We built the Dan Campbell Trust Index using five years of Lions rookie data. Here's what it says about the 2026 class
Story by
We built the Dan Campbell Trust Index using five years of Lions rookie data. Here's what it says about the 2026 class
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, first-round pick receiver Jameson Williams and first-round pick defensive end Aidan Hutchinson pose for a picture with GM Brad Holmes during the press conference Friday, April 29, 2022 at the practice facility in Allen Park. Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Mike Payton·AtoZ Sports
·
5 min read
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Detroit Lions fans always try to predict which rookies Dan Campbell will trust. Instead of guessing, I studied five years of rookie usage and built a Dan Campbell Trust Index that offers clues about Detroit's 2026 draft class.
The Detroit Lions' 2026 rookie class is about to hit training camp, and the annual cycle of projecting which first-year players will contribute right away is already in full swing. Every year, Lions fans talk themselves into the idea that most of the draft picks will play immediately. Sometimes that's justified. Sometimes it's camp brain taking over. So instead of guessing which rookies Dan Campbell will trust, there's a better approach: look at the ones he already has.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
That's the idea behind what I'm calling the Dan Campbell Trust Index. Using every Lions draft pick from 2021 through 2025, the goal is to measure how much trust Campbell and the coaching staff showed each rookie during their first NFL season and use that as a guide heading into 2026.
How the Trust Index works
Category
What it means
Initial Trust (0-50)
Measures how much trust the Lions coaching staff showed a rookie before he proved himself in regular-season games. It factors in things like Week 1 role, snap count, training camp usage and early responsibilities.
Earned Trust (0-50)
Measures how much trust the rookie earned during the season. Bigger roles, more snaps, starting jobs and added responsibilities all increase this score.
Total Trust Score (0-100)
The combined score showing how much trust Dan Campbell and his coaching staff placed in a rookie throughout his first NFL season.
Initial Trust Metric
Points
Week 1 Active
5
Week 1 Starter
10
Played at least 25% of offensive or defensive snaps by Week 4
10
Played special teams in Week 1
4
Became a starter by midseason
6
Finished rookie season as a starter
8
Maximum Initial Trust Score
50
Earned Trust Metric
Points
Role grew after the first month of the season
10
Became a regular offensive or defensive contributor
10
Started multiple games as a rookie
8
Played in high-leverage situations like third downs, red zone, two-minute or late-game snaps
8
Coaches expanded his role or trusted him at multiple spots
7
Finished the season with a clear role going into Year 2
7
Maximum Earned Trust Score
50
Score
Trust Tier
90–100
Immediate Foundation Piece
75–89
Trusted Contributor
60–74
Earned His Way
40–59
Development Track
Below 40
Redshirt / Long-Term Project
How this works:This isn't a talent ranking. It's a coaching trust ranking. The goal is to measure how quickly Dan Campbell and his staff trusted each rookie with meaningful playing time and responsibility during his first NFL season.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
The score is split into two parts. The first is initial trust, which captures everything before the regular season. Did the rookie make the Week 1 roster? Was he active right away? Did he start? How many snaps did he play early on? Was he working with starters in training camp? These indicators tell you how much confidence the staff had from day one.
The second part is earned trust. Did the player's role grow once the season started? Did he become a starter later on? Did the coaches lean on him in big moments? That measures whether a player proved he deserved a bigger role.
Combine those two scores and you get a number out of 100. A score between 90 and 100 means the coaching staff viewed that rookie as an immediate foundation piece. Between 75 and 89 is a trusted contributor. Between 60 and 74 means he had to earn his way into a significant role. Between 40 and 59, that's your developmental player still working to gain Campbell's confidence. Anything below 40, consider those guys redshirt rookies who just didn't have the opportunity.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
You have to understand, this is not a talent ranking. Some great players started with low trust scores and climbed. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the one who pops right off the sheet.
2021
Player
Rd
Pos
Initial Trust
Earned Trust
Total
Tier
Why
Penei Sewell
1
OT
47
50
97
Immediate Foundation
Immediate starter; played essentially every offensive snap as a rookie starter.
Levi Onwuzurike
2
DT
18
18
36
Redshirt/Low Trust
Played rotation snaps, but never became a major rookie-year trust case.
Alim McNeill
3
DT
28
32
60
Earned His Way
Trusted in a defined DT role early; larger role came later.
Ifeatu Melifonwu
3
CB
14
8
22
Redshirt/Low Trust
Injury/availability limited rookie trust read.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
4
WR
18
47
65
Earned His Way
Did not arrive as a full-time piece, then forced his way into major usage late.
Derrick Barnes
4
LB
28
32
60
Earned His Way
Played early and had ST/defensive utility, but trust came in stages.
Jermar Jefferson
7
RB
6
6
12
Redshirt/Low Trust
Depth back with little sustained role.
In 2021, Penei Sewell scored a 97 total trust score. The Lions were celebrating in the war room when he fell to them. He earned even more trust as the season went on, moving from left tackle to right tackle and getting better every week. Immediate foundational player.
St. Brown, on the other hand, had an initial trust score of 18. He was basically nowhere to be found for the better part of the year. Then the Lions won that game against the Minnesota Vikings, and that was his breakout. From there, his snap count skyrocketed, pushing his earned trust to 47. He didn't arrive as a full-time piece. He forced his way into it.
Injury delayed his season; rotational trust only after return.
Kerby Joseph
3
S
16
42
58
Development Track
Not a Week 1 answer, but became a starter and real defensive piece.
James Mitchell
5
TE
10
15
25
Redshirt/Low Trust
Depth TE role; played some but not a major trust case.
Malcolm Rodriguez
6
LB
43
40
83
Trusted Contributor
Day 3 outlier; started immediately and played meaningful defensive snaps.
James Houston
6
EDGE
2
34
36
Redshirt/Low Trust
No early trust, but late-season pass-rush package exploded.
Chase Lucas
7
CB
10
8
18
Redshirt/Low Trust
Mostly ST/depth usage.
The 2022 class gave us Aidan Hutchinson at a perfect 100, the highest score of any Lions rookie in the Campbell era. Malcolm Rodriguez is the more instructive case, though. Go back to Hard Knocks that year, and he was the story of the entire series. A sixth-round pick who was the clubhouse leader coming out of training camp to be a starter. Rodriguez is the exact point of reference for any Day 3 pick. Just because you're a late-round selection does not mean you can't win a job.
2023
Player
Rd
Pos
Initial Trust
Earned Trust
Total
Tier
Why
Jahmyr Gibbs
1
RB
45
42
87
Trusted Contributor
Immediate designed role, even if not classic workhorse usage.
Jack Campbell
1
LB
40
33
73
Earned His Way
Played early, but full defensive control came gradually.
Sam LaPorta
2
TE
50
50
100
Immediate Foundation
Immediate starter and record-setting rookie TE role.
Brian Branch
2
DB
48
50
98
Immediate Foundation
Trusted instantly in nickel/safety role, including critical spots.
Hendon Hooker
3
QB
0
0
0
Incomplete/Injury context
NFI/redshirt QB development year; not useful for trust scoring.
Brodric Martin
3
DT
2
5
7
Redshirt/Low Trust
Draft capital did not create rookie-year playing time.
Colby Sorsdal
5
OL
14
28
42
Development Track
Situational trust when needed, but not a full-time win.
Antoine Green
7
WR
6
5
11
Redshirt/Low Trust
Limited rookie role.
The 2023 class was the most impressive across the board. Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Brian Branch all had trust from the jump. LaPorta and Jared Goff formed an instant bond all the way back to OTAs. Jack Campbell had a lot of trust coming out of camp and played a lot early before his role dipped. Hendon Hooker had essentially zero trust from day one and never gained any.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
2024
Player
Rd
Pos
Initial Trust
Earned Trust
Total
Tier
Why
Terrion Arnold
1
CB
48
42
90
Immediate Foundation
Immediate outside CB role because of draft capital and need.
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
2
CB
8
6
14
Incomplete/Injury context
Availability and role blockage make rookie trust hard to read.
Giovanni Manu
4
OT
0
2
2
Redshirt/Low Trust
True developmental redshirt.
Sione Vaki
4
RB/ST
18
20
38
Redshirt/Low Trust
Game-day/ST trust, but not much offensive trust.
Mekhi Wingo
6
DT
12
12
24
Redshirt/Low Trust
Some rotational/depth trust, no major role.
Christian Mahogany
6
G
2
25
27
Redshirt/Low Trust
Illness/injury delayed him, then he earned late-season OL trust.
In 2024, Terrion Arnold earned a 90 total trust score. Christian Mahogany didn't participate during training camp because of an illness, which delayed everything, but he earned trust when he got on the field later in the season.
2025
Player
Rd
Pos
Initial Trust
Earned Trust
Total
Tier
Why
Tyleik Williams
1
DT
36
28
64
Earned His Way
First-round DT got early rotation/starter-level trust, but not a Hutchinson-style every-down role.
Tate Ratledge
2
G
48
45
93
Immediate Foundation
Started all 17 games as a rookie guard.
Isaac TeSlaa
3
WR
18
26
44
Development Track
Package/development WR role with production spikes but not full-time trust.
Miles Frazier
5
G
0
8
8
Incomplete/Injury context
PUP/late activation makes him hard to score cleanly.
ST/safety-depth profile; some game-day trust, limited defensive trust.
Dominic Lovett
7
WR
8
10
18
Redshirt/Low Trust
Late WR/ST pathway, little offensive trust.
The 2025 class offered its own lessons. Tate Ratledge was an immediate foundation piece. Campbell said during a press conference over the summer that he believed the team had found a real NFL right guard. Ratledge got in and kept earning trust as the season went on. That's what Detroit is looking for. Can you earn trust in the summer? And can you build upon it?
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
The good thing is that just because a rookie doesn't earn that trust at camp doesn't mean he can't earn it during the season. St. Brown and Kerby Joseph are proof. And just because certain situations cause a player's role to shrink, that doesn't mean he can't earn it back later.
Now we head into training camp armed with this knowledge. Keep an eye on who's repping with the starters, who Campbell is talking about, who he says great things about, who gets heavy preseason snaps, and who starts Week 1. When the season ends, we'll come back and assign the 2026 class their trust scores and see where it goes from there.
