This weekend, the Michigan Wolverines are trying to do something they haven't done since Sept. 19: win back-to-back games. The Wolverines beat Western Michigan, Oklahoma and UTEP to open the season, but have gone loss, loss, win, loss, win since then. That trend needs to end this weekend against Michigan State.
While last week offered some encouragement in a few areas, it was a performance that left most fans disappointed. Rutgers is as bad as it gets in the Big Ten, and despite out-gaining the Scarlet Knights by nearly 200 yards, only allowing three completions, gaining 14 more first downs and nearly doubling up in time of possession, it was a one-score game that came down to the wire.
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Like we've seen so many times this season, the Wolverines played down to their competition. They were fortunate to win, but in a rivalry game, that won't fly. Let's make some bold predictions for this weekend's matchup against Michigan State.
Michigan will double Michigan State's yardage
There's no doubt about it, Michigan is more talented than Michigan State. Does that mean the Wolverines are going to win? No. Michigan is also more talented than Iowa and Minnesota, and we saw how those games went. Still, the talent advantage will play a factor.
Both teams struggle offensively, as the Wolverines (second-worst in the Big Ten) and Spartans (worst) have the two worst offenses in the Big Ten. However, Michigan has a massive advantage defensively. In total defense in all of college football, Michigan is ranked No. 3 out of 138 while Michigan State is No. 64. The Wolverines have a championship level defense and are going up against an offense that is depleted and struggling.
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Based on that alone, the Wolverines shouldn't have an issue winning the game if they play clean football and don't beat themselves. I think Michigan will at least double up MSU in the yardage department.
Michigan will miss 3+ field goals
Speaking of beating themselves, one big issue that has added itself to the mix the last couple weeks has been the kicking game. If a 32-yard field goal is made against Indiana, Michigan probably wins that game, and without more missed kicks against Rutgers, that game is a lot less stressful down the stretch. Trey Butkowski has missed four field goals the last two weeks, and two of them were from 35 yards or closer.
The Wolverines have opened up the kicking competition this week, but even if it's someone new, it's a college kicker taking his first career kicks under the lights in front of 110,000+ people in a rivalry game. Either way, I don't feel good, so I think the Wolverines kicking woes continue, resulting in three missed field goals.
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Michigan State wins, 20-17
While I stated Michigan is more talented and should win by playing clean football, I haven't seen anything this season that gives me a reason to believe that. At the end of the day, I'm looking at which coaching staff I trust more to get their team up for a rivalry game. I do not trust Kyle Whittingham in that regard right now. His comments from this week calling the game the Super Bowl "particularly for them" tells me he does not understand the importance. It is the Ohio State game? No, but this is still a massive rivalry game that should be treated as such.
Whittingham's lack of emotion and lack of concern about the clear issues this team has are the things that worry me the most. I think he will get a big wake up call this weekend, because if the Wolverines continue to play sloppy football and let lesser opponents hang around, they will lose a game like this one. If you think people are unhappy with Whittingham and the program right now, just imagine what would happen in they lose this one.
Michigan has only had one game this season that wasn't a one-score game (UTEP). Despite the talent advantage, all signs point to this being a tight battle, and the Wolverines aren't going to keep getting away with letting their opponents hang around.
