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The East Carolina Pirates take on the UAB Blazers in Birmingham, Alabama, on Thursday, Oct. 15. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
East Carolina is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -178. UAB, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +146 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here's my East Carolina vs. UAB predictionand college football pick for Thursday, October 15.
East Carolina vs. UAB Pick: UAB +4.5
My UAB vs. East Carolina best bet is on the Blazers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
East Carolina vs UAB Spread: East Carolina -4.5, UAB +4.5
East Carolina vs UAB Over/Under: 49.5
East Carolina vs UAB Moneyline: East Carolina ML -200, UAB ML +165
East Carolina comes in having won three straight games, including a 28-12 home victory over Rice last week in a game that was much more competitive than the final score would suggest.
Rice held a second-half lead, and ECU was frustrated offensively while struggling on third and fourth down to capitalize on lengthy drives.
The game was blown open late when ECU scored on 43- and 20-yard touchdown drives, but the inefficient play has continued on offense for the Pirates, who struggled to register explosive, chunk plays once again in this one.
The quarterback rotation between Mitch Griffis and Emory Williams has cultivated anxiety from both signal-callers, but Williams has separated himself of late and figures to be the starter moving forward.
Williams threw for just 143 yards against the Owls as the Pirates leaned on the run game, where TJ Engleman Jr. shined.
Engleman ran for 136 yards and a touchdown on just 14 rushing attempts, helping contribute to the 234 team rushing yards, which was ECU's best output of the season.
The East Carolina defense has been the strongest unit on the team this season, as head coach Blake Harrell has done an excellent job revamping the talent at all three levels of this defense.
The Pirates' front has a Havoc mindset that registered four sacks and 12 tackles for loss last week against Rice. The secondary has been strong, but the unit has faced three weaker passing offenses in a row, which have aided the metrics.
It will be a test on the road against UAB this week.
UAB has been much more competitive this season, and the Blazers are receiving significantly better coaching under Alex Mortensen than they ever did under the previous regime.
UAB competed well in the "Battle For The Bones" last week against Memphis , taking a halftime lead into the locker room while outgaining the Tigers, 254-139, by halftime.
However, the Blazers flubbed a red-zone opportunity, and a turnover set Memphis up for a scoring opportunity. Still, UAB has some solid pieces on both sides of the ball and has gone 3-0 at home this year.
The quarterback play has to get better. Ryder Burton has talent and can make some of the tougher throws look easy. The issue is the mistakes, turnovers and missing some of the easy throws.
Burton has completed just 55% of his passes with four touchdowns and five interceptions this year, but if UAB experiences more consistent play, it will unlock the rest of the pieces in this offense.
The ground game has been mediocre, which is a surprise given how much talent is in the backfield.
Rod Robinson II, Bam McReynolds and Ja'Vin Simpkins are talented running backs, but the offensive line has allowed too much activity in the backfield, which has thwarted efforts to even try to establish things on the ground.
UAB has two explosive receivers in Ty Mims and CJ Smith. These two are going to have to win the 1-on-1 battles in this game against ECU's coverage unit.
The UAB defense has actually been a fairly feisty unit this year, particularly against the pass. The Blazers have surrendered just 756 passing yards all season, and the coverage unit has given up just three passing touchdowns combined over its last five games.
The Blazers should be able to limit ECU's passing output, but this unit has to figure out a way to limit the damage on the ground if this team is going to stay in this game against the Pirates.
This line opened with ECU favored by 6.5 points, and the total was set at 50.5 early in the week. The total has come down significantly and sits at 47.5, while money coming in on UAB has brought this line down to where it currently sits.
The Blazers are listed as 4.5-point underdogs. I like UAB here and will play it at +4.5.
Much has been made about the strength of the ECU pass defense, which ranks ninth nationally in PPA Per Pass allowed and seventh in Passing Success Rate allowed.
The strength of the opponent should be considered here, as the Pirates have played Old Dominion and Rice, neither of which is designed to throw the football with regularity. Sandwiched in was a game against a struggling HBCU opponent.
Early in the season, this secondary was torched by both Alabama and App State through the air, as the Pirates gave up a combined nine yards per passing attempt.
The ECU defensive front is coming off a physical game against Rice, which saw the Owls run the ball 51 times. Now, with a quick turnaround, I expect the effectiveness of the defensive line to be reduced slightly.
I do think UAB can run the football and sustain possession while having more success in East Carolina territory. Situational execution has been solid at home, as the Blazers have converted 53% of third downs. I wouldn't be surprised to see UAB convert some key third downs at a high rate here.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are converting just 27% of third-down attempts this season, so the drives will have to be methodical against UAB.
ECU ranks 93rd nationally in early down Success Rate, so expect the Pirates to be in third-down situations a lot here. The Blazers are excellent in the secondary in defending the pass, and this unit will come up big on the money down in this game.
East Carolina has a terrible offensive line that allows a tremendous amount of Havoc, and the rushing offense has suffered from the poor play as well.
The Pirates have also fumbled the football 11 times in the first five weeks, with five of those cough-ups resulting in turnovers. UAB has an opportunistic defense that will force a couple of turnovers and put its team in solid positions to capitalize.
I don't see a ton of separation between these two teams. The inconsistent play, lack of a running game and fumbling issues will likely show up for the Pirates on the road.
This game feels like a field-goal game either way, and I project it to be low-scoring. I'll take UAB as a home 'dog to get it done in a big weekday home game that I think it can win outright.
Pick: UAB +4.5
