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Finding Comparable Contracts For Upcoming Demidov Extension
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- Finding Comparable Contracts For Upcoming Demidov Extension
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
There's still plenty of time for the Montreal Canadiens to sign Ivan Demidov before his entry-level contract runs out, but there's an important date in play that will likely hasten the process. More on that later.
Since Demidov burned a year of his contract early, he'll be a restricted free agent in 2027. Additionally, we don't have many players from the previous draft available to project his potential cost, as they're mostly still on their entry-level contracts as well.
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Knowing how much Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, or Will Smith will command would help in our projection, but for the time being, we have to dig a little further.
If we make our way to 2022, the draft in which the Canadiens picked Juraj Slafkovsky first overall, we start to have some decent comparables.
Both Slafkovsky and Logan Cooley have signed massive contract extensions, with the former agreeing to an eight-year deal that carries a $7.6 million annual average value (AAV), while the latter's eight-year deal carried a $10 million AAV .
And when we evaluate their points per game at the time of signing their new deal, we can see that they both produced less than Demidov.
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Slafkovsky: 121 games played, 60 points: 0.50 points per game.
Cooley: 157 games played, 109 points: 0.69 points per game.
Demidov: 84 games played, 64 points, 0.76 points per game.
We could take a look at contracts that were signed well before the aforementioned extensions, but the NHL's cap space has risen so quickly that deals signed a few years ago are essentially useless as comparisons for upcoming deals.
Ivan Demidov Brass Tacks
One of the critical factors in play is the upcoming collective bargaining agreement (CBA).
As of next season, the max contract length for players will be just seven years for players re-signing with the same team, rather than eight.
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The new CBA officially kicks in on September 16, which means the Canadiens have until September 15to sign Demidov to an eight-year deal, securing an additional free agency year in the process.
There's also the matter of the rising salary cap.
It will be $104 million in 2026-27 , and is expected to go up to $113.5 million the following year.
While this gives the Habs more financial manoeuvrability, it also gives some leverage to Demidov's agent, Daniel Milstein.
Considering this will likely be the biggest contract his client will ever sign, he will likely attempt to secure as much money as possible. It's only logical.
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On the flip side of the coin, the Canadiens have been rather rigid with their contract negotiations and salary structure.
They've paid star defenceman more than Nick Suzuki, but they're yet to sign a forward to a deal that is worth more than the captain's $7.875M (AAV). There's also the matter of needed cap space moving forward, to ensure the lineup will continue to improve as the team's ambitions grow.
I will never assume a player will take a 'home-town' discount, but the best teams have found a way to fit their star players in the lineup without destroying their salary structure, and the Canadiens would be wise to follow their lead.
However, if we leave all emotions aside, and base our projections on some of the most recent deals signed by young, elite players, there's a decent chance that Demidov's extension lands closer to the deal signed by Cooley, rather than the deal signed by Slafkovsky.
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The wild card would be signing a short-term deal with a much lower AAV, but the risk involved would be considerable, as Demidov's early results suggest the best is yet to come.
All Montreal Canadiens cap space via Cap Wages .
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