ClutchPoints’ Bracketology: Final March Madness predictions on Selection Sunday

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ClutchPoints’ Bracketology: Final March Madness predictions on Selection Sunday

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sun, Mar 15, 2026 ·

5 min read

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Selection Sunday is here! All of the conference championships except for five have been decided, and the selection committee will be wrapping up the final bracket on Sunday evening at 6 p.m. EST. Before then, it's time for one final Bracketology .

Saturday brought the last few bits of chaos around the country. A shocking loss by Saint Louis, at the end of one of the wildest sequences of the season, shrunk the at-large pool by one and made teams like Auburn, San Diego State, Miami (OH), SMU and Texas a bit more uncomfortable heading into Selection Sunday.

In the power conferences, Yaxel Lendeborg sent Michigan to the Big Ten title game with a game-winner. Duke survived Virginia to win the ACC crown. St. John's made a major statement with a blowout win over UConn at Madison Square Garden. Arizona prevailed from a heavyweight clash with Houston in the Big 12 title game.

The bubble did catch a break on Saturday evening when Utah State held off San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship, keeping the Aztecs on the bubble and likely outside the field despite a quality run in Las Vegas. Ole Miss' Cinderella run through the SEC also came to an end against Arkansas in the semifinals, taking another bid-stealer off the board.

Who is in and who is out as everyone eagerly awaits the final NCAA Tournament bracket?

Bold = Automatic Qualifier

*= Clinched Automatic Bid

Note – For the five conference tournaments that are still in progress, the automatic bid will be awarded to the highest remaining seed in each respective tournament as of the morning of Sunday, March 15.

East Region

1. Duke* 16. Lehigh*/Prarie View A&M*

8. UCLA9. Villanova

5. Texas Tech 12. McNeese*

4. Alabama 13. Northern Iowa*

6. BYU11. Texas/SMU

3. Purdue 14. Wright State*

7. Saint Mary's10. NC State

2. UConn 15. Idaho*

Midwest Region

1. Michigan 16. Queens*

8. Utah State*9. Saint Louis

5. Vanderbilt 12. High Point*

4. Virginia 13. Hofstra*

6. Tennessee 11. VCU

3. Illinois 14. North Dakota State*

7. Miami (FL)10. Texas A&M

2. Iowa State 15. Furman*

West Region

1. Arizona* 16. UMBC*

8. Georgia9. Iowa

5. Wisconsin 12. Yale

4. Arkansas 13. Hawai'i*

6. Louisville 11. South Florida

3. Gonzaga* 14. Troy*

7. Kentucky10. Santa Clara

2. Michigan State 15. Siena*

South Region

1. Florida 16. Howard*/Long Island*

8. TCU9. Ohio State

5. Kansas 12. Akron*

4. St. John's* 13. Cal Baptist*

6. North Carolina11. Missouri/UCF

3. Nebraska 14. Kennesaw State*

7. Clemson10. Miami (OH)

2. Houston 15. Tennessee State*

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes:Santa Clara, NC State, Texas A&M, Miami (OH)

Last Four In: Missouri, UCF, Texas, SMU

First Four Out:Oklahoma, San Diego State, Auburn, Indiana

Next Four Out:New Mexico, Cincinnati, Stanford, Seton Hall

Multi-bid leagues

SEC – 10

Big Ten – 9

ACC – 8

Big 12 – 8

Big East – 3

WCC – 3

Atlantic 10 – 2

MAC – 2

Bid-stealers to keep an eye out for

Atlantic 10

Potential bid-stealer: Dayton

Saint Louis dominated the Atlantic 10 this season, but it fell just short on Saturday in the conference semifinals against Dayton. That leaves the Flyers on the board as the final potential bid-stealer on Sunday morning.

Dayton would slide in as a No. 11 or 12 seed with a win on Sunday over VCU, who becomes the A-10 at-large in the latest mock bracket on the No. 11 line. That moves the Rams out of Dayton and into the Round of 64, moving Missouri down into the First Four for now.

If Dayton were to win on Sunday, VCU would remain in the projected field but would be back in the First Four, bumping Missouri up into the "Last Four Byes" section.

MAC

Bid-stealer: Akron

There will very likely be a bid stealer out of the MAC after Miami (OH)'s perfect season went up in smoke on Thursday. The bubble groaned as the final buzzer sounded on UMass' upset of the RedHawks in the MAC quarterfinals, opening up the possibility of a two-bid MAC.

Miami should still be in the field thanks to a very weak bubble. For now, Travis Steele's squad still sits firmly in the "Last Four Byes" section, above teams that have already lost this week such as Missouri, UCF, Texas and SMU.

It wasn't always pretty throughout the weekend, but Akron secured the MAC Tournament Championship with a close win over Toledo on Shammah Scott's game-winning 3-pointer. The Zips should be comfortably on the No. 12 line, while Miami (OH) awaits its fate.

Biggest storylines to watch

There will be no more movement on the top line despite Florida's loss to Vanderbilt opening the door for someone to steal the fourth No. 1 seed. Both UConn and Houston fell in their respective conference title games, so the Gators should be safe at the top of the south.

Arkansas jumps up to a No. 4 seed with its run to the SEC title game, but could be replaced by Vanderbilt if the Commodores can lift the trophy on Sunday. St. John's is also up to the No. 4 line after winning the Big East title, replacing Texas Tech.

The Big Ten Tournament has also caused some movement. Wisconsin is up to a No. 5 seed and Purdue is back on the No. 3 line after deep runs, but the Boilermakers can't be any higher than that even with an upset of Michigan on Sunday. The Wolverines, on the other hand, are firmly locked into the No. 2 overall seed and will be the top seed in the Midwest.

On the bubble, Oklahoma and San Diego State both fell one win short of getting into the field. A win over Arkansas would have moved the Sooners up into the Last Four In, but Darius Acuff Jr. had other ideas. The Aztecs, despite essentially eliminating New Mexico on Friday night, likely needed to win the Mountain West to get into the field. Oklahoma and SDSU are now the first two teams out heading into Selection Sunday.

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