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Canadiens Analysis: Which Goalie Should Start Down The Stretch
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- Canadiens Analysis: Which Goalie Should Start Down The Stretch
Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
A goalie controversy has been brewing in the Montreal Canadiens crease for the majority of the season. It seems that some fans have lost confidence in Samuel Montembeault , and there's a certain amount of logic that supports the change.
Jakub Dobeš has outplayed him to the point that the former member of Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament was sent down to the AHL for a conditioning stint, leading to the call-up of highly-anticipated prospect Jacob Fowler for a total of ten games. Later, on the 27th of December to be precise, the Quebec-native was called back up, and consequently, Fowler was returned to the Laval Rocket.
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Since coming back with the Canadiens, Montembeault has kept dividing opinions, while producing a 5-2-2 record in the nine games he's played. At the same time, Dobeš has not lost once in regulation time in his eight appearances with the Habs since his goaltending counterpart returned to Montreal.
But has the difference in their performances really been as huge as the win column suggests?
Let's take a look at the facts.
Who Deserves Credit For Recent Success?
Since December 27, the Montreal Canadiens have been one of the best teams in the league, earnings points from the 22 games they've played (6th in points%), as well as scoring goals (4th in GF/60).
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What has been flying under the radar a little, is the fact that they've been heavily outplayed in terms of generating expected goals (22nd in xGF%). Their defence has been especially questionable (28th in xGA/60), a concerning situation for all involved.
Hence, their goaltenders have been forced to bail them out quite often, ranked 7th in GSAx/60.
And, surprisingly, Montembeault has done it even more than Dobeš.
As seen in the table, Montembeault has saved 0.9 goals above expected per 60 minutes since December 27, thus bringing the most positive value out of the three Canadiens' goaltenders. Dobeš has also done well, saving 0.64 goals above expected per hour. Both goalies have similar high-danger save percentage and low-danger save percentage, and rank somewhat above average in those statistics.
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In terms of consistency, Dobeš has had a very slight upper hand, as he's had five quality starts in his eight appearances, while Montembeault has saved more goals than expected in four out of his eight starts. Both goalies have stolen two games for their teams, meaning they have saved more goals than the goal differential between the teams featured in the match in question.
Thus, statistically it seems that lately, both Dobeš and Montembeault have not only been very important for their team's success but also performing very similarly.
So, why has Dobeš won seven of his eight starts and Montembeault "only" five of them?
Context Is Key
When we look at the Canadiens' underlying numbers with different goalies since December 27, we notice a few things.
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Firstly, when Jacob Fowler was in net, he struggled at times, but the Canadiens also had a hard time providing run support. They scored more than 1.5 goals less than expected per hour in those 5 games Fowler started, while controlling 61.8% of the expected goals. The poor finishing and below average goaltending led to the Canadiens getting only 3 points out of those 5 games.
Secondly, the Canadiens have controlled the expected goals very similarly regardless of whether Montembeault or Dobeš has been in net. However, Dobeš has enjoyed a goal share of 62.5% while Montembeault has been getting a – quite good in itself – goal share of 54.2% despite saving more goals above expected than Dobeš.
That can be explained by the Canadiens being much better at finishing their chances with Dobeš in net than with Montembeault. The Canadiens have scored more goals than expected anyway, but with Dobeš, the Canadiens have scored ten times more than expected than with Montembeault.
That's a difference that can't be credited to a goaltender, and also something one should expect to regress in the upcoming games.
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Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
While some rumours have linked Stanley Cup-winning veteran goalies such as Sergei Bobrovsky and Jordan Binnington to the Canadiens, the way the Canadiens' goaltenders have been performing lately, that doesn't seem necessary.
Goaltending is something that's consistently inconsistent, and given their performance this year, both Binnington and Bobrovsky would be as much of gambles as the current goalie tandem.
But the question still stands: who should be the starter?
Thinking of this season's performance, the answer is Dobeš. But as it seems that Montembeault is quietly getting there, and given the very good results of the past, it's more likely that he'll still get a fair share of starts, and the 1A–1B situation will continue.
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The Montreal Canadiens just have to hope that the goaltending stays decent enough, and while they're at it, they should focus on ways to fix their special teams and defensive problems, come the trade deadline.
The statistics provided are in all situations, via Natural Stat Trick.
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