5 reasons Oklahoma can beat Florida on Saturday

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5 reasons Oklahoma can beat Florida on Saturday

Jaron Spor, Sooners Wire · Sooners Wire

Fri, November 6, 2026 at 11:05 AM UTC ·

3 min read

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The Oklahoma Sooners face the Florida Gators in a massive game on Saturday in Gainesville. The Sooners enter the game 4-4, teetering on a third losing season in Brent Venables' fifth year as the head coach.

Oklahoma faces a Florida team that's 5-3 but ranked No. 24 in the country in its first season under Jon Sumrall. The Gators are looking for just their second winning season in the last six. If Oklahoma is going to beat Florida, it'll likely be because of these five reasons:

No turnovers by John Mateer

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) throws during the first quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

This is the most important key for the Sooners. Oklahoma has lost just two games in Mateer's tenure when he doesn't turn the football over. Now, one of those was last weekend against the South Carolina Gamecocks , but typically good things happen when he doesn't turn the ball over. He'll need to play a key game of football on Saturday; otherwise, he could be replaced.

The Jason Witten bump

Sep 4, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners tight end coach Jason Witten reacts during the game against the UTEP Miners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Sooners elected to part ways with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle following that loss to South Carolina. In Year 2 at the helm, Arbuckle's offense worsened as it dipped to one of the worst units in college football. Tight ends coach Jason Witten takes over as play caller. I think Oklahoma will come out playing with a lot of energy, as is usually the case when a coach gets let go. Because of that, they could have some success offensively; they haven't been there much this season.

Explosive plays win the day

Sep 4, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III (1) celebrates with Oklahoma Sooners offensive line Caleb Nitta (60) after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Texas El Paso Miners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Oklahoma hasn't had many explosive plays this season, but if there's a game where the offense could have a few, it's this one. The Gators have allowed 48 plays of 20 yards or more. If you turn on the tape, players are constantly getting behind Florida's secondary. That's what the Sooners will need to do on Saturday. Hit those big shots to Isaiah Sategna to set the tone.

Oklahoma's defense responds

Oct 24, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor (1) runs the ball as Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman David Stone (0) makes the tackle during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Sooners' vaunted defense had its worst performance since joining the SEC. Oklahoma allowed over 500 yards against South Carolina. They also were torched for 42 points. Oklahoma's defense should play with its hair on fire to show last weekend was a fluke and not the high standard they hold themselves to. Because of that, I expect Oklahoma's defense to lock down one of the better offenses in the SEC.

Stopping Jadan Baugh

Oct 31, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) runs the ball during the first half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Florida's offense goes as Jadan Baugh goes. Baugh has rushed for over 135 yards in four of the Gators' five wins this season. In the three losses, he hasn't topped 60. This will be the key for Oklahoma's defense to get back to its dominant ways. This game will be won by whoever wins the battle between Oklahoma's defensive line and Florida's offensive line.

Ultimately, Oklahoma needs all five of these factors to come together to leave Gainesville with a win. The Sooners have to protect the football, find a spark under Witten's leadership and take advantage of opportunities Florida's defense has allowed throughout the season. On the other side of the ball, the defensive front must reestablish its identity by controlling the line of scrimmage and keeping Baugh from becoming the focal point of the Gators' offense. If they do all of that, Oklahoma will leave "The Swamp" with a huge win.

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Should Oklahoma bench John Mateer after the Ben Arbuckle news?

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) gets up after a failed 2-point conversion attempt during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. South Carolina won 42-25.

(BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co)

Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Ivan Carreon (82) gets past South Carolina Gamecocks defensive back Kendall Daniels Jr. (5) for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. South Carolina won 42-25.
(BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co)

An Oklahoma fan reacts during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. South Carolina won 42-25.
(BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer (left) greets Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables after the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) greets Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) after the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners kicker Tate Sandell (29) cannot kick a successful onside kick during the fourth quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

South Carolina Gamecocks defensive lineman Caleb Herring (39) hits Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) as he throws during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026.
(BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Michael Boganowski (25) makes an interception during the third quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) celebrates with teammates after returning an interception for a touchdown during the second quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) returns an interception for a touchdown during the second quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) makes an interception and returns it for a touchdown during the second quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Jake Kreul (98) rushes South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) during the second quarter at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) runs with the ball as Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Peyton Bowen (22) defends during the first quarter at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oct 31, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) runs for a touchdown past Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Courtland Guillory (4) defends during the first quarter at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
(Kevin Jairaj, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables shouts at Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Trystan Haynes (14) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026.
(BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co)

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) stands with teammates as they sing after a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. South Carolina won 42-25.
(BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co)

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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: 5 reasons Oklahoma can beat Florida on Saturday

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