ClutchPoints’ Bracketology: The bubble is hanging on for dear life

Story by

Story by
ClutchPoints’ Bracketology: The bubble is hanging on for dear life

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Mon, Mar 9, 2026 ·

7 min read

About Our Ads

ClutchPoints' Bracketology: The bubble is hanging on for dear life appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

There is a large crowd that gets louder each year that wants to expand the NCAA Tournament. 76 teams! 80 teams! In what has become a college football-esque discussion, some believe that more teams, and more games, is always the answer.

The counterpoint to that? The teams that we would be letting in are simply not very good, nor are they deserving of tournament bids. Heck, non-deserving teams are often let into the 68-team field, and that will almost certainly be the case on a floundering bubble this season.

Take the results from the final weekend of the regular season as an example. UCF lost by 15 points against West Virginia on Friday night, the Knights' fourth loss in a row. On Saturday, Virginia Tech lost to Virginia, SMU took its fourth straight loss against a bad Florida State team, NC State lost to Stanford at home, Indiana got smoked by Ohio State, Auburn got throttled by Alabama , New Mexico lost its second-straight game, Cal lost to Wake Forest and Texas took a home loss to Oklahoma while USC was not competitive at home against UCLA.

Some of these teams are already going to make the tournament! Take this dismal bubble as an example. We do not need any more teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Let's look at who is in and out of the current field before conference championship week gets underway.

Bold = Automatic Qualifier

*= Clinched Automatic Bid

Note – With conference tournaments in progress, the automatic bid will be awarded to the highest remaining seed in each conference tournament as of the morning of Monday, March 9.

East Region

1. Duke 16. UMBC/Bethune-Cookman

8. UCLA9. TCU

5. Vanderbilt 12. Stephen F. Austin

4. Kansas 13. Liberty

6. BYU11. NC State

3. Purdue 14. East Tennessee State

7. Saint Mary's10. Missouri

2. UConn 15. Portland State

Midwest Region

1. Michigan 16. Merrimack

8. Utah State 9. Saint Louis

5. St. John's 12. Northern Iowa*

4. Virginia 13. Hofstra

6. Tennessee11. VCU/SMU

3. Nebraska 14. North Dakota State*

7. Miami (FL)10. Texas A&M

2. Houston 15. Wright State

West Region

1. Arizona 16. Lehigh

8. Villanova9. Iowa

5. Arkansas 12. Yale

4. Gonzaga 13. High Point*

6. Louisville11. Santa Clara/Indiana

3. Alabama 14. Troy

7. Kentucky10. UCF

2. Illinois 15. Queens*

South Region

1. Florida 16. Howard/Long Island*

8. Clemson9. Ohio State

5. Wisconsin 12. South Florida

4. Texas Tech 13. Utah Valley

6. North Carolina11. Texas

3. Iowa State 14. UC Irvine

7. Georgia 10. Miami (OH)

2. Michigan State 15. Tennessee State*

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Missouri, UCF, Texas, NC State

Last Four In: Santa Clara, VCU, SMU, Indiana

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Auburn, Stanford, New Mexico

Next Four Out: San Diego State, Cincinnati, California, West Virginia

Multi-bid leagues

SEC – 10

Big Ten – 10

ACC – 8

Big 12 – 8

Big East – 3

WCC – 3

Atlantic 10 – 2

Bid-stealers to keep an eye out for

Atlantic 10

Most likely bid-stealers: VCU, George Mason, St. Joe's

Saint Louis has been mostly rolling through the A-10 this season, and the Billikens are looking at a No. 8 or 9 seed regardless of what happens in their conference tournament. However, they are not playing quite as well as they were earlier in the season and are coming off of a 29-point loss on the road against George Mason.

VCU is the second-best team in the conference, and the Rams are currently in our "Last Four In" heading into championship week. However, George Mason and a red-hot St. Joe's team could also play spoiler for the bubble.

Mountain West

Most likely bid-stealers: New Mexico, San Diego State, Grand Canyon

The Mountain West isn't nearly as strong as it has been in past years, and both San Diego State and New Mexico have been playing their way out of the tournament in recent weeks. However, both the Lobos and the Aztecs will fancy their chances to knock off a very good, but not invincible, Utah State team on a neutral court and secure an automatic bid. Keep an eye out for a talented Grand Canyon squad that won 13 conference games and has a traveling fanbase as well.

MAC

Most Likely bid-stealer: Akron

This is the one everyone is talking about. Despite a 31-0 regular season record and an 18-0 mark in conference play, Akron is the betting favorite to win the MAC conference tournament. John Groce and company are 26-5 on the season, have won seven games in a row and suffered their only conference loss against the RedHawks by three points on the road back in early January.

With the rest of the bubble falling apart, Miami (OH) moved up to a No. 10 seed in Bracketology this week, and we're considering it a lock to make the field even with a loss this week. Akron is the most-likely bid-stealer in the country as a result, and the bubble will have close eyes on the Zips in the coming days.

Biggest storylines to watch

UConn's shocking loss to Marquette on Saturday, featuring an epic Dan Hurley ejection , means that the top line is probably set. Duke, Michigan and Arizona have continued to roll, while Florida has seized the final No. 1 as one of the hottest teams in the country. Unless the Gators lose early in Nashville, they will be the top dogs in the south on Selection Sunday.

The constant movement on the two-through-four lines has continued. UConn and Houston look like locks for the No. 2 line at the moment, but Iowa State can still catch Illinois or Michigan State if either of the latter two slip up in Indianapolis. Alabama has also jumped up onto the three line while Kansas, Gonzaga and Texas Tech sit as No. 4 seeds.

At this point, only four teams are really in danger of missing the field that are currently in. NC State and Texas took disappointing losses on Saturday, but both have quality metrics and good wins, putting them above the First Four on a weak bubble like this one. They should be feeling pretty good no matter what happens this week. That leaves Santa Clara, who gets a crack at St. Mary's on Monday night, and VCU, who will have its chances to secure an auto-bid, sitting just above SMU and Indiana as the final teams in.

Outside the field, the two Mountain West bubble teams are likely in a spot where they must win the conference tournament to make the field. That leaves three teams that can play their way back into the First Four: Virginia Tech, Auburn and Stanford.

Stanford is the No. 10 seed in the ACC with a must-win game to start against Pitt before another must-win game against NC State, who it just beat. In order to get into the field, Stanford will likely have to also beat second-seeded Virginia to jump in the field. Virginia Tech opens with Wake Forest, and a win there would get the Hokies a shot at Clemson. A quarterfinal appearance may be good enough to get Virginia Tech a bid.

In the SEC, Auburn starts with a game it absolutely must win against Mississippi State. A victory there would earn the Tigers a shot at Tennessee, and Auburn probably needs a win there as well to get into the field.

Mobilize your Website

View Site in Mobile | Classic

Share by: