Every year during the NBA Draft, we see projected lottery picks fall out of the lottery while players nobody expects end up going much earlier than projected. Whether it's a small jump or a major one, there have been some memorable examples in recent years. Last year's draft featured Yang Hansen, a projected second-round pick, going 16th overall to Portland. Ace Bailey, a projected top-three pick, fell to Utah at No. 5 because of how he handled the pre-draft process. This year, there are a few players fans shouldn't be surprised to see rise or fall.
RELATED: 2 NBA teams under the most pressure on draft night
Cameron Carr
Mar 7, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) dunks the ball against Utah Utes forward Kendyl Sanders (13) during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images
Cameron Carr is an athletic monster, and I'm honestly surprised by how far some have him falling in this year's draft. Carr spent two seasons at Tennessee, where he barely played before transferring to Baylor. He had a breakout season, scoring at a high level and becoming an absolute pest defensively.
Carr has a nearly 7-foot-1 wingspan and was an elite shot blocker at Baylor. He also has one of the quickest releases in the draft, while his athleticism helps him navigate put-backs better than most. If Carr can add size and improve his handle at the next level, there's no telling how good he could be.
Don't be surprised if his name is called late in the lottery.
Ebuka Okorie
Ebuka Okorie is one of the most intriguing prospects in this class. Projected as a late first-round pick, he could rise into the lottery.
Okorie had a standout freshman season at Stanford, averaging 23.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting 46 percent from the field. The 6-foot-2 guard also turned heads at the combine, dominating competition and showcasing his 6-foot-8 wingspan.
Some teams are worried about his height, but Okorie's feel for the game could make him one of the league's best scorers in a few years.
Darryn Peterson
May 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Darryn Peterson participates in the 2026 NBA Draft Combine at Wintrust Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
Darryn Peterson entered the season as the projected No. 1 pick after being the top high school player in his class. However, some midseason character concerns and availability issues caused his stock to dip.
Still, there's no denying Peterson's talent. He had an incredible freshman season at Kansas and impacted the game in every facet. Peterson is an elite three-level scorer who can get to the basket at will.
He's projected to go second overall, but if Washington passes on him, there's no telling how far he could fall.
— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead —

