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The Las Vegas Aces (30-13) and Phoenix Mercury (16-27) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on USA.
The Aces are favored by -9.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 175.5 (-110o / -110u). The Aces are a -500 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +360 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Aces vs. Mercury predictionsand WNBA picks, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Aces vs. Mercury Spread:Aces -9.5 (-118), Mercury +9.5 (-104)
Aces vs. Mercury Over/Under:175.5 (-110o / -110u)
Aces vs. Mercury Moneyline:Aces -500, Mercury +360
Aces vs. Mercury Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 Points
Action PRO projects Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas for 13.53 points in their matchup against the Aces tonight, giving us a nice 8.7% edge against the market when compared to her current prop line of over/under 14.5, which is good enough to mark the under with a B- grade in our system.
The primary factor driving her projection down revolves around stylistic play and role allocation in the Mercury offense. Thomas acts as the primary facilitator for the team, prioritizing playmaking and floor general duties. The thing is… against an elite defensive frontcourt like the Aces, her scoring chances naturally dip even lower.
Las Vegas presents a notoriously tough defensive matchup inside, anchored by elite rim protection that limits easy interior looks. Thomas lacks a perimeter jumper, forcing her to score almost exclusively in the paint or off second-chance efforts. The Aces pack the lane on her drives, forcing kick-out passes to perimeter shooters rather than contested layups. In her previous meeting against the Aces this season, Las Vegas held Thomas to just 7 points on 8 field goal attempts.
Her recent game logs highlight significant scoring variance dependent on game script. Across her recent stretch, Thomas recorded consecutive outings under this mark, including single-digit scoring performances against defensive-minded units. She routinely prefers setting up primary scorers on the wings over forcing her own attempt, making high-scoring nights less frequent against disciplined defenses.
Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 Points
