Story by
Eastern Michigan vs Ohio Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Saturday, Oct. 24
- Story by
- Eastern Michigan vs Ohio Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Saturday, Oct. 24
Dylan Widger-Imagn Images. Pictured: Ohio QB Nick Poulos.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google .
The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the Ohio Bobcats in Athens, Ohio, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Advertisement
Ohio is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -530. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +12.5 underdog and is +390 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here's my Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
-
Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
My Ohio vs. Eastern Michigan best betis on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Eastern Michigan vs Ohio Odds
-
Eastern Michigan vs Ohio point spread: Ohio -12.5 (-110), Eastern Michigan +12.5 (-110)
-
Eastern Michigan vs Ohio over/under: 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
-
Eastern Michigan vs Ohio moneyline: Eastern Michigan +390, Ohio -530
Eastern Michigan had won three consecutive games before getting completely overwhelmed by Toledo in a 34-14 loss, and while I'm not interested in overreacting to one ugly box score, the Eagles' offensive performance exposed several deficiencies that could make sustaining drives extremely difficult against Ohio .
Advertisement
EMU managed just 276 total yards on 71 offensive snaps, averaging 3.9 yards per play, while generating an embarrassing 34 rushing yards on 28 attempts.
That's 1.2 yards per carry. As Silvio Dante once said, "Disgusting."
Quarterback Noah Kim completed 16-of-36 passes for 214 yards and two touchdowns, but the Eagles converted just five of their 15 third-down opportunities and reached the red zone only twice.
Those numbers tell a much different story than simply looking at the 14 points.
Eastern Michigan couldn't consistently stay ahead of the chains, and once Toledo eliminated the rushing attack, the Eagles were forced into obvious passing situations where negative plays and incompletions repeatedly derailed possessions.
Advertisement
Running back Amareon Blue managed only 23 yards on seven carries, while tight end Joshua Long was one of the few bright spots, catching seven passes for 84 yards and a score.
Long gives Kim a reliable target, but I'm not convinced one productive receiving option is enough to overcome an offensive line that struggled to generate any movement at the point of attack.
The injury situation creates additional concerns.
Kim is listed as questionable, while wide receiver Nick Devereaux remains out and several other offensive contributors have appeared on the injury report.
That's particularly important for a team whose offensive efficiency is already being undermined by poor early-down production.
Advertisement
Even if Kim starts, EMU needs a substantial improvement in Rushing Success Rate and protection to prevent Ohio from consistently forcing third-and-long situations. As huge road dogs, this could be another disastrous performance from the offense.
Ohio enters this matchup at 5-2 and is laying nearly two touchdowns at home, but I'm not particularly interested in assuming the Bobcats will produce a massive offensive performance simply because they're the superior team.
The matchup gives Ohio a much more straightforward path toward controlling possession and limiting Eastern Michigan's scoring opportunities.
EMU's inability to establish the ground game against Toledo is especially concerning because it allows opposing defenses to play aggressively on early downs without consistently worrying about explosive rushing plays.
Advertisement
Ohio doesn't necessarily need to generate an overwhelming Defensive Havoc Rate to make this matchup lopsided. The Bobcats need to win at the line of scrimmage, force Kim into obvious passing situations and make the Eagles string together successful plays rather than allowing cheap explosives.
Considering how awful the Eagles were on offense last week, this should be another favorable matchup for the Bobs' defense.
That's an important development for this total because an injury-related reduction in offensive efficiency could limit Ohio's scoring ceiling even if the Bobcats control the game.
Given some injury uncertainty, I don't expect this to be a high-scoring contest.
Advertisement
The underlying argument is that Ohio should be capable of controlling the game defensively without needing to turn it into a shootout.
Its defense should perform well, and even if Kim suits up for the Eagles, expect him to be hobbling most of the afternoon.
This total is sitting at 48.5, and I think the market is asking Eastern Michigan to contribute more offensively than its recent performance justifies.
With Ohio favored by approximately 12.5 points, the implied score is roughly 30.5-18. I'm considerably more skeptical of the Eagles reaching 18 points than I am of Ohio producing something in the high 20s.
Advertisement
EMU managed only 34 rushing yards against Toledo, converted 33.3% of its third downs and struggled to create sustained scoring opportunities.
That's a brutal offensive profile heading into another road matchup against a quality MAC opponent.
The Havoc allowed and Finishing Drives components are particularly important because the Eagles don't need to self-implode for this to be a low-scoring game. A handful of negative plays, stalled possessions and unsuccessful red-zone trips could be enough.
There's also a reasonable game-script advantage for this game to sail under.
If Ohio establishes a two-score lead, the Bobcats should have opportunities to lean on the ground game and shorten possessions rather than consistently pushing the tempo.
Advertisement
I simply don't trust Eastern Michigan to generate enough successful plays to make this a competitive scoring environment.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
