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Behind The Numbers: Week 9 FCS Football Review
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- Behind The Numbers: Week 9 FCS Football Review
Youngstown State wide receiver Lynn Wyche-El (1) | Youngstown State Athletics
It's time for another edition of our Behind The Numbers series here at FCS Football Central .
Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups, using success rate to get a deeper look than what the final score may tell you about what really happened in the game. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to win the game, and which teams got outplayed but still escaped with a win.
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Success rate takes out a lot of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.
The average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.
We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS football action in Week 9.
Quick Hits:
South Dakota State 31, South Dakota 21
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South Dakota State held off a late South Dakota comeback in one of the biggest games of the season. The Jackrabbits completely dominated the first half, rolling up 301 total yards on 42 plays (7.2 YPP). In that same half, the Coyotes only had 44 total yards on 23 plays (1.9 YPP). Of those 23 first-half plays, seven of them were tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage.
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The Coyotes punted seven times in this game, going 3-and-out on five of their first seven drives. Neither team was efficient on passing downs, but South Dakota State had a consistently effective ground attack. The Jacks had a rushing success rate of 41.7%, while holding South Dakota to a rushing success rate of only 22.7%.
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SDSU's offensive line allowed only two pressures, which led to Chase Mason having one of his better games. He completed 7 of 12 passes on throws of 10 or more yards downfield. Austyn Modrzewski did show to be more effective when he had time to throw and was able to step up into the pocket. Despite the terrible start, the Coyotes finished with a 48.3% success rate on all dropbacks. Overall, Modrzewski was very accurate with the ball.
Tennessee Tech 24, ETSU 17
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This was an incredibly physical, chippy game. These teams combined for 19 penalties for over 150 yards, which included 14 penalties on the Golden Eagles. In fact, four of ETSU's 19 first downs came through Tennessee Tech penalties. For the most part, Tennessee Tech was able to dominate this game with its defense.
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ETSU only averaged 4.4 yards per play, and after scoring TDs on its second and third drives, the Bucs went on to kick a FG on a short field, punt, miss a FG, with 30 of their 57 yards coming by way of penalties, and then punted on their next two drives. They also finished the game with a turnover on downs on their final drive.
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ETSU was held to an awful 26.5% success rate on passing plays, while Mason Mims only averaged 3.6 yards per attempt. Josh Hand and Hudson Tucker were a thorn in ETSU's side all game, pressuring him in the pocket. The duo combined for 3.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks, which kept Mims uncomfortable all game.
UAlbany 45, Campbell 35
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The Great Danes got a massive CAA win in a shootout against Campbell, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Both teams had about a 40% success rate offensively, which is actually an average day, but explosive plays and defensive scores were the story of this game. UAlbany scored twice defensively, which completely changed this game. The Camels fumbled the ball five times, losing two of those.
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UAlbany's offense generated five explosive plays that went over 20 yards; the biggest of them all was Rashan La Mons' 63-yard touchdown run. For all the fireworks, Campbell ended the game very poorly. The Camels only generated seven total yards on their final 13 plays, resulting in a punt and two turnovers on downs. They blew their chance for the comeback with their poor offensive execution late in this game.
Stephen F. Austin 37, Houston Christian 6
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Stephen F. Austin continues to pour it on opponents, outscoring their last three opponents 138-30. This week, they finished with 14 TFLs and 8 sacks in another blowout win over Houston Christian. Emmanuel Harris and K'Mard Kimble led the charge with a combined 5 TFLs and 4 sacks. They also held the Huskies to 81 rushing yards on 41 carries, allowing only 2 yards per carry.
Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 9?
In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success-rate margin (OFF SR-DEF SR). This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.
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Montana State (Net SR: 35.4%)
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Incarnate Word (Net SR: 35%)
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Towson (Net SR: 33.8%)
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Alcorn State (Net SR: 32%)
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Central Connecticut State (Net SR: 31.4%)
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South Carolina State (Net SR: 27.5%)
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Colgate (Net SR: 27.2%)
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Abilene Christian (Net SR: 25.8%)
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Lamar (Net SR: 24.3%)
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Weber State (Net SR: 18.8%)
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Tarleton State (Net SR: 17.1%)
Montana Statereally silenced some of the narratives surrounding this team. They were up 41-0 on Cal Poly with 10 minutes to go in the second quarter. Montana State's defense forced a punt or turnover on Cal Poly's first six drives of the game, while also doing it on nine of their 10 total drives. Cal Poly only had 52 total yards on its first 23 plays. The Bobcats rolled up 299 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per carry, continuing their success on the ground.
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Incarnate Wordscored 66 points, while holding Northwestern State to only 2.9 yards per play and a 19% success rate. Towsonfinally got its first win of the season, dominating Hampton in a 44-13 win. The Tigers held the Pirates to 47 rushing yards on 23 carries, while their offense finished with 334 rushing yards on 8.4 yards per carry.
Alcorn Statehad the best offensive efficiency in the entire country with a 64.4% success rate in a win over Mississippi Valley State. Central Connecticut Statetook full control of the NEC race with a dominant win over Robert Morris. The Blue Devils suffocated the Colonials, holding them to -9 rushing yards.
South Carolina Statefinally found the defensive dominance that we saw earlier this season, holding Morgan State to -12 rushing yards and 3.1 yards per play. Colgaterebounded with over 500 yards of total offense, averaging 6.6 yards per play in a 37-0 shutout victory over William & Mary. The Tribe finished with only 142 yards of total offense.
Abilene Christianremains undefeated in UAC play and is starting to look like that scary team we've seen over the past two seasons. The Wildcats forced five turnovers, rolled up 500 yards of total offense, and had a 60% rushing success rate against West Georgia.
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Lamarcontinued to roll; despite the final score, the Cardinals were up 42-9 at the end of the third quarter. It was the first loss at home for UTRGV, which was held to a 21% success rate. In a game with major postseason implications, Weber Statedominated UC Davis. The Wildcats had 500 yards of total offense, averaging 7 yards per play. The defense held the Aggies to a 30% success rate.
Interestingly, Tarleton Statemakes this section despite only winning 28-24 against Eastern Kentucky. The Texans had an elite offensive success rate of 50%, finishing with nearly 600 yards of total offense, only punting twice, and somehow only scoring 28 points. The Texans turned the ball over three times, all deep inside EKU territory, including once at the goal line. Defensively, Tarleton State only allowed a 32% success rate, but allowed too many explosive plays. The Texans will need to be much sharper moving forward.
Which Week 9 Games Conflicted With Success Rate?
Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.
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Youngstown State 31, North Dakota 28 (YSU 44.8%, UND 50%)
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Alabama A&M 31, Alabama State 28 (AAMU 46.6%, ASU 50%)
It was a tale of two halves in Youngstown State'scomeback win over North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks started this game on fire offensively. On its first five full drives of the game, North Dakota scored four TDs and had a field goal blocked. The Fighting Hawks had 51 plays on these five drives for 341 yards, averaging 6.7 yards per play.
The Fighting Hawks punted on their next three drives, which were all answered by Youngstown State scores. Those three drives had a combined 14 plays for 41 yards, which is only 2.9 yards per play. The craziest part is that North Dakota still rushed for 4.6 yards per carry on those drives, but just abandoned the running game, and the passing game couldn't get anything going.
The Magic City Classic lived up to its name, offering one of the most exciting games of the weekend. This game was incredibly even in pretty much every metric you can analyze. The Alabama Stateoffense was slightly more consistent, while Alabama A&Mwas more explosive and effective in key moments. Alabama State missed a crucial field goal attempt, while Alabama A&M made its attempt; plus, the Hornets had two costly turnovers.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/fcs as Behind The Numbers: Week 9 FCS Football Review .
