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10 Overdrafted Players to Avoid This Fantasy Hockey Season
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- 10 Overdrafted Players to Avoid This Fantasy Hockey Season
Finding a diamond in the late rounds gets all the attention this time of year, but building a winning fantasy roster is just as much about knowing when to pass on a name everyone else is reaching for.
Every draft season, certain players get scooped up well before their actual situation justifies it, and letting someone else take that risk can be just as valuable as landing a league-winning sleeper. Fantasy value isn't about who the better player is in a vacuum, it's about return on investment relative to where you're drafting him.
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A serviceable top-six forward or a elite defenseman can still be a bust if he's being taken at a price that assumes top-line minutes or first-unit power-play time he simply isn't going to get.
With that in mind, here are 10 names being overdrafted heading into this season, players whose current draft price outpaces what the underlying situation actually supports, and where fantasy managers would be smart to let another manager take on the risk instead.
Jakub Dobes
Montreal appeared to have found its long-term answer in net after Dobes helped carry the Habs to the Eastern Conference Final. That may still be true, as the 25-year-old Czech netminder has a career 36-14-7 record with a 2.77 goals-against average and a .904 save percentage.
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The complication is what's happening behind him. Montreal cycled through goaltenders for much of last season, and rookie Jacob Fowler emerged as a legitimate threat, posting a 9-6-2 record with a 2.43 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage after his call-up.
A tandem arrangement similar to what Minnesota or Colorado runs isn't out of the question, especially if Fowler, one of the more accomplished junior goaltenders in recent memory, keeps pushing. Dobes is going as early as pick 82 on average, and while a timeshare would still be a workable outcome, the downside if Fowler wins the job outright is real.
That's a risk not worth taking when established number-one goaltenders available several rounds later at a far better price.
Joey Daccord
Daccord's breakout arrived back in 2023-24, when he posted a 2.46 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage across 50 games in Seattle. His numbers have trended in the wrong direction ever since, mirroring the Kraken's fall from a playoff team to one of the league's weaker rosters.
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Seattle's defense ranked in the bottom ten last season, and the roster did little over the summer to shore that up. Daccord was one of the least productive starting goaltenders in fantasy a year ago, and with nothing suggesting the situation in front of him is about to improve, he's worth passing on towards the end of drafts.
Porter Martone
Calling Martone a bust may seem far fetched, but the issue here isn't talent, it's price. Martone posted 10 points in nine regular-season games last year, followed by five points in 10 playoff contests, and that limited sample has drafters penciling him in as a top-60 player and for a near-guaranteed 70-point season.
That's an awfully big assumption to make about a rookie. Martone is currently being drafted ahead of established names like Connor Bedard, Lucas Raymond and Kirill Marchenko, and anything less than a truly historic season at that price would leave managers disappointed relative to the cost.
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Jesper Wallstedt
Wallstedt, the 20th overall pick in the 2021 draft, is a solid young goaltender who should put together a decent season. But the starting job in Minnesota isn't fully his yet.
Filip Gustavsson reclaimed the net for stretches of last season, including a 12-game run from late February into mid-March, before Wallstedt heated back up to close things out. Wallstedt gets a head start with Gustavsson opening the year on injured reserve, but once healthy, the two could easily slide back into a timeshare.
Any dip in form from Wallstedt once that happens could cost him starts quickly, which makes his current draft slot, as high as pick 60, a risky bet. Names like Jeremy Swayman, Brandon Bussi, Karel Vejmelka and Jacob Markstrom all project for more starts and offer a safer path to value.
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Kris Letang
Letang's draft price is being propped up almost entirely by name recognition as Pittsburgh's veteran core chases one more run. The 39-year-old saw his production fall to just 30 points last season, landing him close to outside the top 300 fantasy players, and there isn't much reason to expect a rebound at this point in his career.
He may well produce another 30-point campaign, but his average draft position still sits ahead of defensemen who offer considerably more upside despite going later.
Brad Marchand
At 38, Marchand is still being taken late in drafts, with an average draft position around pick 145, despite opening the season on long-term injured reserve with a lower-body injury.
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Once healthy, he may find himself squeezed out of Florida's top six as Brady Tkachuk slides into his old spot, likely leaving Marchand centered by either Anton Lundell or pending free agent Eetu Luostarinen.
That arrangement could still work out fine for him, but there are more exciting options available in that same range of the draft, and combined with the injury risk that comes with his age, Marchand isn't worth the cost on draft day. He's better treated as a name to track and potentially add off waivers once his role is clearer.
Anthony Mantha
The lack of offseason interest in Mantha probably tells you something. The 31-year-old hasn't come close to replicating his 64-point season in years and carries a long injury history to boot.
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With a younger, more dynamic option now in the mix who has already shown he can produce at a similar level, Mantha's role is at real risk of shrinking into middle- or bottom-six minutes as the year goes on. Even with that downside, he's still being drafted around pick 142, a range where safer, higher-upside players remain on the board.
Steven Stamkos
Stamkos is coming off a respectable 66-point season and his best goal total since 2021-22, when he also scored 42. But banking on another 40-goal season from a 36-year-old is a stretch. He'll benefit from some exciting young talent on his line in Bourque, but regression feels likely.
Some outlets are still projecting another 40-goal, 60-point year, while a more realistic outcome looks closer to his 2024-25 line of 27 goals and 26 assists for 53 points. His total point production could land in a similar range to last year, but the goal-scoring, and with it his fantasy value, is likely to take the bigger hit.
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Mats Zuccarello
It's never easy labeling a fan favorite like Zuccarello a potential letdown, but the case for a strong encore isn't really there for a winger about to turn 40. Zuccarello posted near point-per-game numbers last season at age 38, but much of that came from skating alongside one of the best players in the league.
Quinton Byfield is a talented young piece for the Kings, but expecting a 50-point player to replicate the production of a near-100-point linemate isn't realistic. Even so, Zuccarello is being drafted as high as pick 127 on average. There are safer bets and better sleeper picks available in that range for a player who has missed 49 games over the last three seasons and is starting to show his age.
Vladislav Gavrikov
Not every value pick works out, and Gavrikov looks like this year's cautionary tale. The 30-year-old defenseman finished with 35 points last season and is going around pick 138, a price that looks too rich.
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Gavrikov leaned heavily on power-play time to reach that total, but with Durzi expected to take over the second unit, that opportunity is drying up. He'll still hold down top-pairing minutes next to Fox, but with better options typically available in that same range, he's more of a name to avoid than a bargain.
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