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The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 24, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -162 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +136 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Pirates predictionbelow, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Pirates Pick: Kyle Leahy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) | Bet to -135
My Cardinals vs Pirates best bet is on Kyle Leahy to go under his K prop line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Cardinals vs Pirates moneyline:Cardinals +136, Pirates -162
Cardinals vs Pirates over/under:6.5 (-124o / +102u)
Cardinals vs Pirates spread:Pirates -1.5 (+150), Cardinals +1.5 (-182)
| Kyle Leahy (RHP, STL) |
Stat |
Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) |
| 10-5 |
W-L |
10-11 |
| 2.4 |
fWAR (FanGraphs) |
4.1 |
| 3.65/4.87 |
ERA / xERA |
3.91/3.26 |
| 3.64/3.67 |
FIP / xFIP |
3.32/3.42 |
| 15.0% |
K-BB% |
21.0% |
| 45.0% |
GB% |
39.4% |
| .325 |
BABIP |
.295 |
| 93 |
Stuff+ |
99 |
| 105 |
Location+ |
107 |
We have so little information the last few days of the season that of 12 scheduled games on Thursday, only six of them currently have lines as of this writing, which began at 9 pm ET.
This is one of the lucky few that are on the board with two recently eliminated teams playing out a four-game series, including this early Thursday contest.
The Cardinals have been true to their intentions of limiting Kyle Leahy down the stretch, having not allowed him to surpass four innings in five straight starts in which he's failed to complete the batting order twice.
He hasn't exceeded three innings in any of his last four starts and has been piggybacked by Cooper Hjerpe in three straight.
As such, Leahy hasn't exceeded four strikeouts in four of his last five starts either, the exception being a start at Coors where he struck out six of 14 Rockies .
This season, Leahy has struck out same-handed batters 23.8% of the time, but LHBs only 20.4% of the time. Even conservatively projecting 17 batters (the number of batters he faced last time out in just three innings), that would mean 12 from the left-hand side if BARTOLO's projected lineup is correct (I substituted Henry Davis in at catcher for the early start after a night game).
The first 17 batters in the projected Pittsburgh lineup average a 21.9 K% vs RHP, which is around league average, so we're already below five strikeouts even if Leahy makes two full trips through this lineup.
The environment is unlikely to affect strikeouts much, but the park, scheduled umpire, and early forecast do suggest a further suppression of 3-5%, and we certainly welcome any help.
I have two concerns here, keeping me from investing a full unit. First, the Pirates might alter their lineup to account for the left-handed follower. Second is that the Pirates could simply post an unexpected lineup in a meaningless early game.
Since Leahy has averaged 14.2 batters faced over his last five starts, the second point is likely a more realistic concern than the first, but I still can't project Leahy for a 30% strikeout rate here, which is what it would take if he were to face fewer than 18 batters.
Pick: Kyle Leahy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125), 0.63u | Bet to -135
