Story by
College Football Predictions, Picks: Saturday Night Best Bets for October 3
- Story by
- College Football Predictions, Picks: Saturday Night Best Bets for October 3
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google .
The night slate for Week 5 of the college football season features multiple top-15 teams heading on the road in-conference, including No. 4 Miami at Clemson and No. 6 Indiana at Rutgers.
Advertisement
Our staff took a look at the full window, though, in order to spotlight their best bets and top picks.
With that said, let's take a look at our college football predictionsand NCAAF picks for the Week 5 night games on Saturday, October 3.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
College Football Predictions, Picks
Game
Time (ET)
Pick
7 p.m.
7:30 p.m.
7:30 p.m.
11 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page , which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
By Joshua Nunn
I like Coastal Carolina at +115 against Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern's defense has been awful the last couple of weeks, allowing 6.6 yards per play with basically no pass rush. The Eagles have recorded only two sacks over the past three weeks after racking up six in the opener against Charleston Southern.
Advertisement
Now, I always try to factor out the FCS gap because some teams inflate numbers against those opponents, but even with that caveat, this looks bad for the Eagles.
Coastal quarterback Deuce Bailey has been solid enough with 1,039 passing yards and a 10:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Chanticleers also have five receivers who can make explosive plays, and that matters a lot when you're facing a defense that can't consistently get off the field.
Coastal isn't an elite team, but it has played well in recent weeks against Delaware and Liberty.
Matchups matter here. Coastal's offense should be able to move the ball against what's likely the worst FBS defense it'll face all season.
Advertisement
On the other side, the Chants' red-zone defense has allowed touchdowns on 7-of-15 attempts this year and has held opponents scoreless on five trips into the red zone. I'm skeptical Georgia Southern's offense will be efficient enough on the road to overcome that.
The scheduling context favors Coastal too. Georgia Southern has been in plenty of "play-up" spots, and its upcoming slate doesn't get easier with James Madison, Old Dominion, a bye week and the Deeper Than Hate rivalry against Appalachian State.
Coastal wins this game, and it could do it convincingly. I'll take the Chants +115 at home.
Pick: Coastal Carolina ML +105
Advertisement
The most interesting battle of Week 5 may come down to the incompetence of the Washington offense against the struggling USC defense.
Both units have led their teams to embarrassing losses.
The Huskies run a heavy amount of both inside and outside zone, a run concept the USC defense has a high Success Rate against at 59%.
Desmond Williams Jr. should find success in scrambles and busted plays against the Trojans defense, but nothing in the zone coverage numbers suggests Washington can create explosives from the pocket.
Conversely, Jayden Maiava has dominated Cover 3 this season to the tune of a 61% Success Rate with a big play on one of every four attempts.
Advertisement
Another edge for USC comes in the rushing attack, using a heavy amount of assignment-based run concepts. The Trojans have run man schemes on 64 snaps this season behind King Miller, who's averaging 3.6 yards after first contact while forcing 22 missed tackles.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for USC to be an 11.5-point favorite, giving a slight investment nod to the Trojans. From run concepts and coverage looks, USC holds the advantage on both offense and defense.
Look to back the Trojans as home favorites despite the negative press following Lincoln Riley in every interview. USC has the advantage in designed calls, which should outlast a Washington offense based on busted plays.
Pick: USC -9
By Stuckey
Advertisement
Army had a very fortunate victory over Temple last week in a dream situational spot.
Well, the opposite holds true this week for the Black Knights, who find themselves in a much more disadvantageous spot this week, heading out on the road for a second straight game in a non-conference game against a Louisiana Tech team that had a bye last week.
The Bulldogs not only have extra time to prepare for Army's unique offensive scheme, but they should also benefit from facing Army two years ago in a bowl game.
Louisiana Tech accepted that bowl invite very late in the process after Marshall had to pull out due to roster limitations once Charles Huff darted for Southern Miss.
Advertisement
As a result, the Bulldogs ended up playing an abundance of defensive backups who didn't really see any action throughout the regular season. As you might imagine, it didn't look pretty, but a handful of those players are now primary contributors for this underrated LA Tech defense. That experience should pay dividends here.
This matchup also marks one of the largest strength of schedule disparities on the Week 5 slate.
Louisiana Tech has played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country (with road games at Baylor and LSU in a pair of covers), per Sagarin, while Army comes in at 126th.
The Bulldogs could also be close to full strength with the potential return of starting quarterback Blake Baker and one of its best defensive linemen from injury.
Advertisement
Despite the brutal schedule, Louisiana Tech rates very highly in Defensive Line Yards, which is always a positive signal when facing Army. Meanwhile, the Army defense hasn't done anything very well outside of limiting explosive plays.
Louisiana Tech shouldn't have any issues moving the ball against a defense that ranks 135th in Success Rate allowed despite facing an easy schedule and benefiting from the best starting field position in the country.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +1.5 (Play to PK)
By Doug Ziefel
Kedrick Reescano has been a key piece of Arizona's offense this season, but his workload has never translated into a true workhorse role. He's sharing the backfield with Ismail Mahdi, Antwan Roberts and Quincy Craig in what the team has openly described as a "three-to-four-headed" committee.
Advertisement
His carry totals have ranged from 7 to 15 per game, and his season-high rushing total is just 49 yards, set in Week 2 against BYU.
Across his four games this season, he's totaled 161 yards on 40 carries (4.0 yards per attempt) — a per-game average that sits right around tonight's line, but one built on a shared workload rather than a featured role that could push it well above that mark.
Cincinnati presents a genuine two-way challenge for this prop. The Bearcats boast one of the best rushing attacks in the country at 270 yards a game, which means Arizona's defense will be focused heavily on stopping the run on the other side of the ball.
However, it also means Arizona's own offensive staff may lean more on Noah Fifita's passing attack to keep pace in a game that projects as competitive and potentially high-scoring, rather than establishing a heavy, featured ground game through Reescano.
Advertisement
Arizona has already thrown nearly as often as it's run this season, and nothing about this matchup — a shootout-shaped total near 56 points against an explosive Cincinnati offense — points toward a sudden shift to a run-it-at-all-costs approach.
Pick: Kedrick Reescano Under 39.5 Rushing Yards
