Beyond the Box Score: This is Halloween.

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Beyond the Box Score: This is Halloween.

Nate Edwards · SB Nation

Tue, November 3, 2026 at 5:30 PM UTC ·

9 min read

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There's been a lot of angst online about Missouri's most recent beatdown of OUR MOST HATED RIVAL SPONSERED BY AN INSURANCE COMPANY. Is it valid?

Quick, let's check the advanced box score:

Missouri outgained Arkansas in every possible way: raw yardage (392-280), Yards Per Play (6.0-4.0), and even Yards Per Possession (39.2-25.5).

The Tigers created more scoring opportunities (6-4, 7 if you count the fumble recovered in the end zone) and scored more points per each opportunity (5.7-2.5).

They tripled Arkansas' ground output, and even when you remove the -34 yards from the bad snap fumble, still doubled up the rushing yards. Mizzou also completed the same number of passes on fewer attempts and was never sacked.

Better starting field position. Better turnover margin. Better 3rd-down conversion rate. Perfect on field goals.

And yet people still came away from this game acting like a a certain kindergartner who I would not allow to eat a full size Hershey bar at 9:00p on Halloween night. Not to be specific or anything.

Missouri dominated this game. D-O-M-I-N-A-T-E-D. To the tune of a 96% postgame win expectancy (which looks at everything that happened in the game and determines how often a team with those stats and occurrences wins a game).

So what's with the sour grapes?

It could just be "people online are negative and you're programmed to remember negative stuff". It could be that Arkansas was actually a more efficient team than Missouri on the day (but not by much – 41% overall success rate for Arkansas, 40% for Missouri). It could be we saw some fleeting glimpses of Austin Simmons ripping beautiful throws downfield but only had 4 explosive plays on the day. It could be Arkansas sucks really bad and the perception of how Missouri should beat an inferior team in your head didn't match what you saw on the field.

It could be all of that or none of that. But the point is Missouri went on the road in conference in the rain and was never really challenged while winning by 24 points. You can pick nits but that is a nice, comfortable shellacking of a conference foe, regardless of quality. Missouri didn't have to win, or win by 24, and yet they did.

And for all the commentary of "well if they play like that against Texas they're cooked". Uh, yeah. That's Texas this week. This was Arkansas last week. If you've been watching college football for longer than three years – let alone this season – and believe college football teams are consistent from week to week, then I have some beachfront property in St. Louis to sell you.

It's 2026. The #2 team has lost, like, every single week. Ohio State and Oregon are BOTH on track to miss the Playoff. Wake Forest is beating everyone's ass by 50. Georgia has no depth. Texas can't run the ball. New Mexico is ranked.

Every team sucks. Parity is high. Missouri can win out or lose out and I really wouldn't be surprised by either of those scenarios.

Embrace the chaos, friends. Enjoy the wins when they occur.

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Arkansas’ Defense

Something that I didn't mention above that I will mention here: Missouri's offense wasn't on the field very much. And that low exposure to the guys that throw the ball and score points might have made it feel like the Tigers weren't doing anything of substance.

Taking out the last drive – which, thankfully we're not, Preston Hatfield looked awesome, kudos to him – Missouri had the ball with the intent to score 9 times. NINE. That's the lowest possession count of the year by three possessions. The only game that featured fewer plays than this game was the 47 plays Missouri ran against Troy.

Part of the Eli Drinkwitz experience is that he plays "open" until he gets a two-score late around the middle of the 3rd-quarter, and if he does get that, he tends to pack everything in and run the ball to kill the clock and get the heck out of there. While it's not aesthetically pleasing I do understand it: even without the 9-game conference schedule, going through the SEC is a slog, and thanks to the portal and NIL no team can stack depth like the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the mid-aughts and early teens did. And if you want to win a national championship? Brother, that's 17 games you have to play. Best to play as a little football as possible and preserve your player's health.

But it also leads to games where Austin Simmons throws one pass in the 4th quarter, and 7 passes in the entire second half. Does it rob of us of experiencing potential-NFL darling QB Austin Simmons whip ass at Mizzou? Yes. Does it give Missouri a better chance at staying healthy and making an extended run in the postseason? Also yes.

Generate Explosives

Goal: 10 explosive plays created

Actual: 4 explosives plays created – one pass, three runs for a combined 139 yards

Winner: Arkansas

Convert Third Downs

Goal: 60% success rate on 3rd-down

Actual: 46.2% success rate on 3rd-down

Winner: Arkansas

Finish Your Dang Drives

Goal: 5 points per scoring opportunity

Actual: 5.7 points per scoring opportunity

Winner: Missouri

When Arkansas Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Arkansas’ Offense

I hadn't watched much of Arkansas this year but came away impressed with K.J. Jackson. It was clear their OC Tim Cramsey knew that Mizzou could be taken advantage of through the air and wasn't to be messed with on the ground. So he crafted a plan that featured a QB-run oriented ground game – actual runs, very few scrambles – while being balanced in play calling on all three downs and only utilizing his running backs when Missouri presented a front that was ideal. To highlight this: Arkansas' rushing success rate was 45.7%, which is third to only Mississippi State (50%) and Ole Miss (55%) in terms of rushing success rates Mizzou has given up this year. They did surprisingly well for allegedly being terrible at running the ball!

But wait, check that opportunity rate of 34%. Their 35 rushes had a nearly 46% success rate but they only actually gained at least 4-yards on a third of those carries. That's not great! And the highlight yards of 2.3 mean that, even if they did get 4 yards, they only averaged two yards after that.

It was good, situational offense, that was completely undone by four turnovers. Oh well. Better luck next time, Pigs.

HAVOC!

Goal: 20% or higher havoc rate

Actual: 22.4% havoc rate

Winner: Missouri

Limit The Damage

Goal: 3 points per scoring opportunity or less

Actual: 2.5 points per scoring opportunity

Winner: Missouri

The Little Things

As expected, Missouri did very well in The Little Things department, outclassing Arkansas in nearly every category possible.

The penalties though. Oh, the penalties. In this game the offense committed 8 penalties and the defense 1. That's telling.

For the year, the penalty allocation for Missouri breaks down thusly:

Offense: 39
Defense: 20
Special Teams: 7

I haven't run those numbers for any other team in any other year so I don't know exactly what that means. But it feels bad? Yeah. It feels bad.

But, hey, because they were feeling left out, Arkansas also committed 7 penalties for more yards than Missouri was penalized, and adding three drops on top of it. Classic Hogs.

Extra Points

Here's where I remind you that Arkansas actually moved the ball well, certainly much better than I anticipated. Yes, it was a slow 1st quarter but they did consistently well after that. It didn't lead to points or have them win the game, mind you, but still. Just something I noticed.

You can also see the paly discrepancy of the 3rd-quarter here. Arkansas working as hard as they could to move the ball and stay with the chains and score. But never did score in the second half. Shame.

This is a fun one, mostly for the -34 rushing yards that don't get attributed to any individual but count towards the team's overall rushing stats, meaning Arkansas gained -25 yards on 4th-down. That's fun and unique. Missouri was fairly consistent on their downs, cresting 100 yards of production in each down. I appreciate that they were much more balanced in their approach in this game instead of leaning obviously on runs on 1st-down and obviously on passes on 3rd-down. Clearly the offensive staff reads Beyond the Box Score and took note of my suggestions. Thanks for reading, coaches!

The -34 yard fumble rears it's funny little head here again, forcing the 1st-quarter total yardage to wind up at 7. It is interesting that Missouri ran 38 plays in the 1st half for 155 yards – or 4.1 yards per play – and then manages to only run 27 plays in the second half but rips off 237 yards in that smaller offering, or 8.8 yards per play.

Oh. Oh ho ho ho. Looky there!

Computer, enhance.

Mmm. Enhance again.

COMPUTER. ENHANCE.

Awwwwwwwwwwwwww yeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Conclusion

It's November and Missouri is still in contention for the Playoff. A lot of other things need to occur around the sport over the next four weeks to do so – including Missouri winning at least three games and taking a Texas or Georgia pelt – but, technically, they're still in it.

There are a lot of teams that can't say that right now. Including Oregon. Appreciate good things when they happen to you!

Obviously there's a lot of football to be played by the old adage is the old adage for a reason: you gotta take care of the opponent in front of you before you worry about any other opponent.

Texas is hobbled but hyper talented. It'll be another ranked-on-ranked matchup for Drinkwitz and the boys this week and an "ugly win" at Arkansas might have been the spark for an inspired run. You never know!

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