Evan Carter is a finalist for the American League Gold Glove in center field. The Texas Rangers outfielder is also a significant liability at the plate.
It's the duality of where Carter is in his career. The Rangers had hoped by now he would be a center fielder that could hit left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching equally enough to keep in the lineup every day. Well, Carter did play practically every day - 141 games - and only went on the injured list once. But nothing seemed to work.
He slashed .194/.288/.315 with nine home runs and 40 RBI, the latter two of which were career highs. He batted .134 against left-handers and just .207 against right-handers as he slumped to bat under .200 in the final two months of the season. At one point, the Rangers turned to Ezequiel Duran in center field because they needed the offense.
Carter has 791 Major League at-bats. He's closing in on that 1,000 at-bat mark that most analysts say is a good benchmark for determining what a player can be. Right now, Carter looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder based on his offensive production. But there is one number that will likely keep Carter with the Rangers in 2027 and keep the Rangers hoping he can figure the rest out.
They don't call him "full count Carter" for nothing. For the first time in his career, he had enough at-bats to qualify for MLB percentile rankings on Statcast and one number jumped off the page - his chase rate. Even as his whiff rate and his strikeout rate were in the bottom 25% of baseball, his chase rate was in the 93rd percentile. He chased just 21.5% of the time.
Combine that with his walk rate, which was 10.3% and in the 65th percentile, and you have a disciplined hitter who is happy to take his walks. But it isn't translating into the on-base percentage the Rangers are looking for.
That's because so many of his other Statcast numbers were in the cold. In addition to his whiff rate and his strikeout rate, his average exit velocity, his barrel rate and his hard-hit rate were all in the 27th percentile or below. It means that when Carter made contact, he rarely made it square.
The worrisome part is that few of Carter's percentile rankings changed markedly from year to year. His chase rate was still low in 2025. The other metrics noted changed little, too. Yet he batted .247 in 194 at-bats in 2025. The Rangers must attempt to answer an unsettling question - is this who Carter is? And, if so, is that enough?
The Rangers were right all along about Carter's defense. It is elite. But given his bat, there's no question the Rangers will bring in more competition at center field in 2027. The question is whether he can overcome it. Without a quality bat, that may not be possible.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/rangers/onsi as This Analytic May Keep Rangers from Giving up on Evan Carter .
