The Chicago Cubs are going to have to replace what feels like most of their pitching rotation this offseason.
Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman and Matthew Boyd are among their pending free agents.
It's either replace them or bring them back, but that won't be particularly simple. The money might not add up all the way.
The Boyd outlook seems like it'll be the one worth watching the most closely. Boyd, unlike the others, seems more primed for a return to Chicago.
Boyd could be the cheapest of the Cubs' potential free agents. He could also be the most interested in returning to Wrigley Field.
There's no way to know for sure until the negotiations begin to play out, but the analysis across the sport over the last few months has suggested that Boyd and the Cubs make sense to stay together.
That's also what Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors thinks in an article he wrote earlier this week.
"There aren't too many multi-year deals for free agent starters aged 36 and up in recent seasons, but he has a chance to add his name to the list this winter and, if not, he ought to command a pretty nice one-year salary," Adams writes about the lefty. "Boyd is a borderline QO candidate, given the Cubs' deep pockets, their strong preference for short-term pitching deals, and the fact that they're losing an entire rotation's worth of arms to free agency."
The Cubs have to pursue someone out of their departing group. Boyd may just be the guy.
It's worth noting that Boyd has a $15 million mutual option in his contract. If he chose to exercise it, the Cubs probably would, too — but it's probably just a low enough value that he may opt-out and pursue more.
For years, it looked like Boyd would mostly be done pitching in the major leagues. Injuries and ineffectiveness had knocked him off his path.
But over the past few seasons, Boyd has shown himself to be a reliable arm once again.
While there's no telling how long Boyd's effectiveness will last, it sure seems like a safe bet right now.
"Boyd didn't reach 100 innings in a season from 2020-24, but he's started 53 games with a 3.50 ERA over what's turned out to be a bargain two-year, $29MM deal with the Cubs," Adams writes. "He's not going to challenge for a Cy Young Award in 2027, but Boyd can reasonably be expected to contribute 140-ish innings with a below-average strikeout rate but good command and plenty of weak contact."
Boyd does have the recipe to age gracefully since he isn't all about strikeouts. Someone is likely going to get a good pitcher, and it remains to be seen whether it'll be the Cubs.
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