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Decision Day: Predicting the Eastern Conference's key playoff races
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- Decision Day: Predicting the Eastern Conference's key playoff races
Decision Day: Predicting the Eastern Conference's key playoff races
By J. Sam Jones
Decision Day is almost here.
The Eastern Conference field has less drama ahead than the Western Conference – we already know all nine of its Audi 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs-bound teams – but the day should still live up to its namesake as several key items get sorted.
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Here are some stone-cold lock-of-the-century predictions on how it will all play out.
Disclaimer: Most of these predictions will probably be wrong. C'mon. It's MLS. I've been writing about this league for like a decade. No one has ever gotten a single MLS prediction correct. Not one person. It's never happened. This is the bar I'm attempting to clear. Mondo Duplantis has set the height, and I've been handed a stick from my backyard instead of a vaulting pole.
1. Who gets the No. 2 seed?
Prediction: New England surpass Inter Miami
Inter Miami defeated New England last weekend, 2-1 , and leapt into second place in the East. The Herons now have a one-point advantage over the Revs heading into Decision Day. A couple of things are working in New England's favor, though.
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First, as weird as it sounds, Miami being at home isn't necessarily a boost. They've actually been notably worse at Nu Stadium this year, averaging 1.63 points per game at home compared to 1.94 ppg on the road. In fact, Miami have the fewest home wins (six) of the East's nine playoff teams. Add in how they're hosting a solid Charlotte FC side (4 pm ET | Apple TV ) and nothing is a given on Saturday… although we should note Charlotte will be without star attacker Allan Saint-Maximin due to an, um, innovative red card.
Meanwhile, the Revs visit an Orlando side that, to be blunt, defends their own net with wishes and dreams (4 pm ET | Apple TV ). The Lions have allowed 78 goals this year, the most of any team in the East. That total would tie them for the MLS record for goals allowed in a season if this year's Sporting Kansas City team didn't exist. Even with Orlando's attacking firepower, this is a very winnable match. The Revs faced this same Orlando team back on Sept. 19 and won 4-2 , after all.
2. Charlotte or Chicago host in Round One?
Prediction: Charlotte will host Chicago in Round One
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Ok, I've already backed myself into a corner with my first prediction. I've got fifth-place Charlotte beating Miami, even without Allan Saint-Maximin (4 pm ET | Apple TV ). To be fair, Charlotte were outstanding last week with 4-0 wins over both Montréal and Orlando. Neither of those teams are world-class defensively, but points to the scoreboard .
Charlotte enter Decision Day two points behind fourth-place Chicago . The Fire will now host a red-hot Columbus side that's won five in a row and seven of their last eight (4 pm ET | Apple TV ). It's not far-fetched to think Chicago could stumble here; they haven't been world-beaters lately. And questions have surfaced during the second half of the season where you couldn't help but wonder if they made the right decision when they jettisoned former striker Hugo Cuypers for Robert Lewandowski . Just last weekend, Lewandowski scored for the first time in eight matches in a 4-2 win at Colorado to give him 7g/5a in 18 matches since arriving midseason.
A Charlotte win and a Chicago draw would put both sides on 56 points. However, Charlotte would equal Chicago's win total. That means we'd move to the next tie-breaker (goal differential), and Charlotte have the advantage there.
3. Wild Card teams?
Prediction: Cincinnati & Orlando meet in the Wild Card match
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I'll go ahead and give Columbus the win outright at Chicago (4 pm ET | Apple TV ). And since I've already given ninth-place Orlando a loss against New England (4 pm ET | Apple TV ), that leaves FC Cincinnati as the decisive team in the Wild Card race.
Yes, seventh-place Philadelphia could technically fall back to eighth place with a big loss, a big Crew win and a Cincy defeat, but that feels like too many variables. It also feels like too much for Toronto to pull off at Philadelphia (4 pm ET | Apple TV ). The Reds lacked energy at Atlanta last weekend, and that was with their playoff hopes on the line. I'm doubtful they'll bring more spirit this week.
Anyway, Cincy are in seventh place, just two points ahead of Columbus. If the Crew beat Chicago, Cincinnati will need a win against Supporters' Shield champions Nashville to avoid dropping down a spot (4 pm ET | Apple TV ). Nashville can set a new single-season points record with a draw, or make the mark even harder for the next team to reach with a win. They'll be highly motivated to hold Cincy at bay.
In the end, here's my best guess at the East field after Decision Day:
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Nashville SC
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New England Revolution
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Inter Miami CF
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Charlotte FC
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Chicago Fire FC
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Philadelphia Union
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Columbus Crew
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FC Cincinnati
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Orlando City
There ya go, way-too-online readers and social media admins. There's your screenshot. It's my Decision Day gift to you.
