Eli Manning has been a Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist in each of his two years on the ballot, and he has never survived the first cut. That fact tells you more about his candidacy than the two Super Bowl MVP trophies do, and it explains why PFN's Jacob Infante is willing to write off not just next year but the one after it.
"Not only do I think he won't make it in next year, but I don't think he'll make it in the year after that as well," Infante said on Football Debate Club .
He's right, and the reason runs deeper than a crowded ballot.
Manning didn't lose ground in February. He held still, which is worse than it sounds. In the Class of 2025 process, selectors reduced 15 modern-era finalists to 10, and he wasn't among them. In the Class of 2026 process, they did it again, cutting him alongside Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Jahri Evans and Kevin Williams. Two years as a finalist, two exits before the field reached a workable size.
The 2026 setup should have helped him. Philip Rivers forfeited his eligibility by signing with the Colts in December, pulling a direct positional rival off the ballot. Manning still didn't reach the final 10.
The field only gets harder from here. Willie Anderson, Terrell Suggs and Marshal Yanda all reached the final seven in February without clearing the 80 percent threshold, which locks them into finalist spots for 2027. Three of the 15 modern-era slots are spoken for before voting starts.
Then come the first-year candidates. Rob Gronkowski, Adrian Peterson and Ben Roethlisberger headline a group that also includes Richard Sherman, Andrew Whitworth, Eric Weddle and Cam Newton. Frank Gore, Jason Witten and Darren Woodson all made the final 10 in February and aren't going anywhere. Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft are still waiting after a stunning shutout.
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Classes are shrinking, too. Three modern-era players went in for 2025, part of a four-person class that was the smallest since 2005. Four went in for 2026, with Roger Craig arriving through the seniors pool. Fewer seats, more claimants, and Manning walks in as a candidate voters keep cutting early.
Infante frames the quarterback comparison bluntly. "He's got a better chance than Eli, seeing as [he] has two more Pro Bowls to his name, more passing yards, and more passing touchdowns," he said of Roethlisberger.
The gap holds up. Roethlisberger finished with 64,088 yards, 418 touchdowns and six Pro Bowls. Manning finished with 57,023 yards, 366 touchdowns and four Pro Bowls. Both won two Super Bowls. Voters who see the résumés as close will take the one with the better regular seasons, and Manning went 117-117 as a starter with no All-Pro selections and no MVP votes.
The natural fallback is that Manning waits out Roethlisberger and slides in behind him. Infante doesn't buy that either.
"And look, I do think that Eli is gonna make it into the Hall of Fame eventually, but I do think it's gonna be a couple more years just looking at the quarterbacks who are in the mix," he said.
Tom Brady becomes eligible for the Class of 2028. He goes in immediately. Infante points out that "there haven't been multiple quarterbacks selected into the same Hall of Fame class since 2016 when it was Brett Favre and Ken Stabler," which is accurate and actually understates the problem.
Stabler entered as a seniors selection. The last time two modern-era quarterbacks were elected in the same class was 2006, when Troy Aikman and Warren Moon went in together. That's a 20-year drought, and Manning is asking to end it in a year when Brady is the other name.
Matt Ryan lands on that 2028 ballot as well, carrying an MVP, a first-team All-Pro selection and nearly 6,000 more passing yards than Manning. Ryan isn't a lock. He's another body in a room Manning has never been able to talk his way out of.
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Manning's résumé is finished. It reads the same in 2030 as it does now, while the field around him keeps adding names that make his numbers look smaller.
He'll get to Canton. He just might not get there while the people who watched him win those two Super Bowls are still the ones voting.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
