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CFP bubble breakdown: Alabama, Notre Dame claim lead in great bracket debate
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- CFP bubble breakdown: Alabama, Notre Dame claim lead in great bracket debate
It's time to play choose your talking points .
Line your stomach, gird your loins or cover your ears, because college football 's amateur politicians will now begin to attempt to talk their way into the playoff , with imperfect resumes.
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First up on the stump went Texas coach Steve Sarkisian. He dialed up passionate rhetoric with all the requisite gusto after the Longhorns' win against No. 3 Texas A&M , saying it would "be a disservice to our sport" if his team, which lost three times, including once to woebegone Florida, and needed overtime and a white-knuckle grip to fend off Kentucky and Mississippi State, got omitted from the playoff.
Not to be outdone, Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said a day later it would be "an injustice" if his 10-win team, which lost to Texas, didn't receive a rose from the selection committee.
Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman, Alabama 's Kalen DeBoer and Miami's Mario Cristobal made pitches, too. We're just getting started.
The SEC 's propagandist-in-chief, Greg Sankey, hasn't even dusted off the trusty "Sesame Street" lines yet.
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The way I figure it, eight teams are locked for the playoff, without need for any finger-crossing or politicking. The grateful eight are: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.
Also earmark bids for at least one Group of Five champion and either the ACC's champion, if it's Virginia, or if five-loss Duke wins the ACC, then perhaps the Group of Five secures a second auto bid, and the ACC gets iced. However it shakes out, these final two automatic bids will take us to 10 qualifiers, leaving two at-large spots for six bubble teams.
Here are the talking points you can expect to hear from each:
Notre Dame's CFP case: Eye test
The Irish will trumpet the "best teams" talking point, as if there's a Magic 8-ball that reveals these teams. Notre Dame wants the committee to trust its eye test. "Who are the best teams now?" Freeman said after the Irish smashed Stanford, the final bit of roadkill on their schedule.
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Well, if we knew the answer, we could fire the committee and skip the politicking, couldn't we?
Notre Dame also holds the "good losses" card. It started the season by losing close games to Miami and Texas A&M, a pair of teams that are now a combined 21-3. Notre Dame's politicos will say their good losses and eye-test grade should propel them past Miami, despite losing to Miami.
I guess we also should ignore that Notre Dame owns no wins against top-15 opponents. It feasted on a schedule that included last-place teams from three of the Power Four conferences.
Alabama's CFP case: SEC performance, strength of schedule
The Crimson Tide will tout the SEC's strength and point to their 7-1 finish in conference play, a record that's got them headed to the SEC Championship game . The Tide dazzle in ESPN's strength of schedule metrics, and they own the best win of any bubble team, snapping Georgia's 33-game home win streak with a 24-21 triumph back in September.
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You won't hear the Tide say much about their possession of one of the worst losses of any bubble team, a Week 1 flop against a Florida State team that's now 5-7. Hey, if you must lose to bad teams, better to do it early, right? That's some tried-and-true college football logic.
"There's not a question in my mind" Alabama is a playoff team , Tide coach Kalen DeBoer said.
So long as he's doing the judging, Alabama will be fine. In reality, it probably will be fine so long as it doesn't get blown out in the SEC Championship.
BYU's CFP case: Record
The Cougars own the best record among bubble teams. At 11-1, their only loss came at Big 12 beast Texas Tech.
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The Cougars also own better strength of schedule metrics than the non-SEC teams on the bubble.
They'd be a no-brainer choice if the bubble was less crowded, but the committee's affection for Notre Dame and Alabama's first-place status in the SEC standings might leave BYU needing a Big 12 Championship to receive a bid.
The committee gave the Big 12 no love last year. BYU shouldn't trust the committee this time around, either.
Miami's CFP case: Head-to-head
The Hurricanes beat Notre Dame. Should that not count, just because it happened in Week 1?
"You get to settle it on the field, where head-to-head is always the No. 1 criteria," Miami's Mario Cristobal said.
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Ah, Mario, you must be new here. Head-to-head only matters when the committee says it matters, but it's Miami's top talking point. The Hurricanes will blast it from now until Selection Sunday and hope that's enough to overcome failing to reach the conference championship in the weakest of the Power Four conferences.
Vanderbilt's CFP case: Diego Pavia
The Commodores face the biggest roadblocks in rhetoric. Their two losses came against two other bubble teams — Alabama and Texas — and their schedule, while tough, doesn't grade as tough as either Alabama or Texas.
The Commodores also lack a premier victory, but their best win came in their final trip down the catwalk, a 45-24 smashing of Tennessee on the road.
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When you can't argue head-to-head, eye test, elite victories or point to the toughest schedule, where does that leave you?
Reminding everyone you possess Diego Pavia.
"We've got a Heisman," Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said.
Not yet, you don't, but Lea might have better luck making that argument.
Texas' CFP case: Premier wins, strength of schedule
As Texas tries to become the first three-loss team to talk its way into the playoff, the Longhorns can start their argument in Week 1. They played defending national champion Ohio State on the road and gave the Buckeyes what remains their toughest test in a 14-7 loss.
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As Sarkisian put it, if Texas didn't schedule Ohio State and inserted a cupcake, it would be 10-2. That argument has merit. Texas also touts the most robust schedule strength of the bubble teams.
It owns the best collection of wins, coming against Texas A&M (11-1), Oklahoma (10-2) and Vanderbilt (10-2). At least two of those teams are playoff bound.
The talking point you won't hear from Texas: It lost to Florida, a team now 4-8.
Play your way into the playoff if you can. Talk your way in if you must.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer .
This story was updated to change a video.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Alabama, Notre Dame claim lead in College Football Playoff debate
