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College Football Playoff: First-Round Matchups, Predictions, Storylines to Watch
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- College Football Playoff: First-Round Matchups, Predictions, Storylines to Watch
The first round for the 12-team College Football Playoff in the 2025-26 season is set. Indiana, Ohio State , Georgia, and Texas Tech claimed byes in the first round as the top-four teams, with Oregon , Ole Miss , Texas A&M , Oklahoma , Alabama , and Miami claiming the at-large spots. Tulane and James Madison earned the final two spots in the field as conference champions.
The first round kicks off on Friday, Dec. 19, with Oklahoma hosting Alabama. Three more games take place on Saturday, Dec. 20: Miami at Texas A&M , Tulane at Ole Miss , and James Madison at Oregon.
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What are the key matchups, storylines, and way-too-early predictions for the first-round games after Sunday's announcement? Athlon Sports previews what to watch:
College Football Playoff: Matchups, Storylines to Watch in the First Round
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer throws a pass against the Auburn Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Sept. 20, 2025.Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama
Date:Friday, Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
TV:ABC/ESPN
Early Spread:Oklahoma -1.5
This is the second meeting for Alabama and Oklahoma this season, as the Sooners scored a crucial 23-21 victory in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15. The Crimson Tide won the yardage battle (406 to 212), but the Sooners scored on an interception return, recovered a fumble, and held a massive edge in field position (average of 42-yard line compared to 20-yard line for Alabama).
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Points are expected to be at a premium once again in this one. Alabama's offense sputtered late in the season and was held to seven points in the SEC Championship Game loss to Georgia. Quarterback Ty Simpson and receivers Ryan Williams , Germie Bernard , and Isaiah Horton are capable of testing Oklahoma's secondary, but the passing attack needs more help from a sluggish rushing attack. If Alabama can't establish some consistency on the ground, coach Kalen DeBoer's offense will once again ask too much of Simpson. Of course, Oklahoma's defense isn't going to make life easy. The Sooners held opponents to 13.9 points a game on the strength of a standout defensive front.
Although Alabama's offense had its share of issues down the stretch, Oklahoma averaged only 4.93 yards a play in SEC games. The Sooners struggled to run the ball, had issues up front, and are still working to get quarterback John Mateer 's game up a notch after an early-season thumb injury. The Crimson Tide won't get the national accolades of Oklahoma's defense, but coordinator Kane Wommack's group is holding teams to 17.4 points a contest.
Way-Too-Early Prediction: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 17
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck throws the ball against the SMU Mustangs in Dallas on Nov 1, 2025.Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami
Date:Saturday, Dec. 20 at Noon p.m. ET
TV:ABC/ESPN
Early Spread:Texas A&M -4
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This showdown in College Station kicks off a trio of playoff games on Dec. 20 and is easily the most intriguing matchup of the first round. Miami moved into the 12-team field in a bit of a surprise, jumping Notre Dame in the final selections despite ranking behind the Fighting Irish in the previous five weeks.
Texas A&M appeared to be the SEC's top team for the bulk of the '25 season, but a Black Friday loss to Texas dropped coach Mike Elko's team out of contention for a first-round bye. The Aggies are strong in the trenches with one of the nation's top offensive lines, along with a dynamic quarterback in Marcel Reed and receivers Mario Craver and Kevin Concepcion. Elko's defense also ranks among the best in college football , holding opponents to 21.9 points a contest. Standout edge-rusher Cashius Howell is tied for fourth nationally with 11 1/2 sacks.
Miami matches up well with Texas A&M thanks to its strength in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes' offensive front, quarterback Carson Beck , and receiver Malachi Toney will challenge the Aggies' defense. And when Texas A&M has the ball, Miami's line can meet the challenge by stuffing the Aggies' rushing attack and pressuring quarterback Marcel Reed.
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Way-Too-Early Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Miami 20
Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passes the ball against the LSU Tigers at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Sept. 27, 2025.© Ayrton Breckenridge/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) vs. No. 11 Tulane (11-2)
Date:Saturday, Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV:TNT
Early Spread:Ole Miss -16.5
It's a rematch of an early-season non-conference matchup. In that first meeting, Ole Miss easily handled Tulane 45-10 in Oxford. The circumstances around this one are a little different, as the Rebels have a new coach (Pete Golding) with Lane Kiffin departing for LSU
. However, the on-field battles remain the same.
In the first meeting, Ole Miss torched Tulane for 548 yards behind big days from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss
(419 total yards) and running back Kewan Lacy
(68 rushing yards). The Rebels scored on eight of their 11 drives, while the defense limited the Green Wave to just 282 yards.
The rematch factor should help Tulane make the proper adjustments, but the Green Wave's shaky pass defense will be under attack early and often from Chambliss. For Tulane to pull off the upset, the rushing attack has to go after an Ole Miss defense ranked 13th in the SEC against the run, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff
will need a productive day on the ground and through the air. A high-scoring affair doesn't favor the Green Wave. Sumrall's team must find a way to keep the pace and a lower-scoring battle in their favor.
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Way-Too-Early Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Tulane 20
Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore warms up before his team's game against the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Nov. 29, 2025.Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard
No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 12 James Madison (12-1)
Date:Saturday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV:TNT
Early Spread:Oregon -20.5
Oregon is a massive favorite against James Madison in what's set to be the final game of the first round on Saturday night.
The Ducks cruised to an 11-1 record, with the team's only defeat coming to No. 1 Indiana. Coach Dan Lanning's team could be poised for a deep run in the playoff thanks to a complete team that includes standout quarterback Dante Moore
and a prolific rushing attack ranked No. 1 in the Big Ten
. Additionally, Oregon's defense (No. 16 in success rate) only allowed one opponent to score more than 28 points. The Ducks limited opponents to just 4.2 yards a play.
James Madison has nothing to lose as a heavy underdog, so coach Bob Chesney's team can take a couple of chances or empty the playbook in hopes of pulling off the upset. The Dukes bring one of the nation's top defenses to Eugene, holding opponents to 15.8 points a game and limiting offenses to 4.1 yards a snap. Chesney's defense thrives at generating negative plays (85 tackles for a loss) and held eight of its opponents under 100 rushing yards.
The combination of Autzen Stadium and Oregon's balanced and deep roster, is likely to be too much for JMU's upset hopes.
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Way-Too-Early Prediction: Oregon 38, James Madison 13
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 7, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
