Fatal flaw that will doom Diamondbacks' NL Wild Card chances

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Fatal flaw that will doom Diamondbacks' NL Wild Card chances

Garrett Kerman, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Sep 2, 2026 ·

3 min read

A Bullpen Cracking Under Pressure

Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

For most of 2026, Arizona's relief corps was a legitimate strength, posting a stretch in May where the unit ran a 1.99 ERA over 12 games, the best mark in baseball at the time, and opponents managed just a .173 average against them. That version of the bullpen doesn't exist anymore. Over the last seven days, the Diamondbacks' relievers have combined for a bloated 5.26 ERA, a staggering collapse from the sub-2.00 numbers that defined their spring surge. Season-long, the unit ranks just 18th in MLB with a 4.17 ERA, a mediocre floor that becomes fatal when it craters further in high-leverage September games.

Now those cracks have become fissures. The Diamondbacks have blown nine saves on the season and are converting saves at just a 60.9% clip, one of the worse marks among contenders. Kevin Ginkel , once a reliable fireman with a sparkling 3.05 ERA in May, has ballooned to 4.26 on the year and posted an 18.00 ERA in his most recent stretch of outings. Dennis Santana has been even worse, sitting at a 6.05 ERA over 41.2 innings. When your middle relief and setup options are this inconsistent, close games in September turn into coin flips, and Arizona has been losing those flips.

The Schedule Is About to Punish the Weakness

Timing makes this flaw especially dangerous. The Diamondbacks are losing ground precisely as they enter a brutal stretch: after finishing their series with the Phillies , Arizona faces the Astros , Royals, Rangers, Marlins, Yankees , Rockies and Padres to close the season. That slate mixes formidable AL playoff contenders like Houston and New York with the exact kind of one-run, bullpen-decided games that have already gone wrong for Arizona this year. A shaky relief corps facing lineups like Houston's and New York's late in games is a recipe for the kind of losing skid that erases a half-game wild card lead entirely.

Compounding matters, Arizona's rivals for the final Wild Card berths, San Diego , Philadelphia and Chicago , are all playing better baseball right now. Philadelphia has won eight of its last ten and sits 6.0 games clear of the last spot, while San Diego has also settled into a groove ahead of the Diamondbacks in the standings. Arizona doesn't have the luxury of absorbing more bullpen-driven losses; every blown lead in the season's final month effectively hands the Wild Card race to a more consistent competitor.

Why It's Fatal, Not Just Concerning

A shaky bullpen is survivable in April. In September, with a half-game cushion and a schedule full of quality opponents, it becomes existential. Arizona's lineup and rotation have kept them competitive all year, generating a positive run differential for most of the season, but a relief corps blowing games in the sixth through ninth innings undoes all of that positional value. Unless manager Torey Lovullo can stabilize the back end of his bullpen in the next four weeks, the Diamondbacks' wild card bid will collapse under the weight of the same flaw that has haunted this franchise's relief units for years.