For his first opportunity, Ethan Pecko showed much of what we expected from his repertoire after receiving the opportunity to make his debut with the Houston Astros on August 19 against the Los Angeles Angels in a short start of 3 2/3 innings, allowing two earned runs, striking out four, and walking three.
Pecko, 24, pitched in eight games, initially as a starter in five of them , alternating with three relief appearances.
He is not a pitcher with high velocity, as his scouting report on MLB indicates he has to work with his secondary pitches and, from what we saw in the 34 1/3 innings he went through, he struggled with lapses in his command. Although the sample is short, FanGraphs graded him with a 98 Stuff+, and 99 in Location+ and Pitching+.
If we judged Pecko by this short sample, I don't think he has enough upside to stand out among the possible candidates to remain in the rotation. It also sounds reasonable because, based on his potential, he has not been a power pitcher who stands out as a great strikeout pitcher. And, look, it's not that you only need pitchers who make the radar gun tremble, and Peter Lambert was a perfect example with his breakout season for the Astros in 2026.
But when you're 24 years old, velocity almost always tends to stand out among the main weapons of a young arm. Now, it's not that Pecko doesn't have enough velocity on his fastball. What does seem to be a problem here, though, is that his profile would have to undergo a fairly big change to become a better strikeout pitcher.
Houston Astros starting pitcher Ethan Pecko (70). Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
We're not even going to judge him by his 6.0 K/9 rate against the first 140 batters he faced in his Major League debut season, although it was one-third lower than the 9.8 he recorded alongside a 5-10 record and a .435 ERA while pitching at the Triple-A level.
The underwhelming expectations begin with his low 15.7 whiffs% rate when he threw the sinker, the pitch he used the most, recording a 22.6%.
The league averaged just .223 xBA and .311 xSLG, but the potential to generate swings and misses remained well below that. Then comes the inconsistency of the fastball, with which he allowed three of the five home runs hit against him.
With just those two pitches, Pecko accounted for 43.4% of his repertoire, leaving a heavy burden on the sweeper for the most difficult situations. He did quite well, allowing only .131 with a 31.0 whiffs percentage. At the end of his mix are the changeup and the curveball, two pitches that Pecko does not yet fully trust, but that could improve and become the adjustment that drives a major change in the future.
Looking at it this way, I see it as quite clear that his projections as a pitcher are far from offering a reliable profile to compete for a spot in the starting rotation.
In fact, Pecko did much better when he came out of the bullpen, to the point that his .825 OPS allowed as a starter against 91 batters faced dropped considerably to just .359 in 49 matchups.
We know all too well that the Astros need starters, as they just finished with the third-worst quality start percentage in the American League (27%) and the fourth-lowest average in innings pitched per start (4.8).
For that reason, the role I see as the best fit for Pecko is being an opener or a reliever for specific situations, which would also allow us to see a little more of him in the future.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/astros/onsi as Astros Have a Difficult Decision To Make With Ethan Pecko After MLB Debut .
