Beyond The Box Score: Ceiling

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Beyond The Box Score: Ceiling

Nate Edwards · SB Nation

Tue, Oct 6, 2026 ·

7 min read

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Heading into this season, I – plus a good chunk of the Rock M football staff – and any of our illustrious guests on the podcast had two words to describe the 2026 Missouri Tigers:

Ceiling. Floor.

We figured each of those levels had the potential to be grand but, given the amount of "newness" to this team, no one was sure what the heck we were going to get.

I'm sure we'd all prefer to believe that the floor was the Troy game, a matchup where the consensus was "Mizzou win by a billion" but, instead, they won by a mere two scores. Almost everyone on the team stunk and yet they won by 10. That's a good floor.

Mississippi State wasn't a floor game by any means, but it certainly was a lower point than what we'd prefer. And so Mizzou fans – as always – were intimately familiar with the "Floor" of this season, thanks to crummy performances of some sort in back to back weeks.

And, as always, we were hoping to see the ceiling at some point this year.

Well… I think we saw it on Saturday.

Here's the advanced box score:

If we're sticking with the Grading Schtick for Mizzou's quarterback, I think he's earned "A-plus-tin" for the next six days. 342 yards, 64.5% success rate, 11 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions.

Jamal Roberts was inefficient as hell but, to make up for it, he turned in one of the more explosive ground performances we've seen this decade.

Oh, and a defense that could not stop Fluff Bothwell to save their lives put the nation's best running back in a hammer lock and allowed him to traipse for 11 yards on 12 attempts.

This was easily the most thorough beating of an SEC foe in a long time, and OH BY THE WAY they were ranked #8 in the country at the time.

I don't know what Florida (or Missouri) will end up being once we get through December, but for one day at least, the all-mighty conference-contending Florida hegemon was knocked to the mat multiple times and not allowed to finish the fight.

Tip of the cap, Drink. I didn't know you had this in you!

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Florida’s Defense

Where does Cayden Lee rank in the pantheon of Missouri wide receivers? Obviously Justin Gage, Jeremy Maclin, and Danario Alexander are some version of 1 through 3 in most fans' minds, and of course Luther Burden is easily floating in the Top 5 range, depending on who you ask.

But over five games Lee has been one of the most reliable receivers I can remember. If I can see Austin Simmons picking Lee's route I almost don't even worry about whether he will catch it or not…because he always does. 8 catches on 9 targets for 111 yards, and each catch was a successful play. I can't remember another receiver who has been able to produce those sorts of results on a week to week basis. It's incredibly fortunate that he showed up this year with a less than stellar run game: Simmons to Lee has become the automatic success play and 1st-down generator that Missouri running backs have been providing the previous six years.

Throw to Win

Goal: 44% passing success rate

Actual: 64.5% passing success rate

Winner: Missouri

Minimize Havoc

Goal: 15% or less havoc allowed

Actual: 18.4% havoc allowed

Winner: Florida

Finish Your Dang Drives

Goal: 5 points per scoring opportunity

Actual: 5 points per scoring opportunity

Winner: Missouri

When Florida Has The Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Florida’s Offense

How does a defense allow a 50% success rate on the ground in one week, and then only give up a 27.3% success rate on the ground the next? Fluff Bothwell ran for 125 yards on a 48% success rate on his own, but Jadan Baugh managed 0.9 yards per carry and a 16% success rate against the same Missouri defense!

Oh, wait, no, sorry, not the same defense, but one that's missing its top two defensive ends.

The only explanation I have is "that's college football, baby". The same coaches and same players can look incapable of stopping anything one week and then world beaters the next.

…ok, I'm being a little dramatic by saying I don't know how they did it. Part of the plan was making Aaron Philo – not a great passer – beat them through the air by bottling up the run. And they did that by putting Sterling Webb, defensive tackle, out as an edge setting defender, meaning there were three talented run stuffers on the field at once. I know what they did, it's just so often you see these major adjustments not work. And I'm pleasantly surprised that it did work.

I know it's not feasible to ask this, but I would prefer that the defensive success level from Saturday is replicated every week for the rest of the year.

Make 'em Run

Goal: 48% or less passing success rate

Actual: 40.5% passing success rate

Winner: Missouri

Turn Them Over

Goal: +2 turnover margin

Actual: Neutral turnover margin

Winner: Florida

The Little Things

Missouri held a 3.8 advantage in Yards Per Play and generated six more scoring opportunities which was enough to have this game pull away into garbage time. No turnovers, similar average starting field position, similar average punt yardage…but, of course, Florida had to punt five more times than Mizzou. Man, what a beat down.

On the demerit front, BEHOLD. A GAME WITH ONLY FIVE PENALTIES AND ONLY 55 YARDS LOST. And no drops! Missouri really played an S-tier game on all fronts.

Extra Points

This game went into garbage time with 12:24 left in the 3rd quarter. Yes, you read that correctly. Against a Top 10 team. And look at those success rate splits! The 4th Quarter was truly a formality once we got there.

Missouri had their lowest yardage total on 3rd down yet finished 7-13 because the average yards to go on 3rd-down was 5.4 while Florida was averaging 3rd-and-10.o. If I may pick a nit, though, Missouri went hard back into the "run on 1st down" play calling, skewed heavy pass on all other downs. It worked, so I guess I can't complain too much, but it's just interesting to note.

After a pretty even 1st-quarter in yardage terms (and point total terms), Missouri started blasting holes in the Florida defense in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Florida went into a dark place in the 3rd quarter and didn't come out until Tramell Jones, Jr. took advantage of Missouri's backup defenders.

Jamal Roberts added another 3 1st-downs to his season long total, but say hello to your new club house leader in 1st-downs generated, Austin Simmons throwing to Cayden Lee! The pair racked up SEVEN 1st-downs against Florida, putting them three ahead of Roberts. We also got to add three new contributors to this list, including Simmons to Goodie, Simmons to Lanier, and Simmons running it on his own.

Conclusion

We have seen the ceiling and it is f***ing glorious. I don't know how many more times we'll see that sort of product but now we know that this Missouri team is nigh unbeatable when almost everything is clicking.

I go back to my two truths from last week's preview:

It's difficult to win on the road.
You're never the same team from week to week

There's no guarantee that Missouri (or any college team) can play at it's peak week in and week out, and there are plenty of road games ahead for the Tigers. But knowing that this team has the ability to do that to a Top 10 team is incredibly reassuring, and if Eli needs a little extra motivation to kick in that gear, then the biggest bully of his Missouri tenure is coming into town this week…

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