Baylor is coming off a massive win in Tempe two weeks ago , but the momentum stalled a little as the Bears were forced to use their bye week. But that's not necessarily a negative thing. Quarterback DJ Lagway has been nursing an ankle injury and he was able to use that week to get healthier for the grind of Big 12 play .
We will see just how healthy Lagway is on Saturday when Baylor hosts rival TCU . The Horned Frogs haven't lived up to expectations, sitting at 2-3 this season. But you can typically throw records out the window when these two teams play .
The staff of Baylor on SI predicted over/unders for three players and the Bears' defense against the Horned Frogs on Saturday.
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Gavin Freeman leads the team with 42 receptions and has only been under this mark one time. However, TCU has the No. 2 ranked passing defense in the Big 12 and has allowed just one opponent to throw for more than 200 yards. Look for the Horned Frogs to key on Freeman and Baylor can attack the TCU defense elsewhere.
I'm taking the OVER on this one. I see Baylor's offense trying to spread out the TCU defense by using various receivers this week, but Gavin Freeman has good hands and is dangerous in space. Freeman will catch 7 or more passes in this game.
Freeman averages a nation-leading 8.4 receptions per game. He will continue to be a target for Lagway until he proves that he shouldn't be, I expect him to get targeted downfield but also get a number of swing/checkdown passes.
I think there's no stopping Gavin Freeman's pace for a season with 100-plus receptions. TCU is only allowing 155 yards per game, but has severely struggled to cover the short-volume routes, and that's where Freeman excels.
After what I've seen from Gavin Freeman this season, I can't take his under. He's been Lagway's go-to guy, and I expect that to continue this Saturday against TCU. Freeman has averaged 8.4 receptions over his last five games, so I like him to go over 6.5 receptions in this matchup.
Freeman has hovered right around this figure the past 3 weeks, but TCU has been successful in limiting #1 WRs so far this year. They allowed North Carolina's Jordan Shipp to catch 5, while the other four caught just three passes each. I think Baylor's passing game will be more than functional, but TCU is going to force them to spread the love.
I think Gavin Freeman is always poised for a big game, and after the BYE Week, he should be refreshed and ready to do more spectacular things. My rationale is that if Baylor is struggling offensively, they go to their safety blanket, Gavin Freeman, in the screen game and over the middle. If Baylor is winning comfortably, then that is probably due to Gavin Freeman and the 8 catches he already has. No matter what, Freeman is schemed to get the ball.
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If Baylor is going to win this game, DJ Lagway will have to play well. He's coming off his best performance two weeks ago against Arizona State and if that version of Lagway continues to show up - watch out. Baylor's going to air the ball out a lot and that will provide Lagway with ample opportunity.
With the tempo and length of drives that Baylor wants to run, I'm taking the OVER here. Even if a large portion of the Bears' offense gets dedicated to plays other than Lagway throwing the ball, he should be able to exceed 226 passing yards in this game.
Lagway has thrown for 830 yards over three starts. Missing the 225 mark would be uncharacteristic for him. The TCU defense is sound, but Lagway has only gotten more comfortable and impressive as the season has gone on; I think he clears this line pretty easily.
Although TCU is 2nd in passing yards allowed after holding BYU to just 62 passing yards, they also gave up 160 passing yards on just 20 attempts against UCF. Lagway will likely have over 30 passing attempts and should be able to reach 225 plus
I think DJ Lagway will hit the over on 225 passing yards in this matchup. I expect TCU to keep the game relatively close, which should force Baylor to continue throwing the football throughout the game. However, TCU has an impressive defensive line, so I don't expect Baylor to rely heavily on the run unless it can establish that part of its offense early. If the Bears struggle to find success on the ground, I think Lagway will have plenty of opportunities to reach 225 passing yards.
TCU might have a stingy pass defense, but I think Lagway will sail over this on pure volume. Lagway has thrown the ball 44 times per game, and he went just under this line against Colorado, despite only completing 19 of 39 pass attempts. I could even see Baylor going run-heavy in the second half if they build a sizable lead, but this number is too low not to take the over.
I am fully bought into DJ Lagway and his ability to do whatever he wants on a football field. DJ grew up as a Baylor fan, and he knows what this game means to the fans and students. After the ASU game, I do not doubt his ability to push the ball downfield. The one conflicting variable here is TCU's defensive line, which is one of the strongest in the conference. If Lagway can get a clean pocket and some time, I think he could push 250+ passing yards in this game
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Baylor's defense has forced two or more takeaways in three of its games so far. TCU will enter McLane Stadium with a -2 turnover margin and quarterback Jaden Craig has shown he can get rattled and make poor decisions. It's going to take the Bears' defense to be opportunistic, but they've shown they will be.
UNDER is my pick here. Baylor's defense has been impressive, smothering, and stifling, but they haven't created an astronomical amount of turnovers this season. Averaging one interception a game isn't a bad number, and I do think that the Bears get a pick against TCU, but I don't think they'll have more than that.
This one is tough; Baylor hasn't forced an absurd amount of turnovers yet this season. The defense's success has mostly come in the red zone and forcing quick punts. It is so hard to know, but I trust that the Baylor defense is good, and the TCU offense is in a rough patch. The Bears should find a way to hit the over here.
Jaden Craig hasn't looked bad, but all of his turnovers have come once their schedule got to Power-Four teams. Baylor's defense has forced ten takeaways this year and will likely get an interception or two, and maybe even force a fumble.
I think Baylor will come away with at least one interception in this matchup, but I'm leaning toward the under on 1.5 takeaways. The Bears have played really well defensively this season, allowing just 14.2 points per game through their first five games. However, I think their success against TCU will come more from forcing third-down stops, and making it difficult for the Horned Frogs to sustain drives rather than consistently creating turnovers. This Baylor defense has the potential to force multiple takeaways, but I'm leaning toward the under in this matchup.
TCU committed four turnovers against UCF and one in each of its other games. Baylor has forced 10 turnovers in five games and will be just the second formidable defense TCU has faced. Poor weather made last week's matchup with BYU a low-scoring, run-heavy affair, but I expect TCU to throw more against Baylor, creating plenty of opportunities for interceptions.
I think Baylor forces two turnovers this weekend. I envision Baylor getting an interception at the hands of Jaden Craig in the first half, and while the game is dwindling and TCU tries to force their way upfield, I think Craig throws another interception.
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Baylor's rushing attack finally broke loose against Arizona State, rushing for 244 yards. But the Bears' run game has been fairly pedestrian from what we're used to seeing. And the TCU defensive front is very good. The most yards the Horned Frogs have given up on the ground was against BYU, which had 154 yards. Baylor will have to lean on Lagway in this one.
This one comes down to the true match-up of the week; Baylor's O-Line vs. TCU's D-Line. I'm going to take the OVER on this one. Again, with the tempo and length of drive that Baylor is looking for, being able to run for at least 160.5 yards should be well within the realm of possibility. Two big runs like the Bears had against ASU alone (63, 75) would have Baylor at near that total.
This TCU defensive line is going to pose a real problem for the Bears in the trenches; I think it will take a while for the Baylor running backs to get their feet under them. Hopefully, the O-line can carry over its confidence from their amazing performance at ASU, but I think Baylor narrowly misses this mark.
TCU has an exceptional run defense, ranked 23rd nationally, allowing 99.6 yards per game. Baylor excelled with 244 yards against Arizona State; I believe TCU will hold up the front and force Baylor to air it out more.
Unless we see a long breakaway run like we did against Arizona State, I don't think Baylor will go over 160.5 rushing yards in this game. One of TCU's strengths is its defensive line, and I think they'll do a decent job of containing Baylor's run game. I'm leaning toward the under in this matchup.
TCU has been stout against the run, allowing just 100 rushing yards per game despite offensive struggles that should give opponents plenty of opportunities to run out the clock while protecting leads. That doesn't bode well for Baylor's inconsistent ground game. I'm far more confident in Baylor's passing attack, and I don't think the Bears will blow TCU out enough to run the ball all second half.
I think Baylor will be just short of the mark here. TCU's defensive line is the one unit that has been strong through five games, and while I do believe the Baylor offensive line and running backs turned a corner against Arizona State, I do think that battle will be more contested than many expect it to be. A way my prediction of under could get squashed is via design runs for DJ Lagway, who Aranda claims is fully healthy after the BYE.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/baylor as Baylor Football Staff Picks: Over/Under Predictions for 3 Players, Bears' Defense vs. TCU .
