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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move.
Last week's card finished 5-4 with a couple of brutal late game swings with Houston and Bowling Green, but I'll take the positive result.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, I have highlighted my eight favorite Week 9 spots. As usual, they are pretty ugly on the surface.
2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
2026: 45-29-2 (60.8%)
Overall: 268-207-5 (56.4%)
Let's dive into my college football predictionsand NCAAF picks for Week 9.
| Game |
Time (ET) |
Pick |
| * | 12 p.m. |
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| * | 1 p.m. |
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| * | 2 p.m. |
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| * | 3 p.m. |
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| * | 3:30 p.m. |
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| * | 3:30 p.m. |
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| * | 7:30 p.m. |
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| * | 7:30 p.m. |
Head coach Mike Locksley has finally been let go in College Park. That has been long overdue.
If you want to gauge just how disappointing his tenure went, look no further than how he performed compared to market expectations in Big Ten play.
Since he took over the job in 2019, Maryland has gone an FBS-worst 22-41 (34.9%) ATS in league games, failing to cover by an asinine 6.5 points per game. No other team has even come close to that despicable a margin over that span.
That move can only lead to positive results on the field — at least for one week following the bye.
Giving Clint Trickett full control of the offense should lead to positive results for quarterback Malik Washington, and the defense should show some new wrinkles that Illinois won't have film on.
Not only am I buying low on the Terps (who have played Virginia Tech, Ohio State , UCLA and Nebraska in four of their past five games) following the coaching change, I'm selling high on the Illini following their upset win over Oregon.
In my humble opinion, that result had more to do with the state of the Ducks, who still outgained Illinois, 426-314, in that defeat.
Illinois still has major issues on defense, where it ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in Success Rate allowed.
The Illini actually have the second-worst Passing Success Rate, allowed which should be music to Maryland's ears since the Terps have no semblance of a rushing attack. They need to move the ball with predominantly quick passes, which is exactly how you move the ball on this Illini defense.
Additionally, Illinois starting quarterback Kaitin Houser remains out with an injury. Freshman Michael Clayton II will make his second career start after throwing for just 84 yards last week on 18 attempts.
The offense is the clear strength of the team, but it clearly just doesn't have the same juice without Houser. Plus, opponents now have tape on Clayton.
Following their upset win over Oregon, I could see the Illini coming out flat with Nebraska on deck next Friday, followed by games against UCLA, Northwestern and Iowa .
Meanwhile, I expect a rejuvenated Maryland effort for at least one game following Locksley's dismissal.
In the past, teams have benefited from a one-week bump following a midseason coaching change. For what it's worth, teams in this spot last season went 8-4 ATS with one of the non-covers coming from Auburn, which lost by seven in overtime as a 6.5-point underdogs.
Pick: Maryland +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
Old Dominion has been the worst team in the country to back against the spread in 2026.
The Monarchs, who have the worst average cover margin in all of FBS, have just one cover on the season, which came against Appalachian State in a game you can almost throw out since it was played in a monsoon.
ODU's veteran defense hasn't been the problem. All of the issues come on the other side of the ball.
Name a random offensive statistic. In all likelihood, the Monarchs rank in the bottom three nationally in that department. In fact, they rank dead last in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate, which is quite an impressive feat.
They're averaging only 251 yards per game, which is also dead last in the country by a wide margin. For reference, Kent State averages the second-fewest at 286 yards per game, and last year's historically bad UMass team averaged only two yards fewer.
The same goes for yards per play, where they average almost at least a half-yard fewer than every other team in the nation.
So, what has gone wrong for Ricky Rahne's bunch? It all starts up front. ODU simply can't block anybody. I can confidently say the Monarchs have the worst offensive line in college football. The offensive tackle situation is particularly putrid.
Additionally, they just haven't been able to adequately replace all of the lost production from last year's squad. Just take a look at some of these losses:
QB Colton Joseph (Wisconsin)
RG Maarten Woudsma (Memphis)
RT Stephon Dubose-Bourne (graduation)
C Ryan Joyce (graduation)
LG Skyler Grant (Memphis)
LT Zach Barlev (graduation)
WR Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (Maryland)
WR Ja'Cory Thomas (Vanderbilt)
WR Tre' Brown III (LSU)
TE Jailen Butler ( Kansas )
TE Dawson Johnson (Tulane)
Those are the top 11 players (most of whom were multi-year starters) in terms of snap counts from the 2025 offense. They all departed along with offensive coordinator Kevin Decker, who also darted for Memphis.
To make matters worse, Old Dominion will be without starting quarterback Quinn Henicle, whose ability to create with his legs was one of the only redeeming qualities of this offense.
Ryan Huff will likely make another start, and he just doesn't bring that same needed element behind a decrepit offensive line.
The freshman signal-caller has a revolting 48% pressure-to-sack ratio on the season. For reference, UTEP's Raymond Moore has the second-worst at 36%. On 29 dropbacks under pressure, Huff has incredibly completed only three passes!
One might assume Marshall 's miserable defense may provide the perfect opportunity for this ODU offense to finally show signs of life, but I just don't see it.
The Thundering Herd have actually started to improve on that side of the ball after making some tweaks to the rotation (especially up front) in recent weeks, which doesn't surprise me under highly respected new defensive coordinator Brad Lambert.
Take a look at their two most recent performances:
outgained Coastal Carolina, 505-308
outgained South Alabama, 328-326
They won the latter, 20-13, but actually dropped the game against Coastal due to six turnovers.
Original starting quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson was responsible for four of those giveaways in just 16 minutes of action.
Head coach Tony Gibson then pulled him from the game and went with a combination of Zion Turner and the more mobile Khalil Wilkins, who provided a nice spark to the offense.
That's the combination you can expect moving forward with Del Rio-Wilson now buried on the depth chart.
That duo can provide enough offense to get this done against an ODU stop unit that may be down a pair of key starters.
I just don't think we've reached the bottom of the market yet on Old Dominion, which just doesn't have a functional FBS offense. Conversely, I'm not sure the market has fully priced in Marshall's recent defensive improvement and the upgrade at quarterback given Del Rio-Wilson's excessive turnover issues.
Plus, Marshall comes in as the much fresher and healthier team, having played only one game over the past 20 days, while Old Dominion will be playing its ninth consecutive contest to start the season with its bye week not coming until Week 11 this year.
Old Dominion is 1-7 ATS with the nation's worst cover margin of -10.7.
Pick: Marshall -2.5 (Play to -3)
Kansas State is in trouble here without starting quarterback Avery Johnson , who did so much for this offense with both his arm and legs.
Despite missing last game, he still remains the Wildcats' leading rusher on the season while averaging an insane 9.1 yards per attempt.
Kansas State will also be without backup quarterback Jacob Knuth, who got the start last week at Arizona State. That leaves Blake Barnett (who has attempted only five career passes vs. Nicholls State) and Dillon Duff, who have also both been dealing with injuries.
Head coach Collin Klein even suggested they were potentially going to need to use an emergency quarterback in Tempe last week, which would have been running back Joe Jackson, who also got banged up last week.
It's an absolute mess. Barnett can run a bit, so I'd expect Kansas State to lean into the ground game, but that's playing right into the hands of Colorado 's defense, which ranks ninth nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed.
The Buffs have been vulnerable against opposing aerial attacks, but Kansas State has one of the least explosive passing offenses in the country, even with Johnson at the helm. I just don't think the Wildcats can exploit the obvious holes of Colorado's stop unit.
Lastly, Colorado has played a much tougher slate to date. Per Sagarin, the Buffaloes have played the 12th-most difficult schedule through eight weeks, while Kansas State ranks 70th in that department.
In October alone, Colorado has played Oklahoma State, Utah and Texas Tech, with the latter two coming at home in games it actually won the box score:
vs. Utah: +2 net yards per play in a 3-point loss
vs. Texas Tech: 375-314 yardage edge but failed on three fourth-down attempts with a -4 turnover margin
And prior to that, Colorado played road games against Baylor, Northwestern and Georgia Tech. This will certainly be a step down in class for Coach Prime's pack.
This is a tough spot for the Wildcats, who will head to altitude for their second straight West Coast road game with major quarterback uncertainty and a poor matchup on paper.
As long as Isaac Wilson doesn't turn the ball over too much (which is certainly a possibility), the Buffaloes should win this game, as their offense has moved the ball significantly better since making the change at quarterback.
Since 2005, Colorado has been the least profitable FBS team in conference games away from home with an appalling 33-60-1 ATS mark (35.5%).
However, in Boulder, the Buffaloes have fared much better with a 48-41-2 (53.9%) ATS mark, including 11-4 (73.3%) under Deion Sanders.
Pick: Colorado +2.5 (Play to -1.5)
For starters, I just don't see much difference between these two teams from a power-ratings perspective. They essentially have identical yards-per-play margin, with the Owls even playing the slightly more difficult schedule.
Temple also fits the profile of a spot I have talked about countless times in this piece with a team coming off a bye facing an opponent that blew them out in the previous season.
That's certainly applicable here, as the Pirates won in blowout fashion last year, 45-14, in Philly.
The Owls should be the much fresher team, especially considering ECU is coming off back-to-back overtime losses on the road. I could see Blake Harrell's bunch coming out a bit flat to start.
Conversely, I expect a fully focused effort from Temple following an embarrassing home loss to Charlotte prior to the bye week.
That prompted head coach K.C. Keeler (who I love to back as a 'dog) to make sweeping staff changes on the defensive side of the ball, so I'd expect a few wrinkles and rotation changes that could surprise ECU.
From a matchup perspective, this will be good on good when Temple has the ball and the opposite when ECU is on offense. You can attack this Temple team through the air, but that's certainly not a strength of this ECU offense.
Meanwhile, it won't be a walk in the park for the Temple offense (which should get some key pieces back following the bye week) against a stout ECU defense, but I believe it can scheme up enough explosives to potentially pull off this small upset on the road where Temple has been pretty feisty this season.
The Owls won at South Florida in a similar price range (and matchup) and led Toledo by 14 in the Glass Bowl with under two minutes remaining in regulation before falling by one in overtime in one of the unluckiest losses of the entire season to date.
The Owls also had a very unfortunate loss vs. Army, so they could easily be sitting at 4-3 on the season instead of 2-5.
ECU just doesn't have a consistent enough offense to lay this sort of number against a Temple team that finds itself in a great situational spot.
Keep in mind, the Pirates have just three wins on the season against Rice, Old Dominion (by 3) and NC Central. Keeler will have his kids ready to go on Saturday afternoon.
Temple head coach K.C. Keeler has gone 22-13-2 ATS (62.9%) as an underdog.
Pick: Temple +6 (Play to +4.5)
This looks like a prime opportunity to buy low on the Panthers while also selling at what may mark the peak of the market on Liberty.
FIU heads up north following back-to-back losses to Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee by a combined six points. Meanwhile, the Flames have won six straight, but just take a look at who those wins have come against:
Gardner Webb (by 1)
Ball State
Coastal Carolina
Delaware (with backup quarterbacks)
Sam Houston
Kennesaw State
I have all six power-rated as bottom-20 teams (including Delaware without quarterback Nick Minicucci). That's the easiest stretch in the country by a wide margin.
Per Sagarin, Liberty has the 140th-ranked strength of schedule (including FCS teams), and that doesn't factor in Delaware playing without its best player.
In fairness, FIU has also played one of the nation's easiest schedules, but we have seen its very underrated defense play up against an explosive FAU offense, holding the Owls to just 16 points.
This will definitely serve as a major step up in class for the Liberty offense.
FIU has some very formidable edge rushers who could pose problems for quarterback Deshawn Purdie, who has folded under pressure this season.
Purdie has superb surface stats with nine touchdown s to zero interceptions, but he has a very pedestrian 9:8 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio on the season, per PFF .
He has certainly got away with a number of throws against some impoverished defenses. The turnovers are coming.
Speaking of which, the Flames also may have some negative looming fumble regression on the horizon. They've been one of the luckiest teams in the country in that department, losing only five of their own 12 fumbles while recovering every opponent loose rock.
FIU's offense is certainly nothing to write home about, but its defense can help keep this within two touchdowns.
FIU head coach Willie Simmons has gone 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog, covering by nearly 14 points per game on average.
Pick: FIU +14 or Better
I loved Minnesota last week vs. Iowa, but the Gophers certainly were very lucky to pull off that upset.
They got outgained, 288-209, but benefited from four Iowa turnovers (including a pair of crazy interceptions in their own territory), a key fourth-down Hawkeyes penalty, and one of the most disastrous special teams performances you'll ever see under Kirk Ferentz.
It was truly Murphy's Law for Iowa.
Now, Minnesota has to head to Bloomington following that emotional upset to face an Indiana team looking for a get-right game following clashes against Nebraska (in windy conditions), Ohio State and Michigan.
This will be a much easier task for the Indiana offense, which is looking to break out following three straight lackluster performances.
We will see how healthy quarterback Josh Hoover looks after dealing with a right arm injury he suffered against the Buckeyes.
He certainly hasn't looked right since, but he will have opportunities to hit some open receivers vs. the Gophers, who got roasted by the only competent offense they've faced all season in Mississippi State, which beat them by 28 in Minneapolis.
And just think about the broken offenses Minnesota has faced in its wins this season:
Michigan
Iowa
Akron
Eastern Illinois
Washington
Indiana should have no issues getting its ground game going against a weak interior Minnesota defensive line that should get pushed around all game. Plus, the Hoosier tackles can neutralize the Minnesota edge rush, led by Anthony Smith.
While I do have some concerns about the Indiana offense, I have none when it comes to the other side of the ball.
I just don't see how Minnesota moves the ball against Indiana's elite rush defense. The Gophers have had one of the nation's worst rushing attacks to date, ranking in the bottom five in the country in both Success Rate and EPA.
Therefore, this will all come down to quarterback Drake Lindsey dropping back to pass in known passing situations. That likely won't end well behind an offensive line that has two clear key weaknesses that Indiana's dominant front can exploit.
Lindsey should be under constant pressure, where he has not fared well, to say the least.
On the season, he has completed just 19-of-43 passes (44.2%) under pressure with no touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging two fewer yards per attempt.
Indiana also runs one of the country's highest zone rates on the back end, which could spell disaster for Lindsey, who has struggled vs. zone looks all season.
Expect some Lindsey mistakes that lead to some short fields. I mean, the Hoosiers eventually have to recover a fumble, right? It's recovered one of its 10 opponent fumbles this season, while Minnesota has been on the better side of bounces in its games.
You have to beat this Indiana defense over the top, and that is just not this Minnesota offense, which needs to methodically move the ball down the field through the air. I wish it well against Bryant Haines' vaunted defense.
One could make a case Indiana may be gassed following three close games in marquee games ahead of its ninth straight game to start the season prior to its bye week.
That's a viable case, but I don't think it applies as much to the Hoosiers, who are relatively healthy and play at a slower tempo. This is just too good of a number and matchup to pass up, especially with Minnesota off a major (lucky) upset.
Following their last upset win at home over Michigan when the Gophers headed to the Hoosier State, they lost by 28 at Purdue in a game where the Boilermakers outgained them, 305-27, on the ground.
I anticipate a similar result on Saturday even if Hoover is less than 100% healthy.
Over the past two seasons, Minnesota is 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in true road games, failing to cover by 11 points per game. Four of those losses have come by margins of 28, 29, 38 and 39.
Pick: Indiana -19.5 (Play to -20.5)
What are we going to get from the Buckeyes without starting quarterback Julian Sayin ? That's hard to say, but I'm confident it won't look as clean with either Luke Fahey, Tavien St. Clair or a combination of both.
Sayin has issues against elite defensive fronts due to his lack of mobility, but he would have carved up this USC defense.
You'd think the Buckeyes would want to lean on their ground game with a freshman making his first career start on the road, but they haven't been great in that department.
Ohio State's ground game ranks 98th in yards per carry and 123rd in explosiveness . And USC's defense actually grades out very well in yards before contact allowed.
As a result, Ohio State will need help from its inexperienced quarterbacks in order to sustain drives. I have my doubts even with Jeremiah Smith (who will get his as always) on the field.
If I'm USC, I'm keeping Prophet Brown over the top of Smith all game and daring Fahey or St. Clair to throw to anybody else. I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them forces a throw to Smith that ends in disaster at some point.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State once again has an elite defense under coordinator Matt Patricia, but this unit has clearly taken a step back from last year's historically dominant group.
One of the primary problems has been the lack of pressure. That may prove problematic against USC quarterback Jayden Maiava , who has been one of the nation's most lethal passers when kept clean in the pocket.
Just take a look at the discrepancy in his numbers:
When kept clean: 72.4% completion percentage, 18 TDs, 2 INTs, 0.8% TWP, 77% ADJ, 9 YPA
Under pressure: 37.7% completion percentage, 1 TDs, 3 INTs, 6% TWP, 48.8% ADJ, 5.4 YPA
That's a stark contrast.
I also believe the Trojans may get back stud freshman tight end Mark Bowman from injury, while there's a chance star nickel Jay Timmons may miss due to injury for the Buckeyes, which would be a significant loss.
The bye certainly came at the right time for Ryan Day's bunch following Sayin's injury, so there's a chance this staff just has a pristine game plan and everybody plays up knowing Sayin is out.
There's also potential rare October rain in the forecast for Los Angeles on Saturday, which probably would benefit the Buckeyes, especially since USC just can't find any consistency in its rushing attack.
However, I'm still OK buying low on the Trojans at a touchdown or better following a disgusting effort in Madison last weekend. That's certainly not the first time we've seen a Lincoln Riley team fall flat on its face on the road, and it won't be the last.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is coming off an extremely lucky win vs. Indiana where all of the field-goal and fourth-down variance went its way.
Ohio State scored touchdowns on each of its fourth-down attempts in that game, while Indiana went 0-for-2 (and missed two field goals), including stepping out of bounds on a wide-open game-winning touchdown in the final minute.
On the season, Ohio State has now converted 12-of-16 fourth downs, while its opponents have converted just 3-of-12. Don't be surprised if a couple of key fourth downs break USC's way on Saturday evening.
In home conference games, Lincoln Riley has gone a respectable 21-19 ATS (52.5%). On the road? An abysmal 13-27-1 ATS (32.5%).
Pick: USC +7 (Play to +6)
Can Miami avoid looking ahead to next week's showdown with Notre Dame? I wouldn't be shocked if we see the Hurricanes make a few sloppy mistakes this weekend in Chapel Hill.
If so, UNC can potentially threaten to pull off a major upset. This Heels team has been much feistier than many had anticipated prior to the season.
They've also played one of the nation's most difficult schedules and one that has been far tougher than the slate Miami has faced to date. Per Sagarin, UNC's strength of schedule ranks 18th, while Miami sits at 62nd.
The Hurricanes also have major issues in coverage in part due to injuries in the secondary. They somehow let Tait Reynolds throw for 300 yards and made Ashton Daniels look like prime Tom Brady in a controversial overtime win over Florida State.
Wake Forest also moved the ball up and down the field earlier this season but just continuously shot itself in the foot with failed fourth-down attempts and penalties.
The Miami run defense has been tremendous, but that strength is neutered a bit in this matchup since the Heels can't really run the ball anyway.
I have faith offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino can scheme up enough on offense to exploit some of Miami's issues in coverage, especially over the middle of the field, and tackling after the catch.
The Miami offense is obviously elite, led by a pair of Heisman hopefuls in quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney.
However, if there's one coach who can at least try to contain Toney, it's Belichick, who's probably the best in the history of the sport at taking away an opponent's strong suit.
UNC also excels at limiting explosives, so it will force Miami to methodically drive the field, which is desirable when backing a two-touchdown underdog.
And maybe UNC's outstanding defensive line can force a fumble or two along the way. The Heels are certainly overdue to recover a couple in a matchup of one of the unluckiest teams in the country vs. one of the luckiest when it comes to fumbles through eight weeks.
Miami has yet to lose one while recovering every opponent fumble. Meanwhile, UNC has lost five of its six fumbles while recovering only two of its six opponent fumbles.
Don't be surprised if Miami gets caught peeking ahead to Notre Dame and UNC keeps this close by limiting Toney and exploiting some of Miami's defensive issues with some potential fumble luck along the way.
Mario Cristobal is just 10-15 ATS (40%) as a favorite of more than two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick is 3-0 ATS vs. ranked foes, covering by nearly 10 points per game on average.
