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Draft 101: Can Alabama's Ty Simpson Be an NFL Franchise Quarterback?
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- Draft 101: Can Alabama's Ty Simpson Be an NFL Franchise Quarterback?
The 2026 NFL draft begins on Thursday, April 23, which means there's precious little time left to make sense of so many things that require clarity. In an attempt to bring more signal to the noise, Athlon Sports' Doug Farrar is doing a series of videos designed to simply explain this draft's most polarizing subjects.
Welcome to Draft 101.
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Doug begins with a potential $10 million question: Is Alabama's Ty Simpson worthy of a first-round pick as a future NFL franchise quarterback? Most experts put Simpson on the verge of the first and second rounds, but you know how quarterbacks can be overdrafted based purely on positional value. Let's get forensic with the question of Ty Simpson , Future Franchise Quarterback... Or Not.
If you're an NFL team in the market for a franchise quarterback, 2026 is not your ideal year. The free agent market consisted of Malik Willis , who signed with the Miami Dolphins based on 97 snaps and 35 passing attempts with the Green Bay Packers in the 2025 season . Then, there's Aaron Rodgers , whenever he decides if he's coming back for a 22nd year, and a bunch of absolute career backups like Mitchell Trubisky , Marcus Mariota , and Gardner Minshew II.
Things don't look much better in the draft. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the one draft prospect who looks like a future franchise quarterback, but he's also a lead-pipe lock to go first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders , and the Las Vegas Raiders aren't trading that pick. Beyond that, there's a variance of third-day guys like LSU 's Garrett Nussmeier , Miami's Carson Beck , Penn State 's Drew Allar , Vanderbilt 's Diego Pavia , and Arkansas' Taylen Green .
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Related: 2026 NFL Draft Preview: Best Quarterback Fits
The man in the middle here is Alabama's Ty Simpson. In 2025, his one season as a college starter, the 6-foot-1 ⅛", 211-pound Simpson completed 306 of 474 passes for 3,561 yards, 28 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.5. Simpson also ran the ball 70 times for 292 yards and two touchdowns.
The stats look good, but what do they mean regarding Simpson's NFL transition? Let's get a bit more granular. When under pressure last season, Simpson completed 58 of 111 passes for 703 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 75.0. But when blitzed, Simpson was lights-out — 121 completions in 208 attempts for 1,409 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 95.6.
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Simpson was good enough outside the pocket on designed plays and improvisations, completing 47 of 89 passes outside the pocket for 454 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 88.9. He's more than functionally mobile; he can add the QB run game to your offense to a point, though he isn't Lamar Jackson .
On the surface, Simpson would seem to have everything on the ball for NFL success, but the concerns are also there, and they're real. To start, the history of NFL quarterbacks with only one year of starting experience at a major program is… not great. For every Cam Newton who's able to do it, there are five Mitchell Trubiskies, Mark Sanchezes, Ryan Tannehills, Trey Lances, and Anthony Richardsons who couldn't quite hit the mark. The reason is pretty clear – if you haven't had the time to decipher college defenses at a comfortable level, NFL defenses can easily turn you out and never let you back in.
The inexperience shows up on Simpson's tape in some disconcerting ways.
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Simpson has not yet learned to consistently throw with anticipation, which means that he will not throw his receivers open as much as he will put the ball in danger by taking an extra hitch until he sees what he needs to see on the field. The problem with this is that by the time you see an open receiver and throw the ball to him, that receiver will not be open when the ball gets there. This is evident far too often, and while it can be mitigated to a point by the NFL's trend to pure progression reads, where the quarterback throws to spots based on matchups as opposed to deciding what to do based on what the defense does schematically, you can't be a top-tier NFL quarterback until and unless you can consistently throw with anticipation. You're simply leaving too many opportunities on the field if you can't..
And while Simpson did complete 26 of 62 passes of 20 or more air yards last season for 784 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 101.2 (pretty good for higher-risk throws), you need to watch the tape to get the context. And here's where Simpson's hesitation to throw before the opening is clear affects his potential once again.
The lack of anticipation also means that Simpson will telegraph too many of his throws. He's unlikely to fool defenders at the NFL level as much as he will be fooled, as he'll be seeing a lot more varied fronts, fake motions, and coverage switches at the NFL level. Moreover, since he doesn't have what you'd call next-level arm talent, he asks his receivers to do a lot of the work.
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NFL teams might shine Simpson's late-season struggles on with the gastritis he dealt with in the season's second half. From Week 1 through Week 11, Simpson completed 198 of 296 passes for 2,461 yards, 21 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 114.7. From Week 12 through Alabama's Rose Bowl Quarterfinal loss to Indiana, where Simpson suffered a cracked rib and left in the second quarter, he completed 108 of 178 passes for 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 82.1.
And the problem with making too much of Simpson's early-season success is that the NFL transition issues were still there. Which is why you can't look at college quarterbacks beating up on college defenses and make any sort of empirical judgment; you have to look at the transitive attributes and liabilities.
At the scouting combine, Simpson did his best to argue his case.
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"With the infrastructure that they had and the guys from Coach Saban, Coach [Kelen] DeBoer, Coach [Ryan] Grubb, all the coordinators that I had before, you know, I run an NFL-type system," Simpson said at the combine during his podium session with the media. "It's definitely prepared me for saying those long play calls, saying those checks, you know, making sure that I get us in the right protection.
"And also, everybody talks about my stars [on offense], but I've played against really good NFL players. I think about my freshman year, right, like learning from the No. 1 overall pick and Heisman Trophy winner [ Bryce Young ], going on defense, going on scout team. I got Will Anderson , Dallas Turner , To'oTo'o. There's a number of, first- and second-round draft picks that I went against, and who I was in the locker room with."
Based on the tape I've seen, I would give Ty Simpson a mid- to low-second-round grade, and that's adjusting for inflation based on the fact that quarterbacks generally get overdrafted in line with their actual skill sets. He's a relatively high-floor, low-ceiling player with decent tools and nothing spectacular that stands out and makes you think, "Hey, we can take these traits and make the most of them." He's more of a generic quarterback than a force multiplier; he will need to be in a highly-structured offense where he's playing the hits as opposed to writing them.
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Given that NFL teams generally want to be safe with their quarterback picks at the same time they're swinging wildly on undeveloped traits more often than not, I could see Simpson sneaking into the late first round as that kind of pick. On the surface, he seems safe. But when you really study Simpson's game, it's clear that he would be better off as a later pick with less pressure, and more time to master the nuances of the position.
If you bet on hope with limited quarterbacks, it's a good way to get yourself fired sooner than later. That's been true throughout pro football history.
And right now, that is the Ty Simpson conundrum.
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
