Being a lottery pick only protects you for so long in today's NBA, where talent can emerge from everywhere, and there's almost a surplus of young, talented players.
James Wiseman is probably the main example right now, because the former No. 2 pick is entering Knicks training camp on an Exhibit 9 deal and literally has to beat out other veterans just to keep an NBA roster spot. Killian Hayes , the No. 7 pick in 2020, entered September without a team after Sacramento declined his option, while Cam Reddish already had to go to Lithuania last season before trying to work his way back through the G League.
That's how quickly the league moves. At some point, teams stop caring where you were drafted and start asking a much simpler question: can you help us right now? Devin Carter , Marvin Bagley III , Mo Bamba , and Ziaire Williams all still have NBA opportunities entering 2026-27, but none of them can really afford another lost season.
Two years ago, Devin Carter was the No. 13 pick in the 2024 Draft. Now he's entering Celtics training camp on an Exhibit 10 contract, fighting for either a standard roster spot or a two-way deal. That's an insane drop in security for somebody who's still only 24.
His second season wasn't terrible statistically, but it definitely didn't help his case outside of a lackluster Kings team. Carter averaged 8.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 38 games while shooting 41.4% from the field and only 26.3% from three. The defense and rebounding remain his best NBA skills, but a 6-foot-2 guard who can't shoot consistently has a very small margin for error.
Boston is actually a good place for him to save this. The Celtics value perimeter defense, don't need every guard to play on-ball, and have shown they can develop smaller role players into useful rotation pieces. Carter doesn't need to suddenly become a 15-point scorer. He needs to defend, rebound, make basic reads, and get that three-point percentage out of the 20s.
If he can't win even a two-way spot now, though, the label changes fast. At that point he isn't a former lottery prospect anymore. He's a 24-year-old guard trying to convince teams he belongs in the league at all.
The weird part with Marvin Bagley III is that he actually played pretty well last season. Across 60 games between Washington and Dallas , he averaged 10.5 points and 6.1 rebounds in only 20.0 minutes while shooting 61.8% from the field. He even hit 46.2% from three on very low volume, and his 66.1% true shooting was easily one of the best marks of his career.
And what did that earn the 2018 No. 2 pick? A one-year minimum deal with the Nuggets worth about $3.5 million, with no guaranteed money until the January deadline. That's basically the market telling him exactly where he stands.
At 27, Bagley can't really hide behind development anymore. He's entering Year 9 and has already played for Sacramento, Detroit , Washington, Memphis , and Dallas. Denver gives him a great environment because Nikola Jokic makes life easy for frontcourt players, and Bagley still has enough size, rebounding, and finishing ability to be a featured backup big man.
But this season has to establish him as exactly that. If he can give Denver 15 reliable minutes, rebound, finish efficiently, and avoid being targeted defensively, he should stick around the NBA for more years. If he's outside the rotation again, the next contract might just never come his way. For a former No. 2 pick still in his 20s, that's pretty crazy.
The former No. 6 pick played only four NBA games last season and spent most of his time in the G League, where he averaged 16.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks for Salt Lake City. Utah even gave him two separate 10-day contracts before letting him go again in March.
The Jazz brought him back this summer on a two-year deal worth roughly $7.2 million, which gives him another real chance, but the depth chart isn't exactly empty. Utah also has Jusuf Nurkic , Jaxson Hayes , and Kyle Filipowski competing for frontcourt minutes. Mo Bamba isn't walking into a rotation spot just because he's seven feet tall and can shoot.
That's basically been the frustrating thing for his entire career. The tools make sense: 7-foot, has a huge wingspan, can block shots, and owns a career 35.6% mark from three. In theory, that's exactly what modern teams want from a center. In reality, he's eight seasons into his career and still hasn't consistently earned a rotation role.
At 28, there isn't much prospect status left. This is about proving he can be a dependable backup center for an entire season. If Utah ends up preferring Nurkic, Hayes, and Filipowski while Bamba barely plays again, his future will look even murkier in NBA soil.
This one is probably the least desperate of the four, but after being drafted No. 10 overall in 2021, Ziaire Williams is entering a really important year following the Nets ' decision to decline his $6.25 million team option.
Even after he posted career highs with 10.2 points in 56 games while shooting 42.5% from the field and 34.3% from three, the Lakers picked him up on only a one-year, $3.0 million contract . For a former No. 10 pick entering what should be the beginning of his prime, that's not exactly a good hint from the market.
The frustrating part is that the physical profile still makes sense. Williams is 6-foot-9, athletic, can defend multiple wing spots, and has enough shooting ability to theoretically become a 3-and-D rotation player. The problem is that after five NBA seasons, the shooting still comes and goes, and he hasn't developed another offensive skill to compensate.
Los Angeles gives him a straightforward challenge: play defense, run the floor, hit open threes, and move off the ball. He doesn't have to become anything close to a star, so if he can shoot 36.0% or 37.0% from three and stay in the rotation all season, he can probably turn this one-year deal into another standard contract next summer.
If he disappears from the rotation again, though, things get uncomfortable. A former top-10 pick entering Year 6 on a one-year minimum doesn't get unlimited chances. Williams still has enough talent to save his NBA career, but this is probably the season where he has to stop being a project and simply become a reality.
