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The Air Force Falcons take on the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie, Wyoming, on Friday, Oct. 23. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on The CW.
Air Force is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Wyoming, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +168 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here's my Air Force vs. Wyoming predictionand college football pick for Friday, October 23.
Air Force vs. Wyoming Pick: Over 44.5 or Better
My Wyoming vs. Air Force best bet is on the game total over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Air Force vs Wyoming Spread: Air Force -6, Wyoming +6
Air Force vs Wyoming Over/Under: 46.5 Total Points
Air Force vs Wyoming Moneyline: Air Force ML -220, Wyoming ML +180
The Falcons have had a successful season after a disappointing 2025 season that left head coach Troy Calhoun with a 4-8 record and no bowl game.
Air Force sits atop the Mountain West standings with a 3-1 conference record, with a potential conference championship preview against New Mexico to end the regular season.
First, the Falcons must face an improved Wyoming team while integrating a new starting quarterback. Quarterback Evan Medders has taken over after a season-ending injury to Liam Szarka in Week 5.
The sophomore has been nothing short of electric on the ground through two games, with five rushing touchdowns and 12 explosive plays in the triple-option attack.
The defense has seen the most improvement since the 2025 season, when the team sat at the bottom of the FBS. Steve Russ returned as coordinator after serving in the same role from 2012-17, implementing a 2-4-5 that uses man coverage on 25% of snaps.
Air Force sits in the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Passing EPA allowed. The defense has been stingy when opponents fall off schedule, ranking in the top 30 in passing down Success Rate allowed and passing down EPA allowed.
Wyoming logged its biggest victory of the season over Northern Illinois in Week 7. The Cowboys sit 3-1 in conference play and look to separate from the pack with a victory over Air Force.
New offensive coordinator Christian Taylor was brought in by head coach Jay Sawvel to energize a lifeless offense. Taylor was a former offensive advisor with the Buffalo Bills, working with former Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.
Quarterback Tyler Hughes has struggled to deliver in the passing game for the Cowboys, but the sophomore leads the team in rushing yards and touchdowns this season.
The Cowboys' nickel defense runs a low number of blitzes and has severe issues stopping the run. Wyoming ranks 130th or worse in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Rushing EPA allowed .
Nearly every opponent has consistently stayed on schedule and posted a methodical drive, as the Cowboys rank 121st in standard down Success Rate allowed.
Even more worrisome for the defense is the poor strength of schedule, as coordinator Aaron Bohl's defense has allowed 23 points or more to the offenses of Northern Illinois, North Dakota State, Central Michigan and Colorado State .
The handicap in this Friday night Mountain West showdown comes down to the ability to stop the rush.
Stopping Air Force's option offense can be a brutal assignment because of the run concepts used, including outside zone, power, pull lead and fullback dive.
Wyoming struggled against a similar offense from Central Michigan early this season, led by former Army co-offensive coordinator Matt Drinkall.
Wyoming owns a mid-FBS Success Rate against outside zone but has struggled against teams running power. Air Force not only runs power as its second-most popular run concept but also does so with eight men in the box in 31 personnel .
The Falcons rank eighth in offensive momentum killer, a stat that measures drive-stopping events such as fumbles, missed field goals and 15-yard penalties.
With Wyoming coming in at 133rd in Defensive Line Yards and 127th in Stuff Rate against the 133rd-ranked strength of schedule, there are signs that Air Force will create methodical drives and bust explosives on the ground.
On the other side, Hughes will look to attack an Air Force defense that sits outside the top 100 in Line Yards. Wyoming ranks in the top 10 nationally in Offensive Line Yards, meaning the offensive line has dominated the trenches throughout the schedule.
The Cowboys thrive on outside zone with two-tight-end sets, posting a 59% Success Rate. Air Force has been fantastic, dominating outside zone at a 63% Success Rate but has yet to see the run concept used with multiple tight ends.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Air Force as a 4.5-point favorite, in line with the current market offering. The difference in this game is the heavy run concepts against defensive trenches that have been incapable of stopping the rush.
The total will likely be brought down thanks to double-digit winds and two offenses averaging more than 30 seconds per play, but neither is a factor for two offenses set to dominate on the ground.
Pick: Over 44.5 or Better
