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Big Ten College Football Preview 2026: Will Oregon break through to a national title?
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- Big Ten College Football Preview 2026: Will Oregon break through to a national title?
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti doesn't waste words. He rarely seeks out a microphone and doesn't say more than he needs to when in front of one.
At Big Ten football media days this summer, he barely needed to speak. The three most recent national championship trophies stood to his right, and they did all the talking. Three consecutive national titles for the Big Ten — first, from Michigan , then Ohio State , and then, finally and most unexpectedly, from Indiana .
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It's a fascinating time. Petitti and the Big Ten are riding high atop the sport, with the mighty SEC trying to regain its footing . The Big Ten is 8-2 vs. the SEC in the postseason the past two years. The SEC has been notably absent from the national championship game each of the past three seasons.
"The numbers speak for themselves — we don't run a hype machine up here in the Midwest, we believe everything's earned, not given," Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said at media days. "When we fall short, we say we fell short. We don't cry a river, whine and complain. And that's why we're the best."
And the Big Ten plans to be the home of the best team in college football once again.
Can the Big Ten four-peat?
It's certainly possible. The league does not lack for national title contenders, as evidenced by Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana all ranked in the top six of the preseason AP poll. That's the same trio that finished atop the Big Ten standings a year ago (and combined to go 26-1 in league play).
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With Ohio State No. 1 and Oregon No. 2, the Big Ten became the first conference to hold the top two spots in the preseason poll since 1987. That speaks to the high expectations the rest of the country has for the Big Ten's best — and well as the idea that Oregon is well-positioned to become the fourth different national champion from the league in four seasons. The Ducks have never won a football national title.
Some of the league's biggest brands are lurking, too. USC believes the roster is where it needs to be and the time is now for the Trojans to contend both for a Big Ten title and CFP spot. Michigan and Penn State both breaking in new head coaches, but the Nittany Lions, in particular, have a favorable schedule that could help get them back into the CFP. The Wolverines will try to unlock quarterback Bryce Underwood and conquer a challenging schedule.
Petitti will tell you that the Big Ten doesn't get enough credit for its depth. It's true that teams like Washington and Iowa — who should both impact the Big Ten race this fall — don't get the type of national attention or respect that teams in the middle or upper-middle of the SEC tend to get. But, at the very least, the top of the conference is getting treated as it should — with its top teams considered the top national title contenders in the country.
Will Lincoln Riley and USC finally break through?
The Trojans believe they're ready to do just that. Head coach Lincoln Riley is not shying away from the idea, and he's not tamping down expectations. He believes the time is now because the roster is in good shape, the staff is where he wants it to be, and his bosses understand what USC needs from a resource standpoint to compete at the highest level.
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"We are more aligned than we've been in my entire time at USC," Riley told NBC Sports. "There's finally, I think, a sense of steadiness there — and that's important. As you're trying to build and compete in a sport where the margins are razor thin, you need all of those key stakeholders in those key areas operating at a high level aligned with one another. And we have that right now.
"From the way we've recruited to the roster we've been able to put together, the staff we've been able to assemble — and this brand-new facility that I think is undoubtedly one of the top, if not the top one, in college football — all those things together are how you start to build a championship team. I take my experience and some of the things I've observed from the places I've been and some of the success we've had over the years, and I'm starting to see a lot more that looks like that."
USC brought in the nation's top-ranked recruiting class, according to 247Sports, and Riley said there will be true freshmen impacting games this fall. There's a ton of young talent on a team that returns quite a bit on the offensive side of the ball, led by veteran quarterback Jayden Maiava (who should be one of the Big Ten's best signal-callers). Former TCU head coach Gary Patterson has taken over the USC defense, and if that group shows significant improvement, this should be a CFP-caliber team.
The Trojans drew a brutal schedule, even without Notre Dame on the calendar; they have to play Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Those are the teams that the Trojans want — and need — to be able to beat to get back where they used to be in this sport. And Riley thinks that this can be the team to do just that.
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What does Indiana do next?
You could argue that the Hoosiers checking in at No. 6 in the preseason poll is a sign of disrespect. I, personally, voted for them No. 1 because: 1) they're the reigning national champions; and 2) Curt Cignetti hasn't given me any reason to doubt that they won't be extremely good at football again. Cignetti has taken the losingest program in college football history and gone 27-2 over two seasons. The only losses he's had at Indiana came to the two teams that played for the national title at the end of the 2024-25 season.
Now, Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza is gone. As is D'Angelo Ponds and nearly all the James Madison transfers that came with Cignetti to Bloomington. But Cignetti, known for his keen ability to evaluate talent, responded with an impressive portal haul that includes TCU quarterback Josh Hoover , star Michigan State receiver Nick Marsh , two Kansas State edge defenders and a number of others from Power 4 programs. It's hard to bet against Cignetti and the transfers he signs off on — along with the same two coordinators who have coached under him for the past decade.
The defense is longer and more athletic than it's been, based on observations from my NBC Sports colleagues and myself at practices. The rushing attack is going to be quite good, running behind what should again be one of the better offensive lines in college football. Hoover doesn't have Mendoza's size and durability, but he should thrive in Indiana's offensive system and significantly cut down on turnovers.
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There's no reason to think that Indiana is going to take some drastic step back. Not with this coaching staff. Not with these schemes. Not with the way they put their players in position to succeed.
New faces in new places
The Big Ten had big turnover in its head coaching ranks this offseason. Penn State fired James Franklin mid-season and eventually hired Matt Campbell away from Iowa State. Michigan fired Sheronne Moore for off-field issues and hired Kyle Whittingham, who had stepped down as the head coach at Utah. Michigan State fired Jonathan Smith to hire Pat Fitzgerald, who had been synonymous with Northwestern football both as a player and coach until his firing amid a hazing scandal in July 2023. And UCLA made a splash with JMU head coach Bob Chesney coming to Westwood.
The Big Ten's new hires run the gamut from a rising star (Chesney) to three coaches who were the winningest coaches in each of their previous program's history. There are a lot of familiar names here — but also new logos, new environments and new challenges.
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Of the four, Campbell is most likely to see the immediate success. Penn State's schedule is extremely favorable, with the Nittany Lions avoiding Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana while drawing four of the five teams at the bottom of the Big Ten standings a year ago.
The expected CFP contenders
Ohio State
Per usual, expectations are sky high for the Buckeyes. They still have the best offensive player in the country ( Jeremiah Smith ) and they return a quarterback ( Julian Sayin ) who finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting last year. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who received rave reviews in his first season in Columbus, is back with a group that is much less experienced but should be deeper than it was a year ago. There are questions that need answering — like, all those new starters on the defensive side of the ball and whether the offensive line can better handle the best defensive fronts in the nation — but there is still so much to like about this perennial contender.
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Oregon
If there is to be a fourth different Big Ten team to win a fourth straight national championship, it is almost assuredly going to be the Ducks. They've got an embarrassment of riches on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, and the only real unknowns going into the season are the coordinator changes. Everything else looks good, like it usually does against most everybody the Ducks play. Over the past three years, Oregon is 1-5 vs. teams that played in the national championship game. The Ducks are 37-0 against everybody else. Dan Lanning has built himself a juggernaut that should be in the CFP year after year, and at some point, the team will have to break through for its first national title, right?
Indiana
I can't imagine that anybody was happier than Curt Cignetti was when Indiana saw its No. 6 ranking. Not because Cignetti actually thinks he's got the sixth-best team in the country, of course. But because it'll give a team that just won a national championship yet another chip on its shoulder, because it signals to the Hoosiers that there are still enough doubters who aren't sure Cignetti can keep this thing rolling at the absolute highest level. He's a master of motivation, an incredible teacher and talent developer. So, even with a more challenging Big Ten schedule this year, there's no reason that we shouldn't pencil the Hoosiers into the CFP.
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USC
The Trojans haven't made the CFP under Lincoln Riley, and they hope to change that this fall. Jayden Maiava should be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, the most important returner among many back this fall to pair with the nation's best recruiting class. The USC defense should be the best and deepest it's been, too, now under the tutelage of Gary Patterson. The schedule is tough (even without Notre Dame on it), but Riley believes that USC's championship window is open for a reason. Now, the Trojans just have to win the right games to put themselves in position to play for one.
Could be in the mix: Penn State, Michigan, Washington, Iowa
The hottest seat
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin .Fickell's seat is about as toasty as it can get. Despite being viewed as a homerun hire and a perfect fit, things have not gone well to date for him in Madison. Over three full seasons, Fickell is 17-21 (and 10-17 in Big Ten play). Fickell was supposed to elevate Wisconsin from Big Ten West-good to national title contender, and it has not come close to working out that way. But! Fickell has a chance to coach himself off the hot seat, even with a new athletic director who didn't hire him now serving as his boss. Wisconsin should have a solid defense and an improved offense, led by Old Dominion transfer quarterback Colton Joseph (who is a true dual-threat and game-changing player) and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes (in his second season). Now, Joseph and other central figures will need to stay healthy, but the schedule appears far more favorable this year than last year (minus the season opener vs. Notre Dame) with lots of opportunities against first-year Big Ten coaches early on to build momentum.
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Award predictions
Coach of the Year: Lincoln Riley, USC.I believe in these Trojans. I think this is the year they finally get over the hump and get into the CFP. If they do that — whether it's thanks to an undeniable 10-2 record with a win over one of Ohio State/Oregon/Indiana or it's a 9-3 team that ekes in off the bubble — we'll be giving a great deal of credit to Riley for it. Not just because he calls plays and has a history of success with his multi-year starting quarterbacks, either. Riley prioritized high school recruiting and landed the nation's top class, which will include freshman playmakers. He went out and hired Gary Patterson to run the Trojans' defense, and it's admittedly not the easiest thing in the world to hire a former head coach (and rival coach at that!) to be a coordinator heading into the most important year of your tenure. If all of those offseason decisions and developments work, we'll be lauding Riley for pushing all the right buttons.
Offensive Player of the Year: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State.There are a few quarterbacks who will have a say in this award before all is said and done, but it's impossible for me not to pick the best offensive player in college football for this award right now. Based on team needs, Smith may not end up being the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but he should be that. He's electrifying to the point that I've run out of adjectives to use to describe him. If he can stay healthy and if Ohio State has enough other offensive weapons to ensure that Smith doesn't draw double or even triple coverage on a regular basis, he should put up the kind of numbers needed to win this (and other) postseason awards. We just need to make sure we don't take him for granted.
Defensive Player of the Year: Koi Perich , Oregon.There are some unbelievably talented defensive players on Oregon's roster, so this isn't a slight towards any of them. But Perich may end up being the most important player on that side of the ball for the Ducks, following in the footsteps of Dillon Thieneman as an immediate-impact transfer safety from a fellow Big Ten school. Perich had some eye-popping moments at Minnesota on defense, offense and special teams, though he was less productive last year than he was as a freshman. Now, I think it's fair to consider him as a full-time defender who might return some kicks, instead of a Travis Hunter type of two-way player. But no matter what, he's got a chance to be an integral piece of what could be the nation's best defense.
Must-see Big Ten matchups
Sept. 26: Oregon at USC
Oct. 10: USC at Penn State
Oct. 17: Ohio State at Indiana
Oct. 31: Ohio State at USC
Nov. 7: Oregon at Ohio State
Nov. 28: Michigan at Ohio State
