American Conference Football 2026 Predictions

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American Conference Football 2026 Predictions

Steven Lassan · Athlon Sports

Thu, Jun 11, 2026 ·

7 min read

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After a successful season, the American Conference is starting over in some ways in 2026. In '25, five teams won at least nine games, Tulane earned its way into the College Football Playoff, while the Green Wave, Navy, and North Texas all finished the year ranked in the top 25. Getting back to that level for this conference in '26 won't be easy with a significant amount of coaching and personnel turnover taking a toll on all 14 teams.

Five teams changed head coaches last offseason, including '25 frontrunners in North Texas (Neal Brown), Tulane (Will Hall), Memphis (Charles Huff), and South Florida (Brian Hartline). Also, several of the league's top contenders were hit hard by personnel losses. Just two teams - Florida Atlantic and Army - return more than 10 starters for '26. In addition to teams in transition at the top, '26 frontrunner Navy must replace standout quarterback Blake Horvath, UTSA needs to rebuild its defense, and a sleeper team like Temple or Tulsa seems primed to make a move up the standings.

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How does Athlon Sports project the American Conference for 2026? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 14 teams in the American for this fall:

Last season was a reset situation for the 49ers in coach Tim Albin's debut. But could a jump in the standings be coming in '26? At his last stop, Albin went 3-9 in his first season but improved to 10-4 in the following campaign. Charlotte should show improvement this fall, but a jump into bowl contention might be too steep of a climb. Sparking an offense that managed only 14.3 points a game last season is the biggest offseason priority, but help is on the way from the portal in the form of quarterback Cole Gonzales (Western Carolina) to push Conner Harrell and Grayson Loftis. Also, Albin dipped into the transfer ranks to find help to restock a line returning just one starter and added an intriguing playmaker at receiver in Jaden Barnes from Appalachian State. Improvement on defense is also needed to challenge for the postseason. The 49ers allowed 36.3 points a game last year, struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and couldn't stop the run or pass. Transfer additions need to make an instant impact up front and in the secondary. Linebacker Kadin Schmitz is an impact defender returning on the second level for coordinator Nate Faanes.

After providing a spark during a late-season interim stint, offensive coordinator Alex Mortensen had the interim tag removed for the full-time job in '26. Mortensen quickly reshaped the program this offseason by signing a massive transfer class and resetting the staff, which included hiring long-time coordinator Todd Grantham to call the defensive signals. Mortensen has promising pieces to work with on offense, including quarterback Ryder Burton who showed potential late in the '25 season, and transfers Rod Robinson II (Georgia) and Bam McReynolds (ULM) to form a capable one-two punch in the backfield. A couple of playmakers need to emerge at receiver, but this offense has intriguing upside. Zero returning starters are back on defense, but that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Blazers after giving up 38.3 points a game in '25. This unit may need time to jell considering all of the new faces slated for key roles at all three levels. Assuming that's the case, Mortensen needs to lean even more on his offense to win early on in '26.

Coach Scott Abell faced a tough assignment transitioning to an option attack in his first year with the program in '25. Despite the schematic shift, Rice finished 5-8 and earned a trip to a bowl thanks to high APR scores. Now that Abell and his staff had a full year to mold this roster and locate talent to fit the scheme, the Owls should be more competitive in American Conference play in '26. However, exceeding last season's win total won't be easy. Former Miami/UCF signal-caller Jacurri Brown won the battle to replace Chase Jenkins (transferred to Kansas) and is tasked with bringing a spark to a passing game that ranked No. 135 nationally in success rate. Brown doesn't need to throw for more than 300 yards each week, but he has to bring more consistency to the offense to open up more running lanes for senior running back Quinton Jackson. A revamped offensive line and receiving corps remained a question mark after spring practice. Abell's concerns extend to a defense that allowed 36.1 points in American Conference games last year and brings back just two starters.

This might seem low for a Mean Green squad coming off a 12-2 record and an appearance in the American Conference title game. However, everything is brand new for this team in '26. Just 44 players return from last year's roster, with standouts in quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young leaving Denton to follow coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State . New coach Neal Brown thrived in the Group of 6 ranks in a previous stint at Troy (35-16 from 2015-18) but was dismissed at West Virginia after going 37-35 from 2019-24. With zero returning starters, new faces all over the starting lineup, and a coaching transition, it may take Brown a season to rebuild this program. The question marks start on offense with a revamped line and significant turnover at the skill spots. Also, the quarterback battle will continue into the fall with Indiana/UCF/Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson squaring off against Chris Jimerson Jr. and Tom von Grote. West Virginia transfer running back Jahiem White should be the focal point of this offense. The transition for Brown's first season continues on defense. Transfers are expected to take many of the starting roles up for grabs, and this unit already had room to grow after giving up 29.1 points in American Conference contests last season.

Second-year coach Tre Lamb has Tulsa on the right track following last year's 4-8 season that included upset wins over Oklahoma State and Army. Another step forward into bowl eligibility is within reach, especially if the Golden Hurricane show marked improvement on offense. Lamb's group averaged 22.4 points in American Conference games last season but found a quarterback in rising star Baylor Hayes. His development should elevate this offense in '26, while running back Trequan Jones (Old Dominion) headlines a group of intriguing transfers at the skill spots. Just one starter returns up front. After allowing 7.1 yards per play in '25, Tulsa's defense surrendered just 5.5 last year. With six starters back, Lamb's defense should take another step forward this fall. A secondary featuring standouts in cornerback Elijah Green and safety Zach Williams should be one of the better pass defense groups in the American Conference. The return of linebacker Chris Thompson Jr. from injury should solidify the second level after Ray Coney transferred to Texas A&M .

Florida Atlantic ranked No. 1 nationally in passing offense behind quarterback Caden Veltkamp and receiver Easton Messer last season. That duo is back to power the Owls once again in '26, but coach Zach Kittley's squad has a couple of key concerns to address to make a push for a bowl. Taking better care of the ball (29 lost turnovers) is a must, and Kittley's offense must solidify a line breaking in three new starters. Although Veltkamp is capable of winning high-scoring affairs, Florida Atlantic won't be able to move up the American Conference standings without improvement on defense. Kittley's defense surrendered 37.1 points a game in league play last season and struggled mightily against the run. The incoming transfer haul should provide help at all three levels.

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Considering coach KC Keeler's long-time track record of success, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Owls easily exceed expectations in '26. Temple just missed a bowl (5-7) in Keeler's debut, which included an upset win over UTSA and one-point defeats to both Army and Navy. The path to six (or more wins) starts at quarterback. A pair of transfers in Jaxon Smolik ( Penn State ) and Ajani Sheppard ( Washington State ) battled in the spring for the starting quarterback job, with Smolik owning the inside track. Running back Sam Brown V ( Rutgers ) should be another impact transfer for Keeler this season, especially with four starters returning to form one of the American Conference's top lines. Also, either Smolik or Sheppard won't lack for weapons in the passing game, as three of the top four statistical options are back in the receiving corps, including standout tight end Peter Clarke. Considering the defense returns only two starters, Keeler may have to lean on his offense more in the early part of '26. Linebacker Curly Ordonez is back to lead this side of the ball, but new faces must emerge up front after Temple struggled against the run last year. The secondary also needs to fill a couple of voids at cornerback.

Perhaps this is too low for a Tulane team that went to the College Football Playoff last season and is 20-8 overall over the last two years. However, the Green Wave return only six starters from last season's 11-win squad, and there's a major coaching transition with Will Hall promoted to head coach after Jon Sumrall departed to Florida. Although continuity was ensured with Hall taking over, he went 14-30 as the head coach at Southern Miss from 2021-24 and there are plenty of concerns about whether or not he can keep this program near the top of the American Conference. If Tulane makes another run at a conference title, it's likely due to a deep group of running backs, which is headlined by rising star sophomore Jamauri McClure. Also, despite some turnover at every level, the Green Wave still have a solid foundation on a defense that limited teams to 23.9 points a game in '25. A revamped offensive line and an unsettled quarterback battle featuring transfer Zeon Chriss-Gremillion, junior Kadin Semonza, and Dagan Bruno. The schedule is not overly daunting, as Memphis, UTSA, and Tulsa visit New Orleans. The gap between No. 1 Navy and No. 7 Tulane isn't that large in Athlon's projections. If the Green Wave find a quarterback, Hall can guide this program back to the conference title game.

The Bulls are another team navigating a significant transition this offseason. New coach Brian Hartline returns only three starters from a squad that finished 9-4 and ranked among the nation's top offenses by averaging 6.97 yards a play. However, with quarterback Byrum Brown and key skill talent following former coach Alex Golesh to Auburn , Hartline and the new staff are essentially starting over. A pair of SEC transfers - Michael Van Buren ( LSU ) and Luke Kromenhoek ( Mississippi State ) - will battle to start under center. Hartline is also relying on portal additions to restock the skill spots, including former top recruit (and Ohio State transfer) Bryson Rodgers, who might be primed for a breakout year with more opportunities. New coordinator Josh Aldridge assembled one of the American Conference's top defenses at East Carolina last season and is tasked with replicating that production in Tampa for a group breaking in several new contributors. The good news for Aldridge? The talent isn't lacking. Up front, transfers C.J. Hicks (Ohio State) and Asani Redwood (West Virginia) were key portal additions to restock the trenches. Florida transfer Grayson Howard could be among the American Conference's top linebackers, while senior Tavin Ward is the lone returning starter on defense and should help to ease the transition on the back end.

Although the Pirates lost several key cogs off last year's team, coach Blake Harrell deserves the benefit of the doubt with a 14-5 mark since taking over as the program's coach during the '24 season. Just three starters are back, and Harrell's rebuilding effort was made even more challenging due to new play-callers on both sides of the ball. New offensive coordinator Jordan Davis arrives in Greenville after helping to build one of the nation's top attacks at North Texas the last few years. The quarterback battle between transfers Emory Williams (Miami) and Mitch Griffis (Texas Tech) is likely to go deep into fall practice. A rebuilt offensive line is the biggest concern for the winner of the quarterback battle, but the Pirates have intriguing skill talent to deploy, including North Texas transfer running back Ashton Gray and receivers Brock Spalding and Landon Sides (North Texas transfer). New defensive signal-caller Jordon Hankins inherits big shoes to fill after East Carolina led the American Conference in fewest yards per play (5.1) last year. Senior Jasiyah Robinson headlines the key returners, while Harrell tapped into the portal for help at linebacker and in the secondary.

While several of its counterparts in the American Conference navigate major offseason turnover, continuity is a key theme for '26 for Army. Quarterback Cale Hellums drives a prolific ground attack after recording 1,223 yards and 18 scores last year. He's joined in the backfield by rising star running back Godspower Nwawuihe, and five starters are back up front to form one of the top offensive lines among Group of 6 teams. The question marks are greater on defense for coach Jeff Monken. The Black Knights only return three starters, and this unit is under the direction of a new coordinator with Darryl Dixon promoted to play-caller after Nate Woody departed to Cincinnati. Replacing the standout linebacker duo of Kalib Fortner and Andon Thomas is arguably Dixon's biggest challenge.

With quarterback Owen McCown returning to headline an offense that averaged 35.5 points a game last season, the Roadrunners should be in the mix for a spot in the American Conference title game. Coach Jeff Traylor also made one of the top Group of 6 coordinator moves this offseason by hiring Western Kentucky coordinator Rick Bowie to call the offensive signals. Bowie should help to elevate McCown's game to another level, and there's no shortage of help at the skill spots with running back Will Henderson III and receivers David Amador II and AJ Wilson returning. Also, four starters are back to form one of the American Conference's top offensive lines. With only two starters back on defense, Traylor's team may have to win its share of high-scoring affairs in '26. A road trip to Tulane is tough, but UTSA catches South Florida, Navy and Tulsa in San Antonio.

Can the Tigers return to the American Conference title game for the first time since 2019? New coach Charles Huff arrived at Memphis after a one-year turnaround at Southern Miss (1-11 to 7-5) and is 39-25 overall as a head coach counting a previous stint at Marshall. With a track record of winning, along with the ability to quickly reload and find the right talent in the transfer portal era, Huff has an opportunity for a fast start. A massive transfer haul brought help to a roster returning only one starter. Included in the transfer class was a pair of intriguing quarterbacks in Marcus Stokes (West Florida) and Air Noland (South Carolina) and several impact defenders that followed Huff from Southern Miss, including lineman J'Mond Tapp, linebacker Michael Montgomery, and defensive back Ian Foster. Early-season matchups at UNLV and Boise State should give Huff a good idea of where Memphis stacks up in its rebuilding process. But with road trips to Tulane, South Florida, and Navy on tap, this team will need to quickly find the right answers and mesh on both sides of the ball to return to the conference title game.

Star quarterback Blake Horvath is gone, but continuity and coach Brian Newberry's ability to plug and play lift Navy to the No. 1 spot in the American Conference predictions. New quarterback Braxton Woodson has flashed potential in spot duty over the last couple of seasons and seems primed for a breakout year leading this offense. Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza leave big shoes to fill in the backfield, but if healthy, Vic Listori could be another breakout player for coordinator Drew Cronic. The line should be a strength with four returning starters. Newberry and coordinator Eric Lewis have a solid foundation in place with five returning starters on defense. However, lineman Landon Robinson is a massive loss, and the Midshipmen need to be better overall against the pass. A favorable schedule should help Newberry's team in its quest to get to the American Conference title game. As usual, the yearly showdown against Army is a non-conference matchup. Also, Navy hosts Memphis and won't play three other top contenders - South Florida, East Carolina, and Tulane - in '26.

Navy over Memphis

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jun 11, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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