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The App State Mountaineers take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
NC State is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. App State, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +460 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here's my App State vs. NC State predictionand college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
App State vs. NC State Pick: NC State -14 or Better (-108)
My NC State vs. App State best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover the spread at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page , and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
App State vs NC State point spread: App State +14.5 (-1122), NC State -14.5 (+100)
App State vs NC State over/under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
App State vs NC State moneyline: App State +460, NC State -650
On one hand, Appalachian State is already playing above expectations at 3-0. On the other, that 3-0 record comes with two one-score wins over two bad opponents in East Carolina and Charlotte.
The Mountaineers benefited from late-game interceptions in both games, operating on a razor-thin margin. Those bailed the team out from frequent penalties that have plagued Dowell Loggains' team in 2026.
The good news is that he has something in quarterback Malachi Singleton .
Now under OC Mike Anthony (a Kendal Briles disciple), Singleton has thrown for at least 250 yards in every game and has accounted for six total touchdowns and just one turnover.
However, this offense is built entirely around Singleton.
The run game has been harder than it needs to be because of a subpar offensive line. Lead rusher Jaquari Lewis is averaging only 1.27 yards before contact, and it's been up to him to gain the majority of his 186 rushing yards.
In complete contrast to last season, App State's defense has led the way. Its inexperienced front four has held its own in the run game, and Caleb Sandstrom has proven to be a menace, racking up four sacks already (at least one in each game).
Although he hasn't gotten home yet, opposite Sandstrom is Aiden Benton, who has 10 QB pressures of his own.
Granularly, App State has been pretty good, and it's clear this is an improved team from last year. But it's also a product of its schedule, which currently hasn't featured a team worth its weight in paper yet.
Although flawed, NC State will provide a decent benchmark for the Mountaineers, win or lose.
As the saying goes, never underestimate NC State 's ability to lose a football game.
Last week, the Wolfpack found a new way to do just that when CJ Bailey fumbled the football in the end zone while trying to run the final seconds off the clock on what needed to be an intentional safety.
Vanderbilt , down three, recovered the ball for a touchdown and gave NC State +3.5 bettors one of the worst beats perhaps ever.
But what's lost in that game is that NC State was fortunate to be in that position at all. The Commodores racked up 116 yards in penalties and turned the ball over three times, but their side-by-side offensive chart is superior:
Without a dynamic running back to complement him, way too much of the offensive responsibility lands on Bailey's shoulders, and NC State is worse for it.
Davion Gause and Jayden Scott combined for 22 carries and just 78 yards (3.5 per carry), largely due to a poor offensive line incapable of getting much push up front.
We're also seeing the drop-off on defense post-Tony Gibson. What was once a guaranteed top-30 unit has now fallen into the doldrums.
In two games against FBS teams, NC State has allowed nearly 30 points per game (taking out that final fumble recovery against Vandy) and ranks 108th in defensive possession efficiency .
Ultimately, the biggest concern is how this program carries itself right now. There appears to be no urgency, an over-reliance on Bailey with no signs of relief, and head coach Dave Doeren may be coaching his final games here.
That kind of heartbreaking loss has the potential to completely derail the rest of the season.
Most action this week has focused on the total. It opened at 54.5 and was bet up to and through 55, a major key total in college football. Now above 55, the sharp action has died down.
NC State also took a slight move from -12.5 to -14, which appears to be the resistance point.
Singleton is lightly seasoned in career game action, but he's a third-year player who has played in road environments at Notre Dame and Washington . He works well in Anthony's system, spreading the ball around the field.
Granted, the offense is still quite dependent on his shoulder.
NC State is down two preseason starters on defense — linebacker AJ Richardson (bicep) is done for the year, and nickel Asaad Brown Jr. was recently revealed to have left the team after not playing the last two games — and it's all signs pointing down for the Wolfpack defensively.
But ultimately, App State is currently fraudulent. Its 3-0 record is separated from 1-2 by eight total points to two teams in the bottom 25 nationally.
The Mountaineers can't run the ball, they're a heavily penalized team, and the offensive line is inadequate. And I've never been a believer in Loggains.
Expect one more get-right game as Doeren feels the heat crank on his seat before the wheels really fall off against Louisville and Wake Forest in the next few weeks.
Pick: NC State -14 or Better
