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Friday's slate is jam-packed, and with Duke traveling to Virginia in an ACC rivalry matchup and NC State heading out west to take on Stanford in a late-night ACC showdown, there's a great lineup of games to add to your betting card.
I've pinpointed three player props for Friday, including picks for Virginia's Jekail Middlebrook, Stanford's Jordan Onovughe, and NC State's Keenan Jackson.
With that said, let's dive into my top three college football player props and NCAAF picks for Week 8 on Friday, Oct. 23.
Jekail Middlebrook Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115 · bet365)
Jordan Onovughe Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (+118 · FanDuel)
Keenan Jackson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125 · FanDuel)
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Middlebrook has locked down Virginia's lead-back job. He has 396 yards on 81 carries (4.9 per carry) and three touchdown s through seven games.
In the four games against Power Four competition, he ran for 64 against NC State, 75 against West Virginia, 65 at Florida State, and 59 at SMU . That works out to about 66 yards a game, so this line sits right at his usual output.
At 4.9 yards a carry, he needs only 13 or 14 touches, and he has handled 14 to 17 in three of those four games.
The game script supports a steady workload. Virginia is a home favorite by about 2.5 points in a game with a total under 50, where the offense stays on schedule and keeps running. The Cavaliers already run more than 40 times a game, and Beau Pribula has struggled against Power Four defenses, completing 14 of 32 at Florida State. The offensive line has also given up 15 sacks over two weeks, which makes the ground game the steadier way to move the chains.
Duke's run defense is strong on paper, allowing about 108 yards a game, which ranks in the top 25. However, Middlebrook's per-carry efficiency gives him margin, and Virginia's best path to winning a tight game is leaning on its lead back.
Pick: Jekail Middlebrook Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This prop is built on game script. Stanford hosts NC State as a touchdown underdog in a game with a total near 55, and the Wolfpack's defense is the kind a trailing passing team wants to face.
It allows nearly eight yards per attempt and about 230 passing yards a game, and it ranks 133rd nationally in EPA per pass. Stanford already throws on 55% of its plays at around 34 attempts a game. Falling behind pushes that number higher.
Davis Warren spreads the ball around on short crossers and slants, with eight different players holding at least five catches, and that style suits Jordan Onovughe. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound senior is a natural underneath target.
He caught four passes for 43 yards against Elon, and two of them were the 9- and 13-yard gains that kept drives moving. His ceiling shows up when the passing game opens. When Warren threw for 396 yards against Georgia Tech , Onovughe turned three catches into 55 yards, including a 30-yarder.
Onovughe needs only about three catches at his usual 10 yards a grab. In a game where Stanford likely throws 40 times or more against a leaky secondary, he has a realistic path to 30. The plus-money price pays for that possibility.
Jordan Onovughe Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (+118)
NC State's junior receiver has five touchdown catches through six games, tied for 15th in the country and more than the four he had in his previous 26 games combined. Jackson has scored in three of six games, including three against Vanderbilt and one apiece against App State and Louisville .
Those five scores account for more than half of CJ Bailey's nine touchdown passes, so the offense runs through him in the red zone.
The matchup is as good as it gets. Stanford allows about 41.5 points a game against FBS opponents, which ranks 135th, and about 452 yards a game, the second most in the Power Four.
Its pass defense gives up nearly 300 yards a game, and opponents have scored on 96% of their red-zone trips. The Cardinal's havoc rate is the lowest in the ACC, so Bailey should have clean pockets. Stanford ranks just as poorly in the numbers that matter for touchdown props.
NC State is favored by about a touchdown with a total around 55, which implies roughly 31 points for the Wolfpack. The team is also coming off a bye and should continue its sharp play offensively, especially now that it leads the ACC in third-down conversion rate.
That much scoring against a defense this porous leaves plenty of touchdowns to go around, and a 6-foot-3 target who already leads the team in touchdown receptions is the most likely to collect one.
Pick: Keenan Jackson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
