Story by
Canadiens' Rebuild: A Look at Progress and Future Potential
- Story by
- Canadiens' Rebuild: A Look at Progress and Future Potential
Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
With the NHL on break for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games, set to take place in Milano-Cortina, it's the perfect time to evaluate how the Montreal Canadiens have fared with almost 70 percent of the schedule in the books.
Standings And Playoff Odds
As it stands, the Canadiens are currently second in the Atlantic Division, having secured a 32-17-8 record, good for 72 points.
Advertisement
However, it should be noted the Habs are third overall in the Eastern Conference , and sixth in the overall NHL standings. In other words, the Atlantic Division is as chaotic as ever, while offering a hotly-contested sprint for the top spots.
The race for the final Eastern Conference Wild Card spots is also quite interesting, as the Boston Bruins , a team desperately clinging onto a Wild Card playoff spot with 69 points, would be first in the Pacific Division, which is currently led by the Vegas Golden Knights (66 points).
As for Montreal's playoff odds, there are 25 remaining games on the docket, which means a lot can change between now and April 14. With that in mind, the organization is in a remarkably healthy situation, especially when we consider they're not quite done tweaking the lineup. In many ways, you could argue the rebuild is far from done.
The Canadiens have an 82%chance of qualifying for the 2025–26 playoffs and are expected to finish the season with roughly 100 points. To make matters more interesting, the odds give Montreal a reasonably good shot (35.6%) at winning their first-round series. However, that's putting the cart way ahead of the horse at this stage of the season.
Advertisement
Salary Cap Situation
No team in the NHL has a perfect roster, and there's no doubt the Canadiens could stand to improve a few areas of weakness. More on that later.
The good news for the Habs is that they're no longer stuck on LTIR funds, which do not accrue, and yet, their financial margin of manoeuvrability is quite limited.
General manager Kent Hughes has a little over $100,000 in available cap space , and will accrue an additional $80,000 between now and the NHL Trade Deadline on March 6. If the Canadiens want to make a significant trade, they will have to convince a team to acquire an asset that carries a fairly heavy cap hit, or demand salary retention from the team trading the player to the Canadiens.
Advertisement
Keep in mind, by the trade deadline contracts will only account for the remaining days in the season, which means a team trading for a player will only be on the hook for a relatively low percentage of their cap hit.
For example, if a team acquires a player who carries a $1M AAV, and there's only 25% left in the season, the team acquiring said player would only be on the hook for $250,000.
There are 42 days between the Trade Deadline and the final day of the regular season. The regular season lasts 192 days. Therefore, salaries traded at the deadline will account for only 22% of their overall cap hit.
Team Statistics At 5v5
The Habs are tied for sixth in the NHL in goals per game at 5v5, with 2.82. This represents a significant uptick of their goal scoring compared the previous season, which was 2.4 goals per game, and 17th in the league.
Defensively, the situation is a little more murky, but far from alarming. The Canadiens have allowed 2.56 goals per game at 5v5, good for 19th in the NHL. Last season, the Habs allowed 2.74 goals per game (26th in the NHL).
Advertisement
There are a few other important metrics that point to a somewhat disconcerting situation for the Canadiens, starting with their share of shots, which is just 48.91% (18th in the NHL). Ideally, that number would rise above 50% in the near future.
The same can be said about their share of expected goals (48.64%). Most teams that are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders will present a much healthier share. For example, Colorado 's xGF is 56%, Carolina's is 55.2%, and Tampa Bay's is almost 55%.
The biggest issue facing the Canadiens at this present moment is their low share of the high-danger chances. It's been a problem from the very moment head coach Martin St-Louis was hired, and though there have been incremental improvements in the last few seasons, they're still well below average, with a 46.25% share, among the worst results in the league (27th).
If the Canadiens are to acquire an impact player before the deadline, they must focus on assets that provide solid underlying numbers. A defensive specialist is not necessary, but they would be wise to find a player who generally offers above-average results when it comes to his share of shots, expected goals, and high-danger scoring chances.
Advertisement
Special Teams And Goaltending
Goaltending is a topic has led to much ink being spilled in Montreal. We recently discussed the individual performances from Samuel Montembeault , Jacob Fowler, and Jakub Dobes , but from a team standpoint, the Canadiens have an 89.97 save percentage at 5v5, good for 23rd in the NHL. The results have improved in recent weeks, but goaltending remains Montreal's biggest issue in the short term.
A strong power play (23.9%, 7th) and a weak penalty kill (76.9%, 26th) mean the Montreal Canadiens special teams are perfectly average.
It's not an ironclad way to evaluate special teams, but generally speaking, if a team's power-play and penalty-kill percentages add up to 100, they're in reasonably good shape. For the Canadiens, that number reaches 100.8, which means there's room for improvement, but there's no need to panic.
Advertisement
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Rebuilds are almost never linear, and there's bound to be a certain level of frustration involved. Just ask Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings fans how long they had to wait before their team became relevant following the decision to rebuild.
And yet, the Montreal Canadiens have essentially enjoyed a stable rebuild, a testament to the strong work by Kent Hughes, Jeff Gorton, John Sedgwick, and company.
Management has also maintained an honest discourse with the fan base, further reinforcing the already heightened level of confidence with millions of Canadiens fans around the world.
Advertisement
The team is not quite ready to compete for the Stanley Cup, and may not get to the point in the near future, but all things considered, it's fair to say the Montreal Canadiens are enjoying one of the most encouraging rebuilds in modern NHL history.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick .
All Montreal Canadiens playoff odds via Money Puck .
Related Headlines
