Bills vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, pick for AFC Wild Card playoffs

Story by

Story by
Bills vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, pick for AFC Wild Card playoffs

Dominik Zawartko, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Jan 7, 2026 ·

5 min read

About Our Ads

Bills vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, pick for AFC Wild Card playoffs appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The NFL Playoffs are finally here as we're set to bring you our betting predictions and picks for the Wild Card round, this upcoming tilt in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills (12-5)will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)for the third AFC Wild Card meeting between the two franchises. Check our NFL Wild Card odds series for the Bills-Jaguars prediction and pick.

The Buffalo Bills finish as the No. 6 seed in the AFC following their 35-8 win over the New York Jets in Week 18. This will be the Bills' seventh-straight NFL postseason appearance as Josh Allen will be looking to lead his team to their first Super Bowl berth with him as their quarterback.

The Jacksonville Jaguars clinched the AFC's No. 3 seed after beating the Tennessee Titans 41-7 for their first AFC South title in three years. They've won eight consecutive games heading into the NFL Playoffs and MVP candidate Trevor Lawrence is playing some of his best football of the season with the Jaguars as underdogs.

NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings

Bills vs. Jaguars AFC Wild Card Odds

Buffalo Bills: -1.5 (-102)

Jacksonville Jaguars: +1.5 (-118)

Over: 52.5 (-105)

Under: 52.5 (-115)

Bills vs. Jaguars Key Injuries

*practice status as of 1/7/2026, latest repor t*

Buffalo:S Damar Hamlin (pectoral – Limited) / DT DaQuan Jones (calf – Limited) / TE Dalton Kincaid (knee – Limited) / S Jordan Poyer (hamstring – Limited) / LB Shaq Thompson (neck – Limited) / LB Terrel Bernard (calf – DNP) / CB Maxwell Hairston (ankle – DNP) / RB Ty Johnson (ankle – DNP) / LB Matt Milano (illness – DNP) / WR Josh Palmer (ankle – DNP) / K Matt Prater (quad – DNP)

Jacksonville:OT Patrick Mekari (back – Limited) / DE Danny Striggow (elbow/ankle – Limited) / CB Montaric Brown (neck – Limited) / CB Greg Newsome II (shoulder – Limited) / G Cole Van Lanen (knee – DNP) / CB Jarrian Jones (illness – DNP)

Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 7-2 at home this season. The Buffalo Bills are 5-3 on the road.
The Jaguars are 12-5 ATS this season. The Bills are 8-9 ATS overall.
The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS at home, the Bills 4-4 ATS on the road.
The Jaguars are 2-1 outright, 2-1 ATS in their last three games against the Bills.
The Jaguars are 9-1 outright, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. They're 4-0 outright, 4-0 ATS the last four at home.
The Bills are 7-3 outright, 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo's last five games.
The total has gone OVER in four of Jacksonville's last five games.

Keys to Bills vs. Jaguars Matchup

The Bills and the Jaguars will meet in the Wild Card round for the third time in NFL history, Jacksonville owning both meetings 2-0. Times have changed since, however, and reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen will be looking to lead his team to another conference championship game. Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence will have other plans as he's been able to mount his own MVP run this season, all under the direction of first-year head coach Liam Cohen who's completely changed the identity of this team.

Not only will the Bills have Josh Allen, but RB James Cook may need to have the biggest games of his career following the best regular season of his career. Allen has been hobbled throughout the final few games with a foot injury, so the Bills may be more inclined to lean on the rushing attack in a close game. Still, expect Josh Allen to be fearless in throwing the ball and he should have an impact with his own rushing throughout the game as well.

It's still impressive to see the improvement from Trevor Lawrence given a mistake-riddled 2024 season. This year, he's been able to limit his interceptions to just 12, the second-lowest total of his career. He posted a career-high nine rushing touchdowns along with RB Travis Etienne who found the end zone 13 total times, six of those coming as receiving touchdowns. Their defense has also stepped things up through the last games of the season, so they'll be offering stern resistance at home against Buffalo's offense.

Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction and Pick

Bills' Josh Allen comes out of Wednesday's practice as a full participant on the injury report, a promising sign for his health heading into this pivotal game. This should be decided on the line of scrimmage and if the Bills' are able to get a solid push for James Cook while keeping Josh Allen clean, they should be able to win this game and advance.

However, the Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the league and Trevor Lawrence has been able to play mistake-free football. Both quarterbacks will be threats to run the ball, but it's been Lawrence who's looked more confident doing so leading up to this game.

For our final pick, we're going to roll with the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the game. While Buffalo may be the better team on paper, all the momentum is on Jacksonville's side, especially in a shootout.

Final Bills-Jaguars Prediction & Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-118); OVER 52.5 (-105)

Mobilize your Website

View Site in Mobile | Classic

Share by: