EAST LANSING -- It's been 1,832 days since Michigan Statelast earned the right to place its Spartan helmet on the head of the Paul Bunyan Trophy.
MSU (2-6 overall, 0-5 Big Ten) gets its next chance in two days when it travels to Ann Arbor to face arch-rival Michigan (5-3 overall, 2-3 Big Ten). The phrase "toss out the records" is sometimes used in rivalry games, but a Michigan State victory on Saturday night would be a real upset.
Some things just have to happen for the Spartans to win. These are three specific things that feel like the biggest prerequisites.
Michigan State offensive lineman Trent Fraley (63) practice ahead of the Toledo game at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Friday, Sept. 4, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
This is sort of true for any football game, but Michigan State's offensive line and rushing attack need to look like they're a worthy foe against Michigan's defense. The Spartans' offense as a whole against the Wolverines' defense is already a massive mismatch.
Michigan State has the worst offense yardage-wise in the Power Four (291.4 yards per game) and the second-worst in the P4 in terms of points (19.9 per game), only ahead of Arkansas. UM's defense ranks third nationally in total defense (250.0 allowed yards per game) and 16th in scoring defense (16.4 points allowed per game). The Wolverines' defense hasn't allowed more than 21 points yet this season.
There is zero chance MSU's offense will be able to move the ball against Michigan if it cannot run the ball. The status of starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is, literally, questionable, and Kayd Coffman looked pretty green against UCLA two weeks ago. The injuries to the team's top three running backs aren't going to make things any easier, too.
Talent is already scarce on the Spartans' roster this year, and the ludicrous injury situation has only made it worse. That's why Michigan State has to be able to run the ball and get four yards or so a pop. Conversions on third-and-long will feel near-impossible with what it has available.
"It certainly has showed up that the team that wins the rushing battle exponentially helps their chances to win (this matchup)," offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan said Tuesday. "I think that would be the case in most games, period, but certainly in this game, that has been important. So yeah, that'll be important for us to find ways to efficiently run the ball and stay ahead of the chains."
Oct 24, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Tommy Carr (14) looks for an open receiver during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Michigan has had its own offensive struggles, too. Former 5-star recruit Bryce Underwood, who started throughout the 2025 season, was benched during the Wolverines' win over Penn State on Oct. 17. True freshman Tommy Carr, brother of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr, finished out a win there, and he's held onto the starting spot since.
Saturday will be Carr's third start. He was one of the main reasons UM escaped at Rutgers last week, going 22-for-27 (81.5% completions) for 266 yards. Carr was responsible for three touchdowns in the 28-21 win (one passing, two rushing) and was turnover-free against the Scarlet Knights.
True freshman quarterbacks are true freshman quarterbacks, though, as talented as Carr is. Michigan State's pass rush has an opportunity here to leave its fingerprints all over this one. The Spartans have only intercepted two passes all season and achieved five total takeaways. They very well could need two or more to have a shot at Michigan, and the best pathway towards that is by causing conflict for Carr.
"As far as when you face a young quarterback, I think the thing that's always in your mind is being able to get pressure," defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said Wednesday. "But that's with every quarterback. Any quarterback, if they're able to kind of sit back there and have the full reads and have three and a half seconds to throw the ball, that's when they're at their best."
Michigan State's Rodney Bullard Jr. runs after a catch against Illinois during the fourth quarter on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Explosive plays will matter a ton in a game between two anemic offenses. Michigan's offense may have found a little something with the switch to Carr, and MSU's defense is much more short-handed than UM's, but the Spartans' best shot is to make the Wolverines earn every score.
Carr led three touchdown drives of 10+ plays against Rutgers, so he's capable of running the offense for extended stretches, but it's also true that the longer a drive goes on, the more likely it is that somebody screws up. A one-play touchdown drive is a heck of a lot easier than a 15-play one, at the end of the day, and they're worth the same number of points.
Michigan State's offense may just have to luck out a few times to get points on the board, too. Maybe it happens because of a great Sheridan play call; maybe it's because Michigan screwed up, but it's hard to see MSU getting enough points to win this game from traditional ding-and-dunk drives alone.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/michiganstate as 3 Keys for MSU Football To Achieve Rivalry Upset at Michigan .
