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Behind The Numbers: Week 4 Big Sky Preview
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- Behind The Numbers: Week 4 Big Sky Preview
UC Davis Aggies quarterback Treynor Cleeland (5) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Our annual "Behind The Numbers" series returns here at FCS Football Central ahead of the 2026 college football season. You may be familiar with our Behind The Numbers recap each week, but we wanted to expand the series this year. We have added a preview series, which will spotlight the biggest games in each conference across the country.
Our goal with this new addition is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.
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We kick off our Week 4 previews with the Big Sky , which features two massive Top 25 matchups this weekend.
Utah Tech at Northern Colorado
Can Northern Colorado's run game bounce back?
After Northern Colorado's run game looked outstanding against Weber State (259 yards), it came to a screeching halt against D2 Northeastern State last weekend. The Bears only had 104 total yards on 4.2 yards per carry. Northern Colorado needs to reestablish the ground game, especially against this Utah Tech defense. The Trailblazers are giving up nearly 6 yards per carry and over 200 yards per game on the ground.
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Cal Poly at Eastern Washington
Which defenses can slow down these passing attacks?
Cal Poly and Eastern Washington both have Top 35 offenses this year. This is an interesting Big Sky quarterback battle between Anthony Grigsby Jr. and Nate Bell. The Mustangs rank 96th in defensive success rate, while the Eagles are even worse at 108th nationally. The X-factor in this matchup will be Cal Poly running back Jaden Green, who had 126 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry.
Portland State at Weber State
Can Weber State lean on its rushing attack?
Weber State has debuted a wide-open, spread attack under new head coach Eric Kjar. However, it has been the run game that has become the most effective weapon for this offense. The Wildcats rank 2nd in the Big Sky in yards per carry (5.3) and rushing yards per game (167.5). Spencer Ferguson has led this attack with 248 total yards and 6.7 yards per carry. On the other side, Portland State enters this game with a defense that ranks 126th nationally in total defensive efficiency. The Vikings have not been great against the run, allowing 5.7 yards per carry.
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No. 14 Idaho State at Southern Utah
How real is this Idaho State defense?
For years under head coach Cody Hawkins, this Idaho State team has been led by an explosive offense. Unfortunately, that has always been paired with a defense that allows a ton of points, but that hasn't been the case this season. Idaho State currently has the 9th-most efficient defense in the country (32.8% success rate), plus this unit ranks 1st in the Big Sky in yards per play allowed (4.6).
Against Southern Utah, it will be the run defense that is put to the test against Will Burns and Floyd Chalk IV. The Bengals rank 36th nationally in defensive run efficiency. Jordan Cooke and this offense will find ways to score points, especially with Idaho State's offense leading the Big Sky in yards per play (7.3). Idaho State's ceiling will be determined by how good this defense can be week-to-week.
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No. 5 Montana at No. 10 UC Davis
Can Montana get this passing attack going?
We know the foundation of Montana's offense is Eli Gillman and the run game; however, the Aggies have answered all the preseason questions we had about their run defense. The Aggies have the No. 1 rushing defense in the Big Sky, allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. UC Davis also ranks 2nd in the country with a 33.6% stuff rate (Tackles made at or behind the LOS). If the Aggies can win on early downs, putting Montana's offense into 3rd-and-long situations, the Grizzlies could be in an uncomfortable spot.
Montana has been terrible on 2nd/3rd-and long. They have a "passing down" success rate of only 22.6%, which ranks 103rd nationally. The biggest reason for this is that the passing game is just not clicking. This isn't because Ah Yat is being pressured into mistakes. In fact, no other Top 25 team has been under less pressure than Ah Yat this year.
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The Griz rank 62nd nationally in passing success rate. According to PFF, Montana's YAC per reception is down from 7.0 last year to 5.6 this year. They have not been able to find a consistent replacement for the production that Michael Wortham gave them a year ago.
On the other side, UC Davis has been an excellent, all-around offense. While the volume has not been high, the rushing attack with Jordan Fisher and Matteo Perez has been effective, ranking 24th nationally in rushing success rate. The passing game has also been solid, ranking 26th nationally. A lot of that is tied to the chemistry that Treynor Cleeland and Samuel Gbatu Jr. have had.
Montana has to find a way to generate pressure on Cleeland, making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Tyler King ranks Top 10 in pressures, but the Griz aren't getting much production from anyone else along the defensive line.
The X-factor for this game will be UC Davis wide receiver Zach Jones, who has become one of the most electric weapons in the country. He's averaging 32.7 yards per return and already has 2 punt return TDs, both of which lead the Big Sky. For Montana, the Grizzlies have to play a clean game. The Griz have 33 penalties this season, by far the most in the Big Sky. Montana has to execute well if they want to win this game on the road.
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No. 18 Northern Arizona at No. 1 Montana State
Can Northern Arizona get enough stops to keep this one close?
Regardless of how you look at it, this Montana State offense is still an elite unit. The Bobcats rank 4th in the FCS in total success rate (52.8%), limit negative plays (7th), and are effective in 3rd-and-long situations (11th). Besides a few turnovers last week, this unit has been a well-oiled machine.
Northern Arizona's defensive numbers are not good at all. They are allowing a success rate of 50.4%, which ranks 107th nationally, while they also rank outside the Top 100 against the pass (100th) and the run (115th). The only reason their points per game allowed look respectable is because they have forced some key turnovers.
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Historically, this isn't a reliable formula for a successful defense. The Lumberjacks are going to hope they can keep forcing turnovers and get stops inside the red zone, because the data suggests that they aren't going to be able to slow down Montana State's offense otherwise.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/fcs as Behind The Numbers: Week 4 Big Sky Preview .
