Alabama vs LSU Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

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Alabama vs LSU Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

Vaughn Dalzell · NBC Sports

Thu, November 5, 2026 at 8:30 PM UTC ·

9 min read

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The SEC has some heavyweight title fights going on this weekend, but the biggest has to be #5 Alabama (6-2) at #14 LSU (6-2). The loser of this game may miss out on the college football playoff and given the Tigers' remaining strength of schedule, this is a must-win for LSU. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so we should expect a chess match between Lane Kiffinand Kalen DeBoer.

Some would say this is a must-win for Alabama despite being the #5 ranked team in the new playoff rankings. The Tide's two best wins came against Kentucky when the Wildcats were unranked and a routing of #16 Mississippi State which sent Kamario Taylorand the program into a spiral. A win at LSU would solidify Alabama's spot, but a loss puts their season in the hands of others. Alabama plays Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, and Auburn following LSU; one of the easiest strength of schedules in P4.

Alabama trailed 20-17 to Texas A&M before rattling off 14 points in the fourth quarter to avoid three-straight losses. Keelon Russellthrew for 311 yards and three touchdowns, and the defense forced three turnovers in the win. Alabama has won three straight against LSU and won 12 of the last 15. Sam Leavittand Kiffin will try to break the streak in his debut season.

LSU is coming off two back-to-back big wins before the bye week. The Tigers crushed Mississippi State 31-0 and Auburn 38-17. Sam Leavitt threw seven touchdowns and ran for another in that two-game span, plus Jackson Harris caught four of those touchdowns and totaled 263 receiving yards. LSU's defense has only allowed 281 yards through the air in those two games as well, so nothing should come easy in Death Valley for one of the best home defenses in the country.

Let's dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Alabama vs LSU

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
Site: Tiger Stadium
City: Baton Rouge, LA
TV/Streaming: ESPN | ABC

Game Odds for Alabama vs LSU

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings :

Moneyline: LSU Tigers (-225), Alabama Crimson Tide (+185)
Spread: LSU -5.5 (-110)
Total: 52.5 points

#5 Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2026 Record: 6-2 (4-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 38.2 (12th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 21.2 (T-44th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 27th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 14th

The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense:

Keelon Russelland Alabama found their groove in the fourth quarter against Texas A&M, and I was particularly impressed with Rico Scott. Alabama's offense has been without Ryan Coleman-Williams, so Scott has been one of the players asked to step up. Scott caught a career-high six passes for 156 yards and a season-long 48-yard reception. Russell threw for 311 yards, but the rushing attack struggled with 2.4 yards per carry on 28 carries for 68 yards.

Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Keelon Russell

Keelon Russellhad a bounce-back performance against Texas A&M. Russell threw two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull the Tide up, then seal the deal. He finished with 311 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception on 19-of-30. Alabama has been without Ryan Coleman-Williamsfor the last two games (TENN, TX A&M), but he could return this week, which would significantly boost Russell's output.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense:

Alabama's defense forced three turnovers last week: two interceptions and one fumble (forced three). The Tide held the Aggies to 278 total yards and 2.9 yards per rush, which is light-years better than the 150 rushing yards and 3.7 yards per carry allowed to Tennessee. In the last three games, Alabama allowed 20, 26, and 20 points, but were outgained in yards in their two losses to Tennessee and Georgia.

Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: LB Caleb Woodson

In the last three games, Caleb Woodsonhas racked up the tackles. He had nine versus Georgia, 11 at Tennessee, and 10 against Texas A&M for 30 of his team-leading 63 tackles. Woodson has four games with double-digit tackles this season after having one in three seasons with Virginia Tech. Woodson's career-high is 72 tackles, which he will likely pass this weekend, and another sack (2) or interception (1), and he will have career highs in both categories. Expect to hear Woodson's name early and often.

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#14 LSU Tigers

Head Coach: Lane Kiffin
2026 Record: 6-2 (3-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 40.1 (T-7th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 16.0 (16th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 23rd
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 3rd

The LSU Tigers Offense:

LSU put up 379 and 552 yards of offense in their last two games and went 13-of-26 on third downs and 4-of-5 on fourth downs. The Tigers have found a balance between Dilin Jonesand Sam Leavitt. Jones has 39 total carries in the last two games for 175 yards, and he's also caught 12 passes for 85 yards, for 51 total touches compared to 83 dropbacks for Leavitt. Jackson Harrishas also caught four touchdowns and put up 263 yards in the last two games, so the stars have been shining for LSU.

LSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Sam Leavitt

Sam Leavittmight be playing his best football of the season. In the last two games, Leavitt has thrown seven passing touchdowns with no picks and a rushing touchdown. In his first six games of the season, he had at least one pick in all of them, so this is a pleasant surprise for LSU. Leavitt has 25 total touchdowns on the year (17 pass, 8 rush) and will be a handful in this game with his dual-threat ability. Alabama has only allowed two quarterbacks to throw for two-plus touchdowns on their defense this season, and Leavitt has accomplished that in five straight games. If LSU wants to win, Leavitt will have to be on his A-game, and he went into the bye week on fire.

The LSU Tigers Defense:

At home, LSU's defense has allowed 10, 14, 6, 14, and 0 points for 8.8 points per game! That's one of the best marks in the country, and lately, the Tigers have played their best ball with 17 points allowed over the last two games and 140.5 passing yards per game. LSU has only forced one turnover in that dominant two-game stretch, and the Tigers will likely need to win the turnover battle to beat Alabama. LSU's defense ranks fifth in pressure and first in coverage grades per PFF, and with the Tide ranking 54th in pass blocking, LSU could find success getting to Keelon Russell.

LSU Player to Watch on Defense: DE Princewill Umanmielen

Princewill Umanmielengot back in this sack column against Auburn! While it was only a half-sack, it still counts toward his team-leading 8.5 sacks that ranks third in the country. Umanmielen's 12 TFLs rank tied eighth in the nation, and he ranks second in the SEC in both TFLs and sacks. He trails only Texas' Collin Simmons (16 TFLs, 10 sacks).

Alabama and LSU, Betting Trends

Alabama trends

Alabama has won three-straight in the series
Alabama is 13-2 in the last 15 meeting vs LSU
Alabama is 4-4 ATS and 6-2 to the Over
Alabama is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the Over on the road
Alabama is 3-2 ATS (3-2 ML) and 3-2 to the Under as an underdog with DeBoer
Alabama is 2-0 ATS (2-0 ML) and 1-1 to the Over as a road underdog with DeBoer
Alabama is 13-10-1 ATS (17-7 ML) versus SEC opponents with DeBoer
Alabama is 14-10 to the Under versus SEC opponents with DeBoer

LSU trends

LSU is 4-4 ATS and 5-3 to the Over
LSU is 3-2 ATS and 3-2 to the Over at home
LSU is 2-1 ATS versus ranked opponents and 3-0 to the Under
LSU is 3-2 ATS and 3-2 to the Under against SEC opponents
LSU is 7-9 ATS and 10-6 to the Under as a home favorite since 2024
LSU is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 to the Under following a bye week since 2024

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans Alabama +5.5 and Sam Leavitt Over 1.5 Pass TDs:

"LSU lost to their best two opponents: Kentucky and Ole Miss, so it's tough to have full confidence in backing the Tigers. Alabama has lost two of their past three, and the win came against a Texas A&M that has underperformed. The Tide may be the better team here, and the line presents how hard it is to win in Death Valley at night. The last two LSU teams to take the field against Alabama were nowhere has talented as this Lane Kiffin-led one, but it's year one of Kiffin's tenure. Expecting an SEC title and playoff berth could be premature. I lean Alabama +5.5 and think this should be a one-possession game.

For props, I do like Sam Leavitt over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -130 odds. He's thrown seven scores in the last two games and two-plus in five-straight games. Only Kamario Taylor(3) and Ashton Daniels(2) have tossed two or more touchdowns on Alabama this year, but Leavitt is a gunslinger. He probably becomes the third and final quarterback in the regular season to throw for two or more scores against Alabama."

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