For most of Patrick Mahomes' career, NFL executives have treated Kansas City as the AFC's default answer until somebody proves otherwise. Coming off a 6-11 season and a major knee injury, that benefit of the doubt is suddenly much harder to find.
Six executives ranked the AFC for The Athletic, and the Chiefs landed sixth overall with an average ranking of 5.7. Only one voter placed Kansas City in the Super Bowl-contender tier, with Mahomes' health, the offensive tackles, and a rebuilt secondary driving the skepticism.
"Mahomes coming off the knee, they lose the corners in the offseason, those are all good players, right?" an executive who ranked Kansas City fifth told The Athletic . "I'm a little skeptical how they are going to replace those corners. We know Mahomes is good, but I don't know how healthy he is."
Another executive went directly at the part of Mahomes' game that has tortured defenses for years.
"They need tackles, and we don't know if Mahomes can move," the executive said. "That's one team that could really go either way."
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There is evidence pushing back on the bleakest version of that concern. Mahomes underwent surgery on Dec. 15 to repair ACL and LCL tears in his left knee, but he was cleared for full training-camp participation in July and worked with the first-team offense throughout camp.
Kansas City held him out of the preseason by design, and the latest update has him on track to start Week 1.
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The Chiefs have also seen his movement in practice. During an Aug. 18 session, Mahomes rolled right, stopped suddenly to evade a defender, and threw a touchdown to Rashee Rice, a sequence the team's practice report highlighted as evidence of his progress.
The skepticism is not only about the knee. Kansas City traded two-time All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams, while Jaylen Watson signed with Los Angeles in free agency. Safety Bryan Cook also left for Cincinnati.
The Chiefs attacked the problem by trading up in the draft for LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane at No. 6 overall and bringing L'Jarius Sneed back to Kansas City. Still, they are asking a young secondary to replace substantial experience immediately.
Protection is unsettled, too. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons missed Wednesday's practice after a back issue "flared up," according to Andy Reid, while Jaylon Moore currently sits atop the depth chart at right tackle.
Mahomes' 2025 season had already shown cracks before the injury. He finished with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while posting a 79.0 PFN QB Impact grade, No. 11 among qualifying quarterbacks.
Kansas City opens Sept. 14 against Denver. By then, the Chiefs should know whether Mahomes can start. The executives' larger question is whether he can still move like Mahomes once the hits are real.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
