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At this point in the season, New York Giants fans have nothing but looking forward to but the 2026 NFL Draft. Even though the official order has yet to be set, it is almost officially mock draft season, and experts cannot come to a consensus on which direction the Giants will take.
As one of the most respected draft analysts, Pro Football Focus released its latest 2026 NFL mock draft on Monday. The mock has the Giants ending up with the No. 1 pick and using it as a trade piece , as many anticipate.
However, instead of trading the pick to the New York Jets , which has been a common prediction, PFF sees the Giants sending it to the Miami Dolphins , who then use it to take Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. The projected trade has the Dolphins receiving the No. 1 pick in exchange for the picks No. 10, No. 44, a 2027 first-rounder and a 2027 second-rounder.
With the new pick, PFF projects the Giants select Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at No. 10.
"The Giants are still crying out for difference-makers on defense," PFF analyst Gordon McGuinness wrote. "Downs is the top-rated player on the PFF big board but slips to New York here because of positional value. For a Giants team whose starting safeties both have earned sub-60.0 PFF overall grades in 2025, a player like Downs — who has earned PFF overall grades of 89.3 and 82.5 in coverage and run defense, respectively, this season — makes too much sense."
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With Mendoza trending more toward becoming the consensus No. 1 pick, the Giants would have no purpose in keeping it as they look to build around Jaxson Dart . Trading the selection also makes the most sense for a rebuilding organization that currently has just seven picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, five of which fall on Day Three.
With pieces like Dart, Malik Nabers , Cam Skattebo and Andrew Thomas returning, the Giants will almost certainly have a defensive focus in the 2026 NFL Draft. Drafting a player like Downs makes logistical sense; it is just not commonly seen in the top 10.
Downs is potentially the best defensive back prospect in over a decade, but it is almost taboo to take a safety in the top 10. Minkah Fitzpatrick was close, going at No. 11 in 2018, but a safety has not been taken in the top 10 since Jamal Adams went No. 6 in 2016.
That positional bias is the only reason Downs, whom many view as the top prospect of the draft, would fall this far. However, if this is how the draft actually plays out, it would have to be considered a win for the Giants.
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