Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325

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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325

Dominik Zawartko, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Jan 30, 2026 ·

5 min read

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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325 appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The time has finally come for the headlining bout at UFC 325 as we bring you our prediction for this Featherweight Championship rematch. Australia's favorite son and Champion Alexander Volkanovski takes on No. 2 Diego Lopes of Mexico in their long-awaited rematch. Check our UFC odds series for the Volkanovski-Lopes prediction and pick.

Alexander Volkanovski (27-4)is 14-3 since 2017 throughout his legendary UFC tenure. After back-to-back losses against Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev, he regained the vacant featherweight belt over Lopes back in April 2025. He comes in the short favorite during this rematch, standing 5-foot-6 with a 71.5-inch reach.

Diego Lopes (27-7) has gone 6-2 inside the UFC since 2023 during his blazing run through the division. After falling to Volkanovski, Lopes secured all the bonuses with a spinning elbow KO over Jean Silva his last time out. He looks to exact his title aspirations with another chance against his rival. Lopes stands 5-foot-11 with a 72.5-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings .

UFC 325 Odds: Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes 2 Odds

Alexander Volkanovski: -148

Diego Lopes: +124

Over 4.5 rounds: -115

Under 4.5 rounds: -115

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Why Alexander Volkanovski Will Win

Last Fight: (W) Diego Lopes – U DEC
Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Many fans and experts alike thought Alexander Volkanovski may be past his prime after losing to the new crop of incoming talent like Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. However, both of those fights were challenges for Volk knowing the odds were stacked against him. In returning to capture the vacant featherweight belt, Volkanovski looked to be in prime shape and turned in a vintage performance reminiscent of his championship run. We know the motivated competitor he's been throughout his career, so expect the best version of him heading into this legacy fight.

Volkanovski is a master of timing and distance control, popping his jabs to disrupt his opponents' rhythm while constantly remaining busy with his foot movement. Not only is he hard to pinpoint for opposing strikers, but he's one of the better boxers in his own right, all supported by his world-class grappling.

We've seen Volkanovski fight his way out of tight submissions in the past, but it's always risky working against someone with the skill level of Diego Lopes. Volkanovski's game plan during their first meeting worked to perfection and although Lopes is expected to make several improvements, the Australia's preparation and ability to adjust in-fight are the reason he's holding onto his belt once again.

Why Diego Lopes Will Win

Last Fight: (W) Jean Silva – KO (spinning elbow, R2)
Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 12 SUB

Diego Lopes' loss to Alexander Volkanovski during his first title opportunity had to have been a massive gut punch for the rising star out of Mexico, but losing to a multiple-time champion like Volkanovski is nothing to scoff at. Furthermore, his knockout over a red-hot Jean Silva only proved that he's levels above the competition, intent on making the most of this second opportunity as it may be difficult to earn a third.

Lopes is arguably the best jiu jitsu practitioner in the division and his ability to use his closed guard as a threat seriously changes the approach his opponents must take when dealing with him. Despite all this, Lopes is eager to stand and strike with some of the best in the world with his own skills evolving before our very eyes.

Lopes' last fight proved that he can put away a dangerous opponent with perfect timing without suffering much damage. His damage against Volkanovski during the first fight accrued over the course of five rounds, but don't expect him to wait that long until aggressively opening up his striking and chasing the knockout.

Final Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes 2 Prediction & Pick

This meeting should be even tighter than the first fight given Lopes' exposure to Volkanovski's timing and fight rhythm. Knowing that he struggled to get many clean shots on Volk his last time out, Lopes may have to get creative with his approach and offer a new look with his grappling.

Volkanovski will likely have already game planned for anything Lopes may throw at him, but he'll also have to be defensively minded over five rounds to avoid any surprises.

I expect Diego Lopes to be much more of a threat in trying for submissions throughout this bout, but Volkanovski may be too strong with his top pressure and ground-and-pound for Lopes to grab anything meaningful. This should be another five-round effort for the current champ and if he's able to win, don't be surprised if he entertains retirement and ending his career in Australia on a high note.

Final Alexander Volkanovski-Diego Lopes 2 Prediction & Pick: Alexander Volkanovski (-148); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-115)

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