AJ Brown is an injury-prone football player. There are no two ways about it. Since he entered the NFL, Brown has been listed with 12 total injuries. As of October 29, Brown is dealing with No. 13, amid a did-not-practice status on Thursday. Between a high-ankle sprain and a cited knee flare-up, the following highlights the Patriots' pass-catching usage should Brown be inactive.
I believe in an analytical approach that prioritizes playing time and offensive roles rather than pure receptions and touchdowns. If Brown is out in Week 8, the following players will be affected:
Brown has run over 30 routes in each of his last two games. Most of those come from outside alignment. Although Brown has played only three games this season, an analysis cannot simply go back to Week 5, when he last did not play.
Romeo Doubs had lined up exclusively as a perimeter wide receiver, and he is out for the season. Mack Hollins also played over two-thirds of his snaps on the outside. So the absence of Doubs and Hollins, along with the potential absence of Brown, shapes a new-look Patriots offense.
Kyle Williams is the No. 1 beneficiary should Brown be inactive. Over his last five games, Williams has a 49% route rate. He lines up exclusively outside, and if Brown is out, he will play at a very high snap share. No other Patriot wide receiver is as specialized in outside alignment.
DeMario Douglas is largely unaffected by a Brown absence. He plays almost all of his snaps from the slot. In Week 8, Douglas is already on my must-sit list , and this Brown news doesn't change that.
Efton Chism III is the next notable wide receiver on this depth chart. He is technically not a starter, but Chism should play a lot of snaps. Chism has a 55% route rate over his last four games. He plays both inside and outside. He has a target rate of 17% when running a route, and that can rise even further with Brown out, amid what could be at least a 75% route rate.
At the moment, the Patriots do not have another wide receiver on their active roster. If the Patriots were to activate another option, it might be Ryan Miller, who is on their practice squad. But the team does have four wide receivers on that practice squad, none of whom would likely play much.
Hunter Henry has scored in consecutive games. He only pass-blocks on 16% of his snaps, so a mild rise in target share is reasonable to consider for Henry. He would be a top-10 tight end this week.
Eli Raridon may also see a mild rise in target share and snap rate. Raridon pass-blocks on only 14% of his snaps and is targeted on 19% of his routes run this season.
Yards per Target Statistics are from Sharp Football Analysis.
The following focuses on Yards per Target Allowed. Touchdowns for non-running backs are often below 50% likely. Most players are below 30%, so fantasy managers must pay more attention to yards and receptions.
The Patriots play the Dolphins this Sunday. They rank dead last in EPA per Pass Allowed. They are 3rd-best in Fantasy Points Allowed to wide receivers, but the Dolphins are facing a lower pass rate this season, and they are still allowing about 12 yards per reception.
Williams lines up mostly outside, which the Dolphins rank 7th-worst in Yards per Target Allowed to outside wide receivers. Matchup: Good.
Douglas lines up mostly in the slot, where the Dolphins rank 8th in Yards per Target Allowed to slot wide receivers. Matchup: Good.
Chism runs nearly half of his routes from the slot and half outside. The Dolphins are almost equally bad against both. Matchup: Good.
Henry and Raridon have the best matchups, as the Dolphins rank 2nd-worst in Yards per Target Allowed to tight ends. Matchup: Fantastic.
Brown did not practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday. He is listed as having dual injuries: a knee issue and a high-ankle sprain, which is not yet 100% healed.
It does make sense that Brown is still nursing that ankle. Over his last two games, he has caught 6 of 16 targets for 75 yards. He is only averaging about 1.10 Yards per Route Run in that time (NFL Average = about 1.50).
It does not sound good that Brown suits up on Sunday. Even if he did, he surely will not be healthy enough to be trusted in fantasy football. Click here for waiver wire replacements.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as Fantasy Football Injury Impact: What Happens If AJ Brown Is Inactive Given Knee & Ankle Issues? .
