The Akron Zips take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, Minn. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Minnesota is favored by -23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4000. Akron, meanwhile, enters as a +23.5 underdog and is +1400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here's my Akron vs. Minnesota predictionand college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Akron vs. Minnesota Pick: Under 49.5
My Minnesota vs. Akron best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Akron vs Minnesota point spread: Minnesota -23.5 (-110), Akron +23.5 (-110)
Akron vs Minnesota over/under: 49.5 (-105o / -115u)
Akron vs Minnesota moneyline: Akron +1400, Minnesota -4000
Akron enters Minneapolis at 1-1 after getting handled by Wake Forest , 38-16, before bouncing back with a 45-10 win over Robert Morris.
But I'm not ready to buy into that offensive explosion considering the level of competition and how poorly things went against the Demon Deacons.
The Zips didn't find the end zone against Wake Forest until the fourth quarter, when they were already staring at a 31-3 deficit, and although Cibastian Broughton has provided some juice at quarterback with his arm and legs, Akron is still generating only 0.11 EPA/Play against FBS competition.
Now comes another significant step up in class against a Minnesota defense that should have a sizable advantage in the trenches and won't need to sell out to contain Broughton on the ground.
Akron has shown enough offensively to punish bad defenses, but asking the Zips to consistently sustain drives against a Big Ten front is an entirely different handicap.
Minnesota hung 59 points on Eastern Illinois in its opener, but the moment the Gophers stepped up against legitimate FBS competition, the offense came crashing back to earth.
Mississippi State held Minnesota to 13 points in a 38-13 loss, and even that final is flattering considering one of the Gophers' touchdowns came on a fumble return.
Not to say Akron is a world beater on defense, but I think last week presented a lot of issues for the Gophers offense.
Quarterback Drake Lindsey threw for 279 yards, but he needed 48 attempts to get there, while Minnesota managed only 28 rushing yards, went 4-for-13 on third down and committed 12 penalties for 115 yards.
That's disgusting offensive football, which is exactly what I want to see before betting an under. Lindsay could easily shred here, but I have a feeling the Gophers will end up parking the bus in the second half if they get out to a comfortable lead.
Minnesota has struggled to create much push on the ground, and the backfield is also banged up with Ryan Estrada out for the season and Darius Taylor questionable.
I would assume Taylor would be back, although it could be possible P.J. Fleck holds him out here since he may believe he can win without him. Either way, this Gophers offense will be perfectly content to chew clock, run the ball and win an ugly one.
Fortunately, I don't expect a high-scoring effort because I expect Fleck to be perfectly comfortable winning this game in the mud.
This is one of those games where the spread and total tell two completely different stories.
Minnesota is laying more than three touchdowns, yet we're being asked to clear a total sitting around 48.5, which means the market needs the Gophers to do a considerable amount of the heavy lifting.
I'm not convinced they will, especially if they get a big lead.
If Minnesota gets out to something like a 21-3 lead, there's absolutely no incentive for Fleck to keep his foot on the gas when he can lean on the ground game, bleed the play clock and get out of the nonconference slate without adding any more bodies to the injury report.
Akron's offensive production is also being propped up by 45 points against Robert Morris and two garbage-time touchdowns against Wake Forest, while Minnesota showed how ugly its offense can look without Taylor.
The total has bounced around the high 40s, and 48.5 remains available in the market. I'm more than happy to take an under here, considering Fleck is the type of coach to slow the game down to a crawl.
I wouldn't be surprised if Akron struggles to score an offensive touchdown here, as this is a good get-right spot for the Gophers coming off of an embarrassing loss.
I expect the defense to play better, and the offense will coast to an easy victory, which should lead to an under.
Pick: Under 49.5
