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The Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on October 7, 2026. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The White Sox are favored by -123 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +103 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs White Sox predictionbelow, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs White Sox Pick: Cleveland Guardians 3-way F5 Moneyline (+134 — FanDuel, Play to +129)
My Guardians vs White Sox best bet is Guardians 3-way F5 Moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs White Sox moneyline:Guardians +103, White Sox -123
Guardians vs White Sox over/under:7.5 (-120o / -102u)
Guardians vs White Sox spread:White Sox -1.5 (+175), Guardians +1.5 (-208)
| Daniel Espino (RHP, CLE) |
Stat |
Sean Newcomb (LHP, CHW) |
| 0-0 |
W-L |
2-5 |
| 0.1 |
fWAR (FanGraphs) |
1.7 |
| 4.11 / 2.90 |
ERA / xERA |
3.09 / 4.27 |
| 3.75 / 2.69 |
FIP / xFIP |
3.21 / 3.97 |
| 27.7% |
K-BB% |
13.4% |
| 39.4% |
GB% |
44.4% |
| .300 |
BABIP |
.285 |
| 110 |
Stuff+ |
104 |
| 104 |
Location+ |
97 |
After missing the majority of four seasons due to a pair of shoulder surgeries, 2019 first-round selection Daniel Espino has shown plenty of promise for the Guardians this season, albeit in a very small sample of play. He will be trusted to get his side off to a good start in this do-or-die matchup, and while he is unproven, the upside is certainly there.
Espino held a 2.90 xERA and 2.68 xFIP across 15 and 2/3 innings in the regular season, as well as a 27.7% strikeout-minus-walk ratio. He has excellent stuff (110 Stuff+ rating), which is the key reason it's reasonable to believe his level of dominance amid a tiny sample of MLB work is sustainable.
Joey Cantillo worked behind Espino three times this season and held an ERA of 2.98 throughout his final 45 and 1/3 innings with a 4.23 xFIP. Cantillo is likely the most likely candidate to enter after Espino, but Foster Griffin is also an option. Griffin held a 3.60 ERA and 3.76 xFIP throughout 172 and 2/3 innings in the regular season and a 3.45 xFIP in his final five starts of the year.
Both managers will have interesting decisions in determining how to set their respective starting lineups in a matchup where we will likely see frequent pitching changes and pinch-hitters used. Stephen Vogt has proven to be savvy in this type of matchup, but Will Venable has pushed all the right buttons this season, and in the postseason in particular.
Lefty Sean Newcomb will make his third appearance of the postseason in this matchup and currently holds an ERA of 6.00 based on an ineffective inning in the Wildcard round. More notably, Newcomb's level of play really fell off down the stretch as he pitched to an xERA of 5.75 and an xFIP of 4.48 throughout his final 22 and 1/3 innings.
While Venable has better options available and Hagen Smith will likely enter in a critical spot, Davis Martin may be the most likely "bulk" option for the White Sox . Similarly to Newcomb, he was much less effective in the second half of the season, pitching to an ERA of 5.12 in 45 and 2/3 innings with a 5.45 xERA.
Though the Guardians' offense has fallen flat in the first two games of the series, their earlier pitching options in this do-or-die spot feel to be a fair bit more solid than the White Sox.
There's obviously a ton of variables in terms of who pitches in this matchup, but if the White Sox do go from Newcomb into Martin, Cleveland should have a good chance to get off to a strong start.
With the Guardians priced at +134 to win the first five innings, I'm willing to take a shot banking on their potential pitching edge early on in this matchup.
Pick: Guardians 3-way F5 Moneyline (+134 — FanDuel, Play to +129)
