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The Ball State Cardinals take on the UMass Minutemen in Amherst, Massachusetts, on Wednesday, November 4. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
UMass is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. Ball State, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +134 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here's my Ball State vs. UMass predictionand college football pick for Wednesday, November 4.
Ball State vs. UMass Pick: UMass ML -150 (Play to -155)
My UMass vs. Ball State best bet is on the Minutemen to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Ball State vs UMass point spread: UMass -2.5, Ball State +2.5
Ball State vs UMass over/under: 49 Total Points
Ball State vs UMass moneyline: Ball State ML +115, UMass ML -140
Ball State is on a positive trajectory.
Behind a revitalized offense, playmaking quarterback Keldric Luster, and explosive potential, Ball State covered all of its October games (4-0).
Aside from being overmatched by Northwestern, the Cardinals have averaged 30 points over their last three MAC games.
Granted, those last two games came against a struggling Bowling Green on a miraculous last play in regulation and an FBS-worst Sacramento State at home.
Ball State's biggest deficiency comes in its red-zone defense, or lack thereof. The Cards are worst in the FBS, allowing a 46% Success Rate inside the 20, and 41% of those red zone drives turn into touchdowns (132nd).
Even outside the red zone, this Ball State defense is a liability; it ranks 128th in explosive play rate allowed.
This is a team that wants to hold the ball (27.2 seconds per play, 90th) and hope that Luster hits on a couple of big plays downfield to keep pace.
There's not much of a run game, especially anything explosive outside of a Luster scramble, and the receiving corps hasn't produced much.
It's easy to dismiss the last two wins as playing two bad teams and, sure, I can hear that argument.
But this Ball State offense has explosive potential enough to threaten teams in short bursts; any defensive performance above expectation is enough to steal a win in the MAC.
UMass went from America's sweetheart to down and out instantly. Though electric quarterback Pop Watson wasn't lost for the season, the Minutemen haven't been the same since he sustained an injury to start October.
That 38-14 loss to Eastern Michigan in front of a record crowd at home threw a wet blanket on the inferno. Since then, UMass has lost four straight.
Watson returned to the lineup against UConn, but he didn't get much going, and UMass was walloped, 35-16 (13 of those came in the fourth quarter).
The aggressive UMass defense was gouged on the ground, and it gave up too many explosive plays to hang.
That UMass defense still does two things exceptionally well: rush the passer and limit yards through the air. The Minutemen log a sack on 8.8% of opposing dropbacks (19th) and sit 18th in yards per dropback allowed thanks to some talent in the secondary.
It's hard to ignore the setup of that 4-0 start. UMass shocked Rutgers (no fluke, the Minutemen thoroughly outplayed the Scarlet Knights), then beat two low-level FCS teams and FBS team No. 138 in Sacramento State. Tally one upset and three wins over nobodies.
And then it went 0-4 against mid-level FBS competition, including 0-1 with Watson back.
A first impression is a lasting one. That might be a problem given the most recent developments with UMass as the season moves along.
Hello, college football diehards — this game carries massive bowl game implications between 4-4 UMass and 3-5 Ball State.
While neither is eliminated with a loss, chances to clinch that bowl spot become scant after this week. UMass hasn't played in the postseason since 1972 (the FBS' longest drought), while Ball State hasn't seen a postseason game since 2021.
Ball State also hasn't won a midweek MACtion road game since 2023 (2-7 since 2022). Sacramento State aside, this is Ball State's furthest conference road game possible.
Though attendance was still up against Miami, Warren McGuirk Stadium's 13,900 is still a 10% drop from the previous game's sellout. Patience wears thin quickly in Amherst.
Ball State's offensive line hasn't done a great job of protecting Luster this season, leading to 80 pressures (fifth in the MAC) and requiring 24 scrambles (second-most). Against a pass rush like UMass, that spells disaster.
The Cardinals haven't shown the ability to lean on their run game and win despite Luster not getting going. UMass has the horses in the secondary and up front to harass Luster and keep the offense off schedule.
The urgency to snap the 50-plus-year bowl drought is greatest in Amherst.
