Aaron Rodgers enters his age-42 season as the starter for the Steelers, and this campaign will be his last. When you evaluate his fantasy profile, his prime production is deep in the rearview mirror. He hasn't thrown 30 passing touchdowns in a single season since 2021, and his rushing days are entirely behind him. Father Time, as they say, is undefeated.
I'm not going to lie to you. We've been looking at these numbers for a long time. At the beginning of this process, I said no. We watched last season. Rodgers was the lowest-ADOT quarterback in the league and showed signs of age. The dude's over 40 years old. I don't think we're looking at a fountain of youth where he's going to find MVP form again.
But then they bring in Michael Pittman Jr., and I get a little interested. I talk myself into DK Metcalf being pushed out to the perimeter, where he's thrived. We saw him take his shirt off on draft day with Pete Carroll, one of the most impressive builds you're ever going to see. I'm not afraid to say it, and I don't think you should be either. He can challenge downfield as well as anybody. The question is whether Rodgers is willing to take the time to let him run down the field. We're TBD on that. I don't think so, but I'm not going to rule it out.
That league-low ADOT is factually accurate. But you know what he had? He had the second-highest deep touchdown rate last season. When he was throwing deep, albeit not very often, he was effective. Now that he's got Michael Pittman to soak up those shallow targets and Jaylen Warren, Rodgers is going to be comfortable getting the ball out. I get that Kenny Gainwell is gone, but Warren can do a facsimile of what Gainwell did last season.
But if we scheme up some of these deep looks, to me, you get those isolated single-coverage situations because teams are so worried about Rodgers checking down to Pittman and Warren. It's death by a thousand paper cuts. I could see some big games. I think his ceiling is higher now than it was then, even though he's a year older.
I don't think you have to walk out of drafts with him. I know you don't. He's being drafted outside the top 200. He's not a name being called in these standard drafts outside of Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, but I'm leaving the light on. I've talked myself into him as a bye-week replacement, filler, streamer type of guy that you can grab and hold for a month and see what you've got.
If you draft a guy like Jordan Love, who may or may not be your guy for the full season, go ahead and pick Rodgers in the last round as a backup option. If I'm right, if this DK Metcalf thing can be unlocked, then you've got something. If not, you cut loose and move on. Maybe Jordan Love is just so good, if you draft that tandem, that you don't have to go this way anyway. But that's the idea. You wait on quarterback. If you draft a shaky QB1, you draft Rodgers as your QB2 and see where we go.
There's no investment to be made here. Your expectations are low. I'm just planting the seed. I think the future Hall of Famer, the former Packer, can be of interest on a more regular basis this season. Move DK Metcalf outside, add a well-rounded Michael Pittman, and sign me up for being bullish on Rodgers relative to price in 2026.
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It's terrifying, but I think I'm going to be betting my fair share of Rodgers overs this season.
That's partly a market thing, but I do think there is more upside than meets the eye. The future Hall of Famer was as conservative as any QB in the league a year ago, and that sucked all of the fantasy appeal out of his profile.
They added Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason, and while that move didn't exactly shift the balance of powers in the AFC, I think we could look back on it as a transaction that meant more than we gave it credit for.
Pittman is a winner in the short range, and his presence allows DK Metcalf to challenge secondaries vertically. That at least gives Rodgers (second-highest deep pass touchdown rate in 2025) an avenue to upside that wasn't there last year.
It is entirely possible that the 42-year-old can't take advantage. That hiding him was the right move last season.
I'm leaving the light on. To be clear, I'm not playing him this week in any format, but I'm watching his pass diet with interest. I might dabble in the "longest completion" market or something like that as a way of dipping my toe into this profile before the market has any proof of concept to react to.
He might be cooked, and if he is, I suspect it's obvious sooner than later. But if not? If not, this offense could be undervalued in the fantasy/betting markets in a major way.
I expect we see passing development this season; I'm just not expecting him to look like a finished product from the jump (Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts, and Baker Mayfield are on bye in Week 10, a week in which Rodgers gets the Bengals after having Week 9 off).
Did I just call my shot in early September for a game that happens in the middle of November?
Yes. Yes, I did. Book it. Rodgers is QB9 in Week 10.
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This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
