Chiefs playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model odds entering Week 13

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Chiefs playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model odds entering Week 13

Bailey Bassett, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Nov 26, 2025 ·

4 min read

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The post Chiefs playoff picture: Updated DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model odds entering Week 13 appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in unfamiliar territory. The team has made five of the last six Super Bowls, regularly sitting atop the AFC standings during that time. This year, though, they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff picture . Currently, the Chiefs are all the way down in the 10th seed. Everybody believes that they have the talent to claw their way into the postseason, but it is far from a guarantee that they will make the playoffs this year.

The team has been getting hot recently, though. Most recently, they bested the Indianapolis Colts in overtime in a game that was eerily similar to Chiefs' victories of the past. Analytical models feel fairly confident that Kansas City will make the playoffs, but it is far from a guarantee that the team will be able to do so.

FTN Fantasy DVOA

DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, is an all-encompassing metric that measures a team's efficiency on every play to league average when accounting for situation and opponent. Down and distances are the situations, and strength of schedule is the opponent factor.

The FTN Fantasy website gives the Chiefs a Dave (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) of 20.4%. That means they are considered 20.4% more effective than the average team. That is one of the best marks in the NFL, and while it hasn't translated into wins this season, it shows that Kansas City is just as talented as ever before. Luck just hasn't been on their side as much as usual.

The Chiefs' DAVE mark is the best in the AFC West and the fifth best in the NFL as a whole. This mark was used to simulate the potential outcomes of the season 25,000 times, and when doing so, FTN gave Kansas City a 65.7% chance to make the playoffs. This is the most optimistic outlook of the playoff projection platforms used in this article. It trails the Denver Broncos ' 97.9% playoff likelihood, but it is better than the Los Angeles Chargers ' 48.8% chance to make the postseason.

The Chargers are currently trailing both teams in the standings, and they've already lost to both teams this season. The Chiefs have won the division nine straight times. That surely won't happen this year, but Kansas City is still in the midst of a dynasty , and FTN doesn't think it will end quite yet.

ESPN Playoff Projections

Before their Week 12 win, the Chiefs were 0-5 in one-score games, and ESPN believes that their victory over the Chiefs saved their season. They are given a greater than 50/50 chance to make the playoffs by the ESPN playoff projector as well. In fact, the Football Power Index gives the team a 63% chance to make the playoffs.

The Chiefs are also given a 13% chance to win the division and a 15% chance to make the Super Bowl, the latter of which proves the Chiefs could still make a deep playoff run if they are able to squeeze into the postseason. While their playoff probability is the seventh-highest mark in the AFC, their Super Bowl appearances odds rank third in the conference.

Historically, the Chiefs have thrived in late-game situations because Patrick Mahomes is a wizard with the football in his hands and with his back against the wall. The Chiefs' win over the Colts may have gotten the team back to their normal ways in that regard. Mahomes is still arguably the best player in the NFL , and with Travis Kelce , Rashee Rice , Xavier Worthy , and Hollywood Brown , he has more weapons to target than he has had in recent years. Isiah Pacheco is set to return from injury , too.

The Athletic's Playoff Projections

The Athletic's Playoff Simulator is the least confident in the Chiefs making the playoffs, but it still gives them a 61% chance to do so . That is only two percent greater than the Chargers' projection, meaning a Wild Card playoff spot could very well come down to who wins the second matchup of the year between those two.

The Chargers have been beaten up as of late, but reinforcements have been/are coming. Most notably, Omarion Hampton is nearing a return . The Chargers have regularly squandered opportunities in the past, whereas the Chiefs have found ways to win at all costs, so it makes sense as to why they are favored to go further than Los Angeles .

Kansas City dug themselves into quite a hole, but they have more experience playing under pressure and coming out on top than any other team in the NFL. Losses going forward could be fatal, but this is a team that hasn't lost that many games during the Mahomes era overall. Don't count the Chiefs out of making the postseason, and if they get there, another Super Bowl run could be just around the corner.

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