These 10 teams have most at stake in March Madness bracketology
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These 10 teams have most at stake in March Madness bracketology
Mark Giannotto, USA TODAY·USA TODAY Sports
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9 min read
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The deliberations among the Men's NCAA Tournament selection committee remain mostly private each year, with only a few interviews done by its chair each year on Selection Sunday serving as the only official rationale forwho's in, who's out and where every team is seeded for March Madness.
The 2026 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a fascinating bracket, asseason-long favorites appear headed for a No. 1 seedand a particularly soft bubble filled with iffy resumes comes into focus ahead of Selection Sunday. Like last season, the selection committee will have seven metrics based on computer models and formulas listed on its team sheets and how each is weighed can be a point of contention that has lasting impact given the importance NCAA tournament performance has on the overall perception of a program.
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Each ranking or rating is separated into two distinct categories — predictive metrics and results-based metrics. The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, ESPN's BPI and the Torvik rankings are considered predictive rankings that measure how good a team is based on its offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent strength and location. The KPI, ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB) are results-based rankings that judge how hard it was for a team to attain its résumé.
For many teams, the two types of ratings largely converge by the end of the regular season. For others, however, there can be a wide swath of outcomes based on how a game was played and whether it was won or lost. These are the schools from major and mid-major conferences that often inspire the most robust conversation and debate among committee members, either over their selection into the NCAA tournament field as an at-large bid and/or their potential seeding.
Here are 10 teams with the most at stake heading into Selection Sunday based on their polarizing rankings among the metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee:
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2025: Florida Gators
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2024: Connecticut Huskies
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2023: Connecticut Huskies
(Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
2022: Kansas Jayhawks
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2021: Baylor Bears
(Grace Hollars, IndyStar)
2019: Virginia Cavaliers
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2018: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2017: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2016: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2015: Duke Blue Devils
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2014: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2013: Louisville Cardinals (title later vacated)
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2012: Kentucky Wildcats
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2011: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2010: Duke Blue Devils
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2008: Kansas Jayhawks
(Jerry Lai, USA TODAY Sports)
2007: Florida Gators
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2006: Florida Gators
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2005: North Carolina Tar Heels
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2004: Connecticut Huskies
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2003: Syracuse Orangemen
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2002: Maryland Terrapins
(MICHAEL A. SCHWARZ, USA TODAY Sports)
2001: Duke Blue Devils
(JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY Sports)
2000: Michigan State Spartans
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1999: Connecticut Huskies
(EILEEN BLASS, USA TODAY Sports)
1998: Kentucky Wildcats
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1997: Arizona Wildcats
(H. DARR BEISER, USA TODAY Sports)
1996: Kentucky Wildcats
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1995: UCLA Bruins
(RVR Photos, USA TODAY Sports)
1994: Arkansas Razorbacks
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1993: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1992: Duke Blue Devils
(Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
1991: Duke Blue Devils
(Getty Images)
1990: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
(Ken Levine, Getty Images)
1989: Michigan Wolverines
(Getty Images)
1988: Kansas Jayhawks
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1987: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1986: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
1985: Villanova Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1984: Georgetown Hoyas
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1983: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Getty Images)
1982: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1981: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1980: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
1979: Michigan State Spartans
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1978: Kentucky Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1977: Marquette
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1976: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1975: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1974: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1973: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1972: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1971: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1970: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1969: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1968: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1967: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1966: Texas Western Miners
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1965: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1964: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1963: Loyola Ramblers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1961: Cincinnati Bearcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1960: Ohio State Buckeyes
(Bill Foley, Columbus Dispatch)
1/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
1/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2025: Florida Gators
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
3/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2024: Connecticut Huskies
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
4/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2023: Connecticut Huskies
(Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
5/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2022: Kansas Jayhawks
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
6/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2021: Baylor Bears
(Grace Hollars, IndyStar)
7/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2019: Virginia Cavaliers
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
8/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2018: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
9/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2017: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
10/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2016: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
11/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2015: Duke Blue Devils
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
12/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2014: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
13/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2013: Louisville Cardinals (title later vacated)
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
14/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2012: Kentucky Wildcats
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
15/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2011: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
16/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2010: Duke Blue Devils
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
17/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
18/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2008: Kansas Jayhawks
(Jerry Lai, USA TODAY Sports)
19/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2007: Florida Gators
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
20/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2006: Florida Gators
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
21/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2005: North Carolina Tar Heels
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
22/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2004: Connecticut Huskies
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
23/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2003: Syracuse Orangemen
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
24/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2002: Maryland Terrapins
(MICHAEL A. SCHWARZ, USA TODAY Sports)
25/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2001: Duke Blue Devils
(JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY Sports)
26/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2000: Michigan State Spartans
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
27/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1999: Connecticut Huskies
(EILEEN BLASS, USA TODAY Sports)
28/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1998: Kentucky Wildcats
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
29/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1997: Arizona Wildcats
(H. DARR BEISER, USA TODAY Sports)
30/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1996: Kentucky Wildcats
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
31/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1995: UCLA Bruins
(RVR Photos, USA TODAY Sports)
32/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1994: Arkansas Razorbacks
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
33/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1993: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
34/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1992: Duke Blue Devils
(Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
35/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1991: Duke Blue Devils
(Getty Images)
36/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1990: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
(Ken Levine, Getty Images)
37/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1989: Michigan Wolverines
(Getty Images)
38/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1988: Kansas Jayhawks
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
39/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1987: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
40/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1986: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
41/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1985: Villanova Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
42/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1984: Georgetown Hoyas
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
43/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1983: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Getty Images)
44/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1982: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
45/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1981: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
46/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1980: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
47/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1979: Michigan State Spartans
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
48/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1978: Kentucky Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
49/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1977: Marquette
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
50/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1976: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
51/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1975: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
52/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1974: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
53/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1973: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
54/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1972: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
55/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1971: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
56/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1970: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
57/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1969: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
58/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1968: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
59/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1967: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
60/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1966: Texas Western Miners
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
61/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1965: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
62/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1964: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
63/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1963: Loyola Ramblers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
64/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1961: Cincinnati Bearcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
65/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
The RedHawks' undefeated run through the regular season is one of the most compelling stories heading into this year's March Madness, in part because of the uncertainty about what the NCAA Tournament selection committee might do if Miami (Ohio) didn't win the Mid-American Conference tournament and the league's automatic bid. Well, that discussion is now reality afterMiami's stunning loss to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals on Thursday.
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While the RedHawks' predictive metrics are that of a team from a one-bid league, their results-based numbers suggest they're deserving of an at-large bid into the bracket despite not playing a quadrant one game this season. The selection committee's decision here is likely to shape the larger narrative surrounding the mid-major selection process on Selection Sunday and mid-major scheduling moving forward.
Perhaps no team could potentially benefit from this year's soft bubble like the Tigers, who took another step toward securing an at-large bid by beating Mississippi State to open the SEC Tournament. Auburn's late-season swoon put it in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament and then former coach Bruce Pearl brought a national spotlight whenhe recently argued the Tigers were more deserving of a March Madness at-large bid than Miami (Ohio). Steven Pearl's hiring as coach will get even more uncomfortable should Auburn complete this collapse and not hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
The Tar Heels are going dancing for the second year in a row under coach Hubert Davis, but their seeding on Selection Sunday bears watching. The results-based metrics suggest North Carolina could potentially warrant a top-four seed, especially if it had reeled off a couple more quality wins at the ACC tournament. But predictive metrics like KenPom and ESPN's BPI currently have UNC hovering around the top 30, which would be more in line with earning a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. How the NCAA tournament selection committee views that gap could affect the Tar Heels' odds of advancing and Davis felt pressure after last season's first-round exit from the NCAA Tournament.
The Cardinals could be a quandary to seed, with a wider range of metrics than most top 25 teams. Louisville doesn't have a bad loss on its resumé but it also had just four wins over teams currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament field during the regular season. Its best win is over Kentucky (NET: 27) at home more than four months ago. However, three of the four predictive metrics used by the selection committee – including the NET – had Louisville projected as a top-15 team before its ACC tournament loss to Miami. This seed line will be hard to project on Selection Sunday.
The Hawkeyes are lucky a lot of bubble teams lost this week or else their quick exit from the Big Ten tournament against Ohio State on Thursday might make the next couple days more nerve-wracking. Iowa will enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament having lost four of its past five games and seven of its previous 10 games, including road setbacks to conference doormats Maryland and Penn State. Its seeding profile was already going to be a challenge for the selection committee and the Hawkeyes' recent issues could leave them with a lower seed than expected despite predictive metrics mostly inside the top 25.
March 13: Wes Miller, Cincinnati
(William Purnell-Imagn Images)
March 13: Kim English, Providence
(Brad Mills, Imagn Images)
March 11: Jeremy Ballad, Florida International
(Dylan Widger, Imagn Images)
March 11: Adrian Autry, Syracuse
(Rich Barnes, Imagn Images)
March 9: Mike Jones, UNC Greensboro
(Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn Images)
March 9: Phil Cunningham, Louisiana Monroe
(Scott Sewell, Imagn Images)
March 9: Ed Schilling, Pepperdine
(Melina Pizano, Getty Images)
March 8: Earl Grant, Boston College
(Joe Buglewicz, Getty Images)
March 8: Stan Heath, Eastern Michigan
(Andrew Dolph, Imagn Images)
March 8: Dwayne Stephens, Western Michigan
(Joseph Maiorana, USA TODAY Sports)
March 8: Damon Stoudamire, Georgia Tech
(Jordan Godfree, Imagn Images)
March 7: Rashon Burno, Northern Illinois
(Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports)
March 7: Michael Lewis, Ball State
(John Fisher, Getty Images)
March 7: Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
March 6: Darrell Walker, Arkansas-Little Rock
(Ben Queen, Imagn Images)
March 3: John Pelphrey, Tennessee Tech
(Jordan Prather, Imagn Images)
February 27: Billy Gillispie, Tarleton State
(Chris Jones, Imagn Images)
February 26: Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State
(Chris Gardner, Getty Images)
February 20: Joe Scott, Air Force
(Isaiah J. Downing, USA TODAY Sports)
February 18: Steve Lavin, San Diego
(Steven Bisig, Imagn Images)
February 17: Jerome Tang, Kansas State
(Scott Sewell, Scott Sewell-Imagn Images)
January 12: Marvin Menzies, Kansas City
(Steven Branscombe, Imagn Images)
1/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 13: Wes Miller, Cincinnati
(William Purnell-Imagn Images)
1/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 13: Wes Miller, Cincinnati
(William Purnell-Imagn Images)
2/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 13: Kim English, Providence
(Brad Mills, Imagn Images)
3/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 11: Jeremy Ballad, Florida International
(Dylan Widger, Imagn Images)
4/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 11: Adrian Autry, Syracuse
(Rich Barnes, Imagn Images)
5/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 9: Mike Jones, UNC Greensboro
(Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn Images)
6/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 9: Phil Cunningham, Louisiana Monroe
(Scott Sewell, Imagn Images)
7/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 9: Ed Schilling, Pepperdine
(Melina Pizano, Getty Images)
8/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 8: Earl Grant, Boston College
(Joe Buglewicz, Getty Images)
9/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 8: Stan Heath, Eastern Michigan
(Andrew Dolph, Imagn Images)
10/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 8: Dwayne Stephens, Western Michigan
(Joseph Maiorana, USA TODAY Sports)
11/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 8: Damon Stoudamire, Georgia Tech
(Jordan Godfree, Imagn Images)
12/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 7: Rashon Burno, Northern Illinois
(Jeff Hanisch, USA TODAY Sports)
13/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 7: Michael Lewis, Ball State
(John Fisher, Getty Images)
14/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 7: Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images)
15/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 6: Darrell Walker, Arkansas-Little Rock
(Ben Queen, Imagn Images)
16/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
March 3: John Pelphrey, Tennessee Tech
(Jordan Prather, Imagn Images)
17/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
February 27: Billy Gillispie, Tarleton State
(Chris Jones, Imagn Images)
18/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
February 26: Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State
(Chris Gardner, Getty Images)
19/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
February 20: Joe Scott, Air Force
(Isaiah J. Downing, USA TODAY Sports)
20/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
February 18: Steve Lavin, San Diego
(Steven Bisig, Imagn Images)
21/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
February 17: Jerome Tang, Kansas State
(Scott Sewell, Scott Sewell-Imagn Images)
22/22
NCAA coaches fired during the 2026 college basketball season
The Knights seemed safely in the field for most of February (and probably still get into the field after a dramatic comeback win in overtime against Cincinnati on Wednesday at the Big 12 tournament). But UCF's seed line could test the NCAA Tournament selection committee because its predictive metrics have lagged behind its results-based rankings all season long. UCF's 11-11 record in quad one and two games this season compares favorably with other teams competing for the last at large bids, but the Knights remain outside the top 50 in every predictive metric after a three-game losing skid to Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia to close the regular season and lopsided defeat to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament.
There could be a fascinating debate in the selection committee room revolving around the Longhorns, Missouri and Oklahoma of the SEC. Texas has the best NET, KenPom and BPI rating among the three thanks to its top-20 offense, but enters Selection Sunday with losses in five of its past six games after a first-round setback to Ole Miss on Wednesday at the SEC tournament. Oklahoma's five-game winning streak entering Thursday included wins over Missouri and Texas. Missouri, meanwhile, leads in every results-based metric, which is why the Tigers' spot in the field feels more secure than Texas or Oklahoma. The Longhorns have notable wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt in January, a 2-1 record this season against Missouri and Oklahoma, and several blowouts early to boost their predictive metrics. But they've also got a quad three loss on their resume, something neither Missouri nor Oklahoma have on theirs.
Coach Wes Miller entered his fifth season leading the Bearcats mentioned on hot seat lists and his departure seemed a foregone conclusion once Cincinnati began this season poorly. A surge in recent weeks, including wins over BYU and Kansas, boosted the Bearcats' predictive metrics to that of a bubble team. Their results-based metrics still lag, however, with a quad four loss to Eastern Michigan in November looming particularly large now that they lost Wednesday's Big 12 tournament game to UCF. This year's soft bubble offers a glimmer of hope ahead of Selection Sunday, which could well determine Miller's future.
The Cardinal's metrics aren't going to help them in the bubble conversation ahead of Selection Sunday, especially after their loss to Pittsburgh in the opening round of the ACC tournament. Stanford is mostly outside the top 60 in predictive metrics and outside the 50 in results-based rankings, but a closer look at their resume explains why they will be considered by the selection committee. The Cardinal have a 9-8 record in quad one and quad two games. Most of their competition for the final at large spots have better metrics but don't have an above .500 mark against the best teams on the schedule like Stanford.
If the Rams can't secure the Atlantic-10 Conference's automatic NCAA Tournament berth, their at-large candidacy could become a talking point on Selection Sunday. They certainly don't want to risk losing Friday's A-10 Conference tournament quarterfinal matchup against Duquesne. VCU's predictive metrics lag behind its results-based metrics because its only loss in the past two months occurred on the road against league leader Saint Louis. But the Rams' best wins in non conference play were over Virginia Tech and South Florida. VCU's latest trip to March Madness could be decided by how tough the selection committee perceives the rest of the A-10 to be this season.
