Time and date: Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN
Location: TDECU Stadium — Houston, TX
Spread: Houston (-20.5)
Over/under: 49.5
All-time series: Houston leads, 3-1
Last meeting: Houston 27, Oregon State 24 — September 26, 2025
Current streak: Houston, 3 (1961-25)
A different energy resonates throughout the air in Houston, TX.
For the first time since joining the Big 12, the Houston Cougars enter a season with expectations. Ranked No. 23 in the AP Poll, they enter with their highest preseason ranking since 2016. Fresh off a 10-win season, the Cougars retained head coach Willie Fritz, all three coordinators, and many of last year's top contributors. Fritz orchestrated a rapid rise from the cellar of the Big 12, and now the pieces are in place for conference championship contention.
Oregon State hopes to engineer a similar turnaround in Corvallis. The Beavers enjoyed considerable success in the early 2020s, but the program took a dramatic step backward when the classic iteration Pac-12 dissolved. After stumbling to 2-10 in 2025, Oregon State replaced head coach Trent Bray with JaMarcus Shephard, who hopes to make the Beavers a force in the revamped Pac-12.
Despite the stark contrast between their 2-10 and 10-3 records, the Beavers nearly stunned the Cougars in 2025. Houston stormed back down 14 in the final seven minutes and blocked Oregon State field goal at the buzzer to force overtime. Upon reaching the extra frame, the Cougars escaped on a walk-off field goal.
This year the series shifts to Houston, where Fritz's team enters as a significant favorite in a nationally televised showcase.
Oregon State opened the 2023 season ranked No. 18 in the AP Poll. Three years later, the program is coming off a dismal 2-10 record. The Beavers weren't as bad as their record suggested, at least during the first half of 2025. They led 9-4 Fresno State with under one minute remaining and held a 14-point fourth quarter advantage over 10-3 Houston. But the 0-7 start ultimately proved too much to overcome, as the Beavers slipped up against the likes of Tulsa and Sam Houston late in the season. Now JaMarcus Shephard aims to restore order.
One of Shephard's first major decisions involved selecting a starting quarterback. Rather than stick with incumbent Maalik Murphy, who served as Duke's starter in 2024, Shephard appointed Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson to QB1. Atkinson finished second in the FCS with 3,611 passing yards last fall, delivering 34 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on a 65.8 completion rate. He'll be tasked with improving the efficiency of a passing attack that completed only 14 touchdown passes, while tossing 13 interceptions in 2025.
Atkinson's supporting cast will look considerably different from Murphy's last year. Oregon State loses each of its top four leading receivers, and tight end Gabe Milbourn (17 receptions, 185 yards) and wide receiver Eddie Freauff (12 receptions, 144 yards) are the returning leaders in production. The Beavers turned to the portal for reinforcements, landing former Texas State receivers Aaron Butler and Xayvion Noland and Alabama transfer Aeryn Hampton, who followed new offensive coordinator Mitch Dahlen from Tuscaloosa. True freshman Jesse Legree and former Central Michigan tight end DeCorion Temple could also play significant roles in an offense that ranked 18th nationally in passing attempts per game last fall.
The Beavers produced the 125th ranked scoring offense at 18.2 points per game, but one of their few bright spots was 1,000-yard rusher Anthony Hankerson. While Hankerson is gone, Oregon State can lean on Cornell Hatcher Jr., who turned in his best performance against Houston last season with 93 rushing yards and a touchdown. Vanderbilt transfer AJ Newberry also joins a running back room which possesses plenty of size. They'll run behind an offensive line returning three starters from the Trent Bray era.
Oregon State's defense played particularly well against Houston last September, but the unit lacked consistency throughout the season, allowing over 30 points in seven of 12 contests. This year's unit will operate under the direction of Mike MacIntyre, who previously served as head coach of FIU and Colorado. Despite the coaching turnover, the Beavers still retain five primary starters from 2025, headlined by middle linebacker Aiden Sullivan, the team's second-leading tackler and tackles for loss leader.
MacIntyre's defense should be strongest in the secondary. The Beavers held opposing quarterbacks to a 56.9 completion percentage a year ago and bring back cornerback Trey Glasper and nickel Sai Vadrawale, who combined for 54 tackles, 10 pass deflections, and two interceptions. TJ Crandall, who fractured his foot during fall camp last August, returns after previously last playing at West Virginia in 2024.
Forcing turnovers was a struggle for Oregon State in 2025. Sullivan forced three fumbles, but the team only recovered one all season. The Beavers finished a minus-11 in the turnover battle last year, but a plus-1 margin against Houston played a massive role in the near upset.
Houston won't sneak up on anybody this year. Opponents are well aware of the Cougars' capabilities after last sesaon's 10-3 finish. Last season, Houston was the only team to finish 6-0 on the road, yet comparatively struggled at home with a 3-3 record. The Cougars emerged victorious in six of seven one-score games, hoping that statistic proves sustainable, rather than an anomaly that could regress to the mean.
Returning an established starting quarterback is always a plus, and Houston has that in Conner Weigman. In his first year as a Cougar, the former 5-star Texas A&M recruit produced 2,705 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. However, the reigning Texas Bowl MVP — who regularly dealt with lower-body injuries at his previous stop — surprised many defenses with his mobility. Weigman eclipsed 80 rushing yards in six games, including three outings with at least 110. Although Houston landed the No. 1 quarterback recruit in the country in Keisean Henderson this offseason, Weigman retains his starting duties as a fifth-year senior.
Houston's offense also returns Amare Thomas. The First Team All-Big 12 wide receiver is the conference's returning leader in receiving yards (966) and touchdowns (12). Thomas dominated the production at the position in 2025, as no other Cougar wide receiver recorded more than 13 catches or 275 yards. The group should be deeper this year thanks to the combined development of Koby Young and Harvey Broussard, and the arrivals of transfers Tyson Turner (Texas Tech) and Trent Walker (Oregon State). Saturday will be an emotional game for Walker, who faces his former team after producing consecutive 800+ yard seasons in Corvallis.
The Cougars lose a near-1,000-yard rusher in Dean Connors but reload with Makhi Hughes, who surpassed 1,300 yards in consecutive seasons at Tulane. The former Green Wave star reunites with Willie Fritz, although he eyes a bounce-back season after being underutilized at Oregon in 2025. Hughes will be supported by his former star guard Shadre Hurst. One of the most coveted portal additions this offseason, Hurst arrives as an AP First Team Preseason All-American selection, while boasting some of the most impressive weight-room numbers among FBS linemen. Two former All-MAC stars — center Anthony Boswell and right tackle Drew Terrill — also join a restructured Houston line that ranked in the top 30 in fewest sacks allowed last year.
Houston fielded a solid defense overall in coordinator Austin Armstrong's first year at the helm. Now Armstrong's unit enters 2026 with a healthy mix of returning talent and transfers. While the Cougars lose tackles leader Carlos Allen and sacks leader Eddie Walls on the defensive line, they replace them with substantially more size. Ashton Porter arrives from Oregon as a 6'3", 280-pound defensive end, while defensive tackles Ejiro Egodogbare (6'3", 310) and De'Marion Thomas (6'2", 340) bolster the interior. The front also returns contributors such as Khalil Laufau, who dominated in the Texas Bowl last December, and Brandon Mack II, the team's returning sacks leader with 5.0.
The linebacking corps retains Sione Fotu and adds transfer Jaden Yates, a former First Team All-Sun Belt selection at Marshall who started nine games for a College Football Playoff-caliber Ole Miss team. The secondary offers more continuity, retaining All-Big 12 cornerback Will James and both starting safeties, Kentrell Webb and Jordan Allen. James recorded a team-high three interceptions and broke up eight passes as a sophomore last year, and he'll be supported by new transfers. Jalen Mayo, an FCS All-American cornerback who transferred from Stephen F. Austin, occupies the other boundary corner, while Tulane transfer Javion White takes over as the nickel.
According to ESPN, Oregon State had a 99.3 percent chance of winning when Houston faced a 3rd and 17 with 6:49 remaining in last year's contest. But the Cougars staged a dramatic comeback and now enter as three-touchdown home favorites over the Beavers.
Although Houston was better on the road last season, a home opener against Oregon State should be far more manageable than last September's Friday night road trip to Corvallis. The Cougars might need time to find their offensive rhythm, as they did in Fritz's previous home openers and throughout much of their 10-3 campaign. But thanks to the advantage of their new-look offensive line, they will eventually settle in and rely on star talents like Makhi Hughes and Amare Thomas to sustain drives.
Braden Atkinson has played FBS competition before, throwing for 210 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against Auburn last November. How he adapts in this offense, surrounded by an unproven but promising group of receivers, is the true wild card in this game.
Oregon State keeps the game competitive in the first half, but Conner Weigman and the Cougars pull away with a two-touchdown victory.
Prediction: Houston 31, Oregon State 16
